The game itself will decide whether the tour has been a success but the state of the Springbok at the end of the penultimate year of this World Cup cycle may be underlined by running through the options for the match-day squad for Saturday’s final game against England at Twickenham.
The team for the game will be announced later on Tuesday, and it is hard to speculate from many thousands of kilometres away over what Jacques Nienaber will come up with, but it is an important selection as it will be the coach’s last chance to run his eye over his options before the serious business of the World Cup year starts next June/July.
Injury and some bravery in the selection process though has delivered a couple of possibilities that you wouldn’t have imagined would have been even countenanced just a few months ago.
Let’s start at the back. It has been learned that Damian de Allende sustained a knock in training on Monday and is doubtful for the game. And even if he does play, De Allende’s comfortable performance at outside centre against Italy in Genoa, coupled with the impact that Manie Libbok brought when he came onto the field at flyhalf, has opened the possibility for what could be a ground-shifting selection.
De Allende has played outside centre before in an emergency during games, and hasn’t always looked as comfortable as he did against Italy. And up until the Italy game, he might have been considered a certain selection at No12 as much of the Bok game revolved around his ability to take the ball up.
WILLEMSE IS A DAB 12
However, the other Damian, Damian Willemse, also happens to be a dab inside centre. In fact, Stormers coach John Dobson considers it his best position. It makes sense too, given his experience of flyhalf. Having Willemse, who he knows so well from playing with him at the Stormers, alongside him could just pave the way for Libbok to make his first start at pivot.
His performance as a replacement in Genoa certainly makes it a possibility, and yet, with Willie le Roux now looking settled again at fullback and also an important cog in the South African counter-attacking game, Willemse, who has worn the No 10 in the three previous tour matches, is too good a player to leave out of the team.
Having two players with flyhalf experience in the key 10/12 decision-making axis could further unlock the Bok attacking game, and also improve their ability to exit their territory when under pressure. Andre Esterhuizen, who played 12 against Italy, is not an option as he is one of a clutch of players who have been released back to their English and French clubs due to this match falling outside of the international window.
There could be a concern that playing De Allende at 13 ahead of Jesse Kriel might compromise the Bok defence. Kriel is an excellent defensive player, in his position he is also the defensive organiser so will be more used to that role than De Allende will.
But if De Allende is injured anyway, and thus unavailable, a Willemse/Kriel midfield combination would appear the likely way to go, and would further open the way for Libbok to get his first feel of the No 10 jersey as opposed to the No 23.
MAPIMPI SHOULD RETURN
The rest of the backline should select itself, with Makazole Mapimpi a likely direct replacement for Cheslin Koble, who is French-based and anyway left the field injured in Genoa and would have been unlikely to play in London even had he been available. Canan Moodie has returned to the squad after recovering from injury but may be there for a bench role.
There are also a few selection decisions to be made at forward. With Maro Itoje expected to line up on the flank as England coach Eddie Jones looks for extra lineout options, there is probably little option for Nienaber but to keep Franco Mostert at blindside flank in the absence of the suspended Pieter-Steph du Toit.
A year ago, you might not have imagined the Boks being comfortable playing Marvin Orie at No 5 lock against England, but the United Rugby Championship-winning Stormers player has grown immeasurably as an international player and he has played alongside his former schoolmate Eben Etzebeth, who will return to the starting team for the England clash, a few times at this level before.
SCARCITY OF GENUINE BLINDSIDE OPTIONS
But ideally, Nienaber might have wanted Mostert back at lock in the absence of the injured Lood de Jager, who could be sorely missed in this game. Which highlights a potential area of weakness, or relative weakness given South Africa’s strength in the position in the past - blindside flank.
Mostert is ostensibly a lock converted temporarily to flank, and the legendary Schalk Burger, who knows about these things, did make a good point in the Supersport studio in the buildup to the Italy match when he said there is something a bit incongruous about a lock playing on the flank.
Some might argue that was what Du Toit was and he went on to be World Rugby Player of the Year as a flank in 2019, but he did play much of his early rugby for the Sharks in the No 7 jersey.
Who is the next No 7 in the Bok team? Kwagga Smith has played there, but can’t be considered there in a game where a lineout option in that position has become a necessity, and anyway, he is needed at No 8 now that Jasper Wiese, who profited on this tour from the decision to rest Duane Vermeulen, has returned to his club Leicester Tigers.
Evan Roos told us last week he could play No 7, but that would be an unlikely selection for a game of this magnitude. Dan du Preez would have been another option had he not returned to his club, so it looks like even if Nienaber wanted to move Mostert back to lock for this game, his hands are tied.
With Vincent Koch joining up with his new French club, and ditto Trevor Nyakane, South Africa A captain Thomas du Toit will be on the Bok bench for this game, and Jaden Hendrikse will return for Cobus Reinach.