A statistical deep-dive into the rugby's biggest rivalry

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”

The often-quoted saying from Mark Twain may underline the absurdity of trying to fit square pegs into round holes using statistics, but it does give us an interesting insight into Saturday’s opening Castle Lager Rugby Championship match between the Springboks and All Blacks from a different point of view.

Thanks to our friends at Opta, Saturday’s test match can be dissected from a number of angles, and not always those you would expect.

Take a few of these facts for instance, all good caveats for that conversation to impress a few mates ahead of the game.

But while they are interesting, in reality we know they mean little when two teams get out onto the field and the heat of battle is all that matters.

We know, for instance, that the Springboks last beat the All Blacks in South Africa in 2014, a fact skewed by the pandemic and four years since the black jersey was last in South Africa, but the stats favour them in more ways than one.

Take a look:

GAME DAY FACTS THAT MATTER

- New Zealand have won nine of their last 12 men’s tests against South Africa (D1, L2); the All Blacks have won each of their last four matches on South African soil, however their last two such victories have come by margins of just two points or fewer.

- South Africa have won six of their last seven men’s tests on home soil (L1), conceding 20+ points in a match just once during that period; three of their last five wins at home have come after leading at halftime on the day.

- South Africa have won five of their last seven men’s tests (L2) after losing three in a row previously; however, the Springboks have scored 4+ tries in a game just once during that period and led their opposition at halftime on just one occasion.

- New Zealand have won just one of their last five men’s tests (L4) and suffered defeat in each of their last two; the All Blacks have not lost three tests in a row since a run of five straight defeats between July and August 1998, a sequence which included two defeats against South Africa.

- The All Blacks have lost each of their last two tests played outside of New Zealand after winning eight of their previous nine (L1); they have not lost three away matches in a row since a run of three straight defeats between July and August 1998, a run which included a defeat to South Africa (24-23).

- No Tier One nation averaged a greater share of possession during this year’s July test matches than South Africa (57%), while the Springboks also ranked third for percentage of time spent in opposition territory (54.5%).

- South Africa made the fewest knock-ons of any Tier One nation during this year’s July test matches (4), while no Tier One side made more knock-ons than New Zealand (13).

- New Zealand and South Africa ranked joint-first for line breaks amongst Tier One nations during this year’s July test matches (12); with the two sides also ranking second (1,277m) and fifth (1,158m) respectively for carry metres gained.

- South Africa’s Damian Willemse ranked in the top five for both metres gained (190m - 3rd) and line breaks (3, =4th) among players from Tier One nations during this year’s July test matches, while Springboks teammate Lood de Jager ranked second for own lineout takes (15).

- New Zealand’s Ardie Savea was the only player to score three tries against Tier One nations during this year’s July men’s tests, while teammate Sam Cane made more tackles than any other Rugby Championship player during this period (41) and the third most of any Tier One player overall.

And while that may be nice, there isn’t really much physically to pick between the sides. In age, the Boks are a tad older, but the All Black forwards are slightly taller and heavier. What will matter more in the battle on the field will be physicality, heart and the will to run through a brick wall at the opposition.

But taking stats since last year’s Rugby Championship, it is clear that New Zealand, while they may be under pressure now, shade all the other sides in the competition in terms of a number of stats over the test season.

ATTACK FAVOURS ALL BLACKS

New Zealand, for instance, score an average of 36.3 points to the Springboks 25.3 in a game - another fact skewed by big wins over teams like Tonga. But it does hold true that the All Blacks are normally worth around 30 points a game and when the Boks have beaten them in the Rugby Championship, they’ve scored more than 30 on each occasion. The All Blacks also average 4.7 tries to the 2 per game that the Springboks have.

Again this is no surprise, especially given the Boks attention to setpieces and the constant debate about their attack. There are stark differences here as well, with the All Blacks averaging 7.7 linebreaks in a game, as compared to the 1.7 of the Springbosk. They shade carries, metres made and defenders beaten as well, not a surprise given some of their victories over the past two years.

And yet the All Blacks are the team under pressure. These stats meant nothing to an Ireland side that was accurate and disciplined and the result has been that New Zealand’s fans - normally spoilt with all the success - are clutching at their pearls as the series was lost against Ireland.

TIGHT CONTESTS FAVOUR BOKS

Where the Boks do shade the All Blacks are in the tight contests - their line-out success, scrum success and turnovers won are better than their opponents this weekend, and as the basis of the game and a potential worry for the All Blacks, this could be a leveller.

Traditionally in games between the two sides it has been very apparent that the Bok defence has countered the All Blacks well - with the odd blowout game exception. Under the current coaching management this is even more so. The Boks are equipped to physically go head to head with the All Blacks and while they may not be seen to have the attacking game their opponents have, confidence is something they won’t lack in this encounter.

INTRUIGING ENCOUNTER

This all leaves us with an intriguing encounter and a difficult one to predict. Will the Boks be too strong and have the All Blacks missed the physicality of South African teams in Super Rugby? Has the Irish test dented their pride so much that a backlash can be expected? Or is it that they are indeed vulnerable and these are coach Ian Foster’s last days?

The only way to answer these will be on the field on Saturday. And then the stats will mean little because the battle will have begun.