The England management would have felt like they were watching a movie they’d seen before. Their team squandering what was an eight point lead deep into the third quarter and then losing because their front row depth didn’t hold up.
This time it was against New Zealand at their Twickenham headquarters, a year ago it was against South Africa in a World Cup semifinal in Paris. The home team did better than expected against the All Black scrum in the first part of the game, but once the replacement front row came on the momentum of the scrum battle shifted, and so did the momentum of the game.
It was also thus in France 12 and a bit months ago. But in both instances, if you were English, you couldn’t just blame the scrumming. They were also both games that could have been won by England had they taken their earlier opportunities to put their opponents away.
The weather conditions meant that England played a near perfect game against the Boks, but there was some criticism afterwards of their failure to do more with the ball. It was often thus when one of Owen Farrell or George Ford lined up at flyhalf, or combined together in the 10/12 axis.
ENGLAND HAVE GROWN THEIR ATTACK
The Boks will be aware ahead of their 16 November showdown in London that England have grown their attacking game. Part of that is because of a change of mindset and the evolution that happens once a coach has become more settled, which Steve Borthwick has. But it also has a lot to do with who is wearing the 10.
And here Borthwick botched it badly against the Kiwis. Marcus Smith had recovered from an iffy first half to be bossing the game for England in the second half. And was then taken off and replaced by Ford. Everyone knew why Ford came on - England wanted game management. They were leading by eight points. They were saying “We are going to defend our lead.”
They didn’t and unfortunately for them the identity of the man performing the pivot duties fell short in the clutch moments. Ford missed a crucial tackle that led to the All Blacks’ try that set up Damian McKenzie’s brilliant match winning conversion. He hit the post with a penalty attempt that would have regained his team the lead and in all likelihood won his team the game. There were just two minutes left. And then, with some poor buildup work also playing a role, he missed what would have been the winning drop goal off the last play of the game.
KIWI’S NEEDED MCKENZIE FOR THAT WINNING KICK
So let’s cue McKenzie again. Beauden Barrett started the game and played a big role in the All Blacks being in charge in the first half. There are some who say he’s getting long in the tooth, but for me Barrett looks as dangerous when it comes to creating opportunities and space to attack into that he ever has. He also nailed his kicks.
But that clutch kick at the end probably required McKenzie, who has been more of a frontline kicker from the tee recently than Barrett has. Which again takes us back to just over a year ago, to both the Bok quarterfinal and semifinal. The Boks would arguably not have been in the game at halftime had Manie Libbok not worn the 10 in the first half and played a role in the three tries that matched France’s three.
They would also probably have lost the game had Handre Pollard not been on the field to kick the points that won it when it was tense. And ditto a week later. Libbok didn’t keep the Boks in the game that time.
Given that it was a wet weather game, he probably shouldn’t have played at all. It was a game that required a different approach than the one they applied and ultimately it was thanks to Ox Nche’s impact as a substitute in the scrums and Pollard’s steely nerve that the Boks advanced to the final against New Zealand.
MISSED KICKS COST BOKS ON LAST NOVEMBER TOUR
Of course, the flyhalf doesn’t have to be the designated place-kicker. Scrumhalf Jayden Hendrikse filled that role at Mbombela, thus releasing Libbok to play a blinder that must put him in the frame to start against Scotland on Sunday. But Hendrikse’s success rate at goal was middling rather than perfect. If the games are closer, which they might well be on this tour, that will matter more than it did then.
The Boks know from experience that kicking from the tee can cost them. The recent loss to Argentina wasn’t the first time, and on their last November tour of the north, in 2022, they arguably would have won their big game against Ireland in Dublin had they started with a designated frontline goalkicker.
Pollard was injured for that tour and Damian Willemse wore the No 10 in his stead. Willemse used to be a frontline kicker for Western Province and the Stormers. But not any more (although he was really good in that role recently against Munster), and crucial kicks were missed at the AVIVA Stadium by both him and the players in the support role. There was another thing about that game though that shouldn’t be forgotten - it was probably the last one that was played before the Bok coaches flicked the switch away from the stringent conservatism that had been the way up to that point to a more adventurous approach.
The Boks running back kick receipt surprised the French in Marseille the following week and although the Boks didn’t win, they did well enough when down to 14 men from the early minutes due to the red carding of Pieter-Steph du Toit to encourage a continuation of that policy. Libbok, who was on for just a few minutes in that game, duly got his first proper opportunity the following week as a second half replacement against Italy and cooked. Willemse though retained the No 10 jersey for the final game against England, produced a match winning performance as the Bok counter-attacking game suddenly became as pivotal to their success as their physical defence, mauling and scrumming.
IT’S NOT ABOUT ONE FLYHALF BUT THE MIX
The Boks have of course evolved a lot further since then under the influence of new attack coach Tony Brown. Now they don’t just attack from transition play and on the counter, they also set up ball in hand attacking ploys from first phase.
The big win over Argentina in Nelspruit was a salient lesson in what the Boks can do with their new approach, and the ambidextrous Libbok’s brilliant passing game and unpredictability had a lot to do with the drift to near perfection.
Libbok can be inconsistent though, and occasionally he appears to go rogue, as he may have done in a pretty abject performance for the Stormers against the Glasgow Warriors more recently. Many of those Warriors players will be fronting the Boks for Scotland at Murrayfield on Sunday and they may be pleased to see Libbok starting against them. If indeed he does.
He should start if the last game is to be a selection yardstick, but the identity of the people wearing the No 10 or 22/23 (depending if there’s a bomb squad bench) may matter less for South Africa than it does for England. That’s because Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has a better track record when it comes to timing his replacements than the England coach does.
Borthwick should have read the game better and kept Smith on this past weekend. Erasmus read the games right in last year’s quarterfinal and semifinal when he brought Pollard on. Pollard is a better allround player, and more rounded, than Ford is so he’s also a better safety net.
But Scotland showed that you can get a lot out of a running game when it is dry at Murrayfield when they put Fiji to the sword last weekend. And they didn’t even have the influential Finn Russell, who brings a similar magic to the game that Libbok does, wearing their 10. The Bath based player was watching from the stands as he wasn’t available due to the game being played outside of the international window.
Pitting Russell and Libbok against each other will create great spectacle, and let’s not forget how good Libbok was and how instrumental in the win scored over those opponents in the World Cup opener in Marseille.
One thing is for sure though - the right mix, meaning between who starts and who finishes and how long they play, will go a long way towards determining how the next few games involving the Boks may go. Not just for themselves, but for their opponents too. England did just score one intercept try against the All Blacks, but they looked more cutting as an attacking threat when Smith was on the field. Russell is the wizard for Scotland and, because he didn’t play last week, also the unknown factor.