Wales’ big win over Australia on Sunday secured them their quarterfinal spot at Rugby World Cup 2023 and thus far they are the only nation to be completely assured of being in action on the first play-off weekend in mid-October. None of the other teams in Pool C can catch them.
The inquest into the poor Wallaby performance thus far at the World Cup continues but they do retain a slender chance of getting through to the knock-outs, though the smart money will surely now be on Fiji joining the Welsh, who are not in action this week but will be red hot favourites to finish top in Pool C by beating Georgia the following week.
The Wallabies should beat Portugal in Saint-Etienne on Sunday but it will be meaningless if Fiji do what they are expected to by winning against Georgia in Bordeaux the previous day. Apart from having a superior points difference to the Wallabies, Fiji still have a game to come against Portugal after this while the Aussies will have completed their Pool games and in all likelihood their campaign.
SHOCKING FALL
It has certainly been a shocking fall for Australia, who were World Cup champions twice in the 1990s and have been on a steady decline over the past few years. Their coach Eddie Jones took a young team to this tournament in what was obviously an attempt to build towards the event that Australia will host in 2027 but frankly it is very hard to see Jones surviving until the end of this tournament let alone to the next one in four years time.
Australia are not the only top nation facing potential jeopardy this weekend, but in the New Zealand and South African cases it would require a stunning upset for either of them to be facing an early exit. The All Blacks are facing the same situation that the Boks did in Japan in 2019 by having to beat Italy, and while they are wary of their opponents ahead of Friday night’s game in Lyon, they should get a similar result to the one the Boks managed in Shizouka four years ago.
The Boks have been pushed by Tonga before at a World Cup, referencing the game in Lille in 2007, when they had to dig deep to win, but that shouldn’t be the case this time around. In that match 16 years ago the South Africans were coming off the high of a big win against England but this time they are coming off a disappointing defeat to Ireland and know they must win in order to be safe in their quest to get out of the group phase.
BOKS SHOULD BE SAFE
Their vastly superior points differential on Scotland plus the fact Scotland have to play Ireland in their last game should make the Boks safe if they get five log points in Marseille on Sunday. At the same time though, a big win for Scotland against Romania on Saturday will put some pressure on them.
The round starts on Wednesday night when Namibia, with coach Allister Coetzee having made seven changes to the side that played France last week, come up against Uruguay in Lyon. This was always going to be the big game of the tournament for these teams as they didn’t stand much chance against the other three sides - France, New Zealand and Italy - so it should be a highly competitive game and a good one to watch.
Fixtures and predictions in fourth week of RWC 2023
Uruguay v Namibia (Lyon, Wednesday 17.45)
Allister Coetzee has made seven changes to his starting team for this clash against the fellow minnows in the group. Neither team has so much as picked up a bonus point so far so they start this battle to avoid the wooden spoon in Pool C both on zero, but it is Uruguay who have thus far been the more competitive of the two. That is underlined by the fact Namibia have a negative points differential of 208 against just 36 for Uruguay.
Prediction: Uruguay to win by 20
Japan v Samoa (Toulouse, Thursday 21.00)
So far it hasn’t been a repeat of the 2015 and 2019 World Cups for Japan, but they have only played twice and do retain a chance of joining England, who are almost certain to qualify for the play-offs as they stand on 14 points after three games, in the play-offs. The smart money though would be on the second spot in Pool D being taken by Argentina. This game could be a closely fought one.
Prediction: Samoa to win by 7
New Zealand v Italy (Lyon, Friday 21.00)
It is understandable why New Zealand are nervous about this fixture - they are currently in third place, five points behind the Azurri, after the same number of games. So a sensational upset from the Italians will blow the All Blacks out of the tournament. It won’t happen, but the group situation does make this game interesting.
Predicton: New Zealand to win by 20
Argentina v Chile (Nantes, Saturday 15.00)
The Los Pumas recovered from the disappointment of their unexpectedly one-sided defeat to England in the first round by registering their first win of this RWC against Samoa last weekend. Chile by contrast continued a losing trend and after showing some promise in their opening game, they have struggled to make any impression in their first appearance at a World Cup, with a 71-0 defeat to England indicating a regression in performance. They should be well beaten by their fellow South Americans in what will be their last match.
Prediction: Argentina by at least 50
Fiji v Georgia (Bordeaux, Saturday 17.45)
Fiji have an appearance in the play-offs well within their grasp and while the Georgians can be nuggety and tenacious opponents it is hard to see the islanders dropping the ball now. It won’t be a landslide win but they will win fairly comfortably.
Prediction: Fiji by 18
Scotland v Romania (Lille, Saturday 21.00)
Scotland are in the same position going into this game as the South Africans were when they played Romania two weeks ago - they need to get the points that will make enough of a difference to their points differential to keep pressure on the team they are battling with in their quest to get out of Pool B. And that happens to be the Boks, who should be expected to win big the next day against Tonga. The bookies are expecting the Scots to win by at least 50 and they are right.
Prediction: Scotland to win by 55 to 60
Australia v Portugal (Saint-Etienne, Sunday 17.45)
My how the mighty have fallen. The Wallabies should end the Pool phase with the win they need against Portugal to retain a slim chance of qualification for the knock-outs, but by the time Sunday arrives they should be pretty much certain that this will be their last game at France 2023. It has been a big fall for the nation that is third on the list of World Cup winners with two victories (1991 and 1999) against New Zealand and South Africa’s three apiece. The Wallabies will say goodbye with a flourish, but it WILL be goodbye.
Prediction: Wallabies to win by 40
South Africa v Tonga (Marseille, Sunday 21.00)
Last week’s defeat to Ireland has placed the Boks under pressure as they return to Marseille for their final Pool B game, but it is not a situation they haven’t faced before. They were in precisely the same predicament, meaning they needed to win to get beyond the group phase, when they played Italy in the 2019 World Cup. They responded superbly to the pressure then and they will again.
Prediction: South Africa to win by 50