He might just be the most irritating man in rugby but it is Johnny Sexton who looms large as the biggest threat to the Springboks as they face their moment of truth against the world’s No1 team at Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday.
“Moment of truth” is a tired old cliche in sportswriting that is often used when it doesn’t apply, but this time it is apt. And it isn’t just because the Boks haven’t played Ireland in five years, with the 38-3 humiliation in Allister Coetzee’s last tour in charge being the last taste these two teams have had of each other.
Nope, what is more pertinent is that the global shift in the balance of rugby power has changed the landscape when it comes to knowing just where the Boks are on the pathway to next year’s Rugby World Cup in France.
KIWIS NO LONGER THE MEASURING STICK
Whereas in most years since rugby became professional in 1995, the All Blacks have been the measuring stick for other teams, and that meant the defining moments of the season came in the Tri-Nations or Rugby Championship for South Africans, that has changed.
We know the Irish beat New Zealand in New Zealand earlier this year and as Eben Etzebeth put it this week, everyone knows how hard that is to do. What we don’t really know right now though is just where the All Blacks are and how good they are. Let’s cast our minds back three years - England became World Cup favourites by smashing the All Blacks in the semi-final, but what happened next?
There’s been a lot of uncertainty since the arrival of Covid and the disruption that brought to the world pecking order. The Kiwis were comprehensively outplayed in the northern hemisphere this time last year and then in the southern season they lost to the Irish twice, South Africa once, Argentina once and they should have lost to Australia in Melbourne. By all accounts they weren’t particularly flush against Japan in Tokyo last week either.
They did win the Rugby Championship for the umpteenth time and on that basis can be seen as the kings of the south, but the South Africans really gifted them the title with their off-colour - and maybe quite literally so if the story of a stomach bug in the camp is true - start to the Joburg game that followed up their mauling of the Kiwis in Nelspruit the previous week.
Ireland and France, who the Boks play next week in an even more difficult game because it is in Marseille, have led world rugby this year. But just as the Boks haven’t been exposed to them, and haven’t played France since 2018, so it works the other way - neither of those two teams have come up against the physicality of the South African team either.
BOK PHYSICALITY CAN DO FUNNY THINGS
The Bok approach can do funny things to teams when they haven’t tasted it for a while, as the All Blacks discovered in the two tests on Australian soil that ended the 2021 Rugby Championship. The All Blacks thought they were flying before those games and thought they were back at the apex of world rugby, but they’d only played against Australia and Argentina subsequent to the World Cup.
A clash with the Boks brought a different perspective and the Bok brains trust of Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus, who have watched the Irish and French usurp their own position at the top of the rankings that they held onto for more than two years after Japan, will be hoping the same will happen in Dublin and Marseille over the next eight days.
A week can be a long time in rugby, and much can change when it comes to perception in that time. The Boks have a lot to gain and also a lot to lose. Right now, it appears they are in a comfortable space, but two defeats could leave everyone wondering if they will beat Italy in Genoa in the third match. That is just the way the South African rugby psyche works.
DUBLIN AND MARSEILLE WILL PROVIDE ACCURATE MEASURE
What we do know for certain is that these two games will be an accurate measure of where the Boks stand, a more accurate measure than we got in the southern hemisphere season. For the All Blacks don’t play Ireland or France on their November tour, meaning that both nations see the clash with the world champions as their biggest games of the autumn international season.
France will doubtless put out their strongest team next week, and the Irish have done the same for the Aviva. Kiwi born winger James Lowe is missing from the Irish side through injury, but otherwise it is as strong as it can be, with two form centres, a hardworking and energetic pack with a dynamic back row and the all-round addition of the physical edge that might have been missing from the Irish approach previously.
They also have a structured attacking game that should be envied by other nations and are the best defensive team in Europe currently. But it is at halfback where the Dublin game will probably be decided, and the South Africans wouldn’t have needed to spend much time figuring out where the biggest threat lies. While they will be going onto the field with a No10 who is starting at this level in that position for just the third time, they are up against the most experienced flyhalf in international rugby in Sexton.
IRISH PIVOT BACK TO HIS BEST
The hero of the 2017 British and Irish Lions series didn’t make it to South Africa for last year’s series but he is now back to his very best and even though he is closer now to 40 than 30, he remains a match-winner almost without peer in the international game. Jake White said it recently - he looks like he is playing better rugby now than he was when he was much younger.
And sometimes it does work like that. It isn’t just wine that matures with age. The Bok flyhalf Damian Willemse is a precocious talent, but he doesn’t have the miles in his legs that Sexton does, and that counts for something.
As former Bok fullback and erstwhile Currie Cup winning coach Dawie Snyman pointed out this week, Willemse also hasn’t developed his left kicking foot so the Boks might be weaker when they are going to one side than they are going to the other. They do have Cheslin Kolbe to dovetail with Willemse in taking up first receiver duties and he has a left foot, as does Willie le Roux who comes on later, but the point is you couldn’t ask for a bigger test for Willemse than to come up against Sexton in a tactical battle.
RASSIE’S KNOWLEDGE POSES INTRIGUING QUESTION
The man alongside Sexton is equally as experienced, with Conor Murray playing his 100th game for this country. He is a man Erasmus and Nienaber know well, and they have both coached him and coached against him (in last year’s Lions series), and that introduces another point that makes this game particularly interesting - there are a lot of people involved in the Dublin clash who know a lot about each other.
One thing for South African fans to cling to is that both Nienaber and Erasmus appeared quietly confident in their press calls this week. Both are clever coaches; both know the Irish game well after coaching Munster. Maybe they have something up their sleeve, maybe this game will be the converse of 2017, when the Boks were out-thought as much as they were outplayed. Don’t bet your house against it.
It makes it hard to make a prediction with any assurance, but the presence of Sexton, who amounts to a lot more as a player than his constant chirping and commentary to the referees, and the fact they are playing at the Aviva must make Ireland slight favourites.
TEAMS:
Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Robert Baloucoune, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Mack Hansen, Johnny Sexton (captain), Conor Murray; Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, Peter O’Mahony, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Tadhg Furlong, Dan Sheehan, Andrew Porter. Replacements: Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Kieran Treadwell, Jack Conan, Jamison Gibson Park, Joey Carbery, Stuart McCloskey.
South Africa: Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Damian Willemse, Jaden Hendrikse, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nche, Vincent Koch, Franco Mostert, Deon Fourie, Kwagga Smith, Faf de Klerk, Willie le Roux
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Kick-off: 19.30
Prediction: Ireland to win by 7