There shouldn’t be any prizes for guessing which teams will be under the most pressure as the inaugural Nations Championship heads into a second round where there will be far more clarity about what is needed than maybe there was on the first weekend.
The All Blacks used their first match under Dave Rennie to telegraph their intention to ensure the game is played away from South Africa’s strengths when the two old foe meet in the Greatest Rivalry Series next month.
In that sense Scotland are the perfect opponents for the world champion Springboks at Loftus on Saturday as they are in many ways New Zealand’s ‘Mini-Me’ - meaning that while they don’t boast the same depth and historically at the same level, their game is very similar to that of the Kiwis.
Fast ball secured by a mobile pack and good backline players out side is the Scottish way and they will be endeavouring to keep the ball away from the South African forward strength in the rarified highveld air.
Whether they will succeed in that ploy at altitude when they’ve just flown in from Argentina is debatable, but they do have the wherewithal to test the Boks and stretch them for periods of the game.
SCOTLAND’S WIN IN CORDOBA HAD CONTEXT
But it is neither the Boks or the Scots who are really under pressure in this round, and Bok coach Rassie Erasmus bought himself the right to experiment when his team won in comprehensive fashion against England in Johannesburg a week ago.
By winning against the Los Pumas in Cordoba, Scotland already have an away win under their belt, one that may not have been entirely expected.
That win last Saturday has placed some pressure on Argentina as, as summed up by Bok coach Erasmus in his team announcement press conference, it is weird to have a log to look at during this stage of the international season but it is nonetheless a reality and the log does serve as a reminder or motivator. The Pumas coach Felipe Contemponi won’t like the fact his team is currently languishing.
But because there was context - the Pumas are never good at this time of year because so many of their players play in Europe and the coach doesn’t therefore have the time that Erasmus has available to him for camps - he isn’t under the kind of pressure faced by England’s Steve Borthwick ahead of his team’s “home” game against Fiji in Liverpool.
BORTHWICK UNDER INTENSE PRESSURE
Borthwick, after going into the Guinness Six Nations so confident earlier this year that he was looking ahead to what he saw as Paris decider at the end of the competition, has now presided over five consecutive defeats.
That usually leads to the exit for an England coach, certainly if they lose a sixth. Fiji lost to Wales last week, but Fiji tend to grow as they play together. They shouldn’t beat England, and breaking the drought shouldn’t really be seen as a huge moment given that while Everton’s home stadium, the Hill Dickinson, is slated as Fiji’s home venue, it really isn’t. It’s a home game for England.
The news from that country is that Borthwick is likely to resist the temptation to make wholesale changes after his team’s 45-21 defeat in Johannesburg, but there are injuries and there is a likely debut in store for the South African born newly qualified English player Bernhard Janse van Rensburg.
There have been a clutch of injury enforced changes to the playing squad, among them the recall of Tom Roebuck following the appendicitis operation that George Furbank underwent last Saturday morning that kept him out of the Ellis Park game later in the day.
FRANCE WILL BE BOASTED BY TOP 14 FINAL PLAYERS
It is Borthwick who is facing the most pressure, but given that his team lost last week, there is also pressure on France coach Fabien Galthie, who will welcome back his Toulouse and Montpellier players into the selection mix. Those players were not in New Zealand for last week’s start to the Rennie era in Christchurch, they went to Australia and waited there instead after contesting the Top 14 final the week before.
The Wallabies, still coached by Joe Schmidt, were unlucky to lose to Ireland last week and will be eager to make a much needed statement against France in Brisbane, where the Australians boast a better record than they do at most other venues. But against a full strength French side reinforced to the point of being near full strength it will be quite a statement.
Still, there was a lot to enthuse about the Wallabies last week, it was just their penchant to lapse defensively at key moments and come short in the critical match winning clutch moment that tripped them up against the Irish, who are away to Japan this week in Newcastle.
FIJI AND JAPAN TREATED AS POOR COUSINS UNDERMINES COMPETITION
Newcastle? It is the one in Australia, New South Wales to be precise, in this instance, with Japan joining Fiji in being viewed as the poorer cousins to everyone else in this competition by World Rugby. The fact that Fiji and Japan have to play away from their home bases undermines a competition that was otherwise well received by pundits and rugby people generally on the opening weekend.
It is not quite as blockbusting a round this week, with the games in Pretoria and Brisbane arguably the best of them, but there will be plenty of interest in whether the All Blacks, who had only trained together six times before they played France, can build further on Rennie’s good start when they host Italy, vanquished by Japan in Week 1, in Wellington. And of course England.
The narrative around England appears to be perennially the same - the coach is under pressure. Except that eight months ago he was anything but after an 11 match winning streak.
Nations Championship second round fixtures
New Zealand v Italy (Sky Stadium, Wellington, 7:10am SA time)
Australia v France (Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 9:40am SA time)
Japan v Ireland (McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle - Australia, 12:10pm SA time)
Fiji v England (Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, 3:10pm SA time)
South Africa v Scotland (Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, 5:10pm SA time)
Argentina v Wales (Estadio Bicentario, San Juan, 9:10pm SA time)