We may have thought that Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus would have changed up his side for the final Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry test match against the All Blacks in Baltimore, but he seems more intent than ever on pressing home the advantage and winning the series 3-1.
Considering the All Blacks have lost three key personnel - captain Ardie Savea, flanker Luke Jacobson (who stood in as captain when Savea left the field last Saturday) and influential midfielder Quinn Tupaea, the Boks may well see an opening, but it could be more than that.
Looking at the decision, which surprised many when he announced just two changes to the starting line-up, Rassie may be looking at several factors in deciding that the old guard - so to speak - need to complete the job against Dave Rennie’s All Blacks.
The only changes - of course - was the injury enforced change of Damian Willemse returning for Cheslin Kolbe (broken jaw) and Morne van den Berg being rewarded for his second half cameo to start in the final test.
The team will head to Australia after this for their one-off September 26 game against the Wallabies, and a number of players - including the likes of Franco Mostert, Handre Pollard, Canan Moodie, Grant Williams and others are expected to return to play there.
Rassie also surprised by naming Manie Libbok on the bench, after an exceptional cameo last Saturday as well and it is weird to think that the banker - Handre Pollard - has not seen any action in the RGR series at all.
FULL METAL JACKET
But by choosing the same side and going full metal jacket - so to speak - into the Baltimore test Erasmus has made it clear that the test series has not ended for him in Johannesburg, even though the bragging rights of winning two of the three games are there.
Clearly Erasmus wants to make this 3-1 and ensure the Bok domination of the All Blacks continues, especially a year out from the World Cup.
And that is fair. The Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series will take shape in four year’s time again and South Africa will travel to New Zealand as holders if they win on Saturday and not have to share the trophy - even though it was designed to be shared in two parts if the series was drawn.
At the beginning of the year Erasmus was asked what the most important part of the international season was, and he made it clear - winning the RGR series trumps everything else this season.
And while there is a lot of validity in saying the series should be decided in the country it is played in, we cannot change the fact it is played in the USA this weekend.
So that takes us back to Erasmus’ selection and why it matters.
ALL BLACK NARRATIVES
For one, you can sense over the tour there has been a lot of irritation with the way Dave Rennie has tried to influence both referees and the narrative around the tour. The Boks have felt they were unfairly targeted - especially in talk about slowing the game down and the scrums.
That backfired on Saturday when the Boks won five straight penalties on the scrum, but seemed not to attack the All Black scrum at the same time. It was a point about scrumming straight and they made it in no uncertain fashion.
Their physicality also came to the fore, and that is partly the reason the attrition rate has been so high from the third test for the All Blacks. Besides losing three players, Rennie’s side travelled battered and bruised from the FNB stadium and will need to front up a week later.
The Boks will know they have a psychological advantage - not only from the scrums, but also from the driving maul that drove fear into the heart of every international coach a year out from the World Cup.
Their old guard are not over the hill, and they continue to deliver when their backs are against the wall.
OLD GUARD DELIVERS
Any hope that this will be the case in the next year was perhaps a bit optimistic, and now Erasmus has backed them to do it once more.
This same team has won not only 82.5 per cent of all games since 2022, but has also won seven of the last 10 games between the two sides. While the All Blacks still dominate the historical record and before Saturday had won 8 out of the last 10 games on the highveld, the Boks claim the vastly superior record in the last 10 outings.
In fact, other than the 2023 loss in Auckland, the only two games the Boks have lost were last year in Auckland, where they allowed the All Blacks a good start, and their comeback fell short, losing 24-17.
That game produced the Wellington result a week later, where the changes made by Erasmus kicked in.
The first test at Ellis Park was the other game lost, but this time Erasmus kept with the same team and backed them to win the next three. They have produced powerful performances in the first two and now Baltimore remains.
And in the process Erasmus knows that his older core group can go four weeks in a row - just as they will need to in the playoffs at the World Cup. The intensity level of this series has been insane, but the Boks have delivered - other than the final 20 minutes of the Ellis Park test - and that will provide Erasmus with a smile.
A WORTHWHILE GAMBLE
To ask them to do it a fourth week in a row may be a push, and a gamble, but the Boks obviously feel they have that advantage now and want to make it count.
We have become so accustomed to the Boks rotating players over the past two seasons that it feels strange to see the same squad - injuries permitting - playing four games in a row. Depth is one thing, but continuity has its own allure, and its own strength.
This Bok side was challenged after the shock of the first test loss and delivered. They now need to put the hammer down and finish the series on a high.
That will be the message in Baltimore, and for South African fans, that couldn’t be a sweeter message to hear.