The Investec Champions Cup heads into the round of 16 over the Easter Weekend with the South African narrative having what has been a familiar theme to it so far this season - it looks like the DHL Stormers are the most likely to advance to the quarterfinals.
The Stormers played themselves into a strong position at the start of the tournament when what could best be described as a mix and match selection secured a morale-boosting win over Bayonne in France.
Wins over French teams on their own territory are never something to scoff at, and Bayonne were considered formidable at home.
Then there was a bit of good fortune when La Rochelle elected to go to Gqeberha under-strength for the Cape team’s next Pool game - and the Stormers duly picked up a full house of five log points to lead their group over the Christmas and New Year break before the resumption of hostilities in January.
When the Stormers did rejoin the battle it proved to be their wake-up call, their first defeat of the season in either of the two competitions they compete in.
The opponents were Harlequins, the Stormers went under-strength because they were set to host Leicester Tigers just six days later, in other words a short turnaround.
But while John Dobson’s men ran out at the Twickenham Stoop more in hope than expectation, they wouldn’t have expected the humiliation they were subject to at the hands of a home team that at that stage was considered to be in the throes of crisis.
What crisis? The Stormers duly played them back into form with a wretched first half and they were never in the game as they ended up conceding more than 60 points.
But with two wins in three, and one of those away, the Stormers still had their bit between their teeth in the competition when they beat the Tigers to make it three out of four.
Given that record, they were unlucky not to secure a home round of 16 game.
BULLS LUCKY TO STILL BE IN IT BUT NOT WITHOUT HOPE
Unlucky would not be the right word to apply to the Bulls. Defeats at home to champions Bordeaux Begles and Bristol Bears left them well behind the eight-ball, but they managed to sneak into the playoffs with just one win.
The pay off was that, as one of the lowest seedings, they get to travel to the top seeded team, Glasgow Warriors, for Saturday’s first playoff game.
It is likely to be their only playoff game given the Warriors’ current form and momentum, but nonetheless the Bulls have won at the Scotstoun before.
So although inclement weather is predicted for match time, and when isn’t that the case in Glasgow, they will go there with some hope.
STORMERS WON’T HAVE FORGOTTEN PHYSICAL PREVIOUS MEETING
Not quite as much as the Stormers should though in the earlier game in Toulon given that the French team has struggled in the Top 14 this season and currently list at 11th on the log.
Toulon won’t want to be involved in a relegation battle, so they are likely to place a higher emphasis on their league performance, and that could just meant hey aren’t quite as fired up for the Stormers game as they might otherwise have been.
At least the Stormers will hope that will be the case as they should have uncomfortable memories of the physicality that Toulon brought to their 23-13 win over the Stormers at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in the only previous meeting between the two teams in December 2024.
It is understood one of the heroes of that Toulon win, former Western Province player and England international David Ribbans, may be missing from the Toulon team this time, and possibly their star scrumhalf Baptiste Cerin too. Cerin tormented the Stormers in last year’s game.
The Stormers and Bulls will both feel they have something to aim at as they bid for the long term goal of being the first SA team to reach a Champions Cup semifinal.
And it will be on for that barrier to be crossed if they both win on Saturday as that will set up a Cape Town quarterfinal between the teams the following weekend.
UNDERSTANDABLE IF SHARKS ARE BETWIXT AND BETWEEN
For the Hollywoodbets Sharks there must be some confusion about what they are chasing as they start out in the secondary EPCR Challenge Cup at the round of 16 stage after dropping from the Champions Cup with a fixture against Connacht in Galway.
They haven’t exactly chosen a second-string team for the game, with the occasion seeing the return of Springbok behemoth Eben Coetzee and Ox Nche is also starting, but regular captain Andre Esterhuizen isn’t there and you do get the impression the Sharks won’t mind having next week off rather than be involved in another overseas knockout game as they approach a testy ending to the URC season.
They need to make up seven points to break into the top eight on the URC log that will give them automatic qualification into next year’s Champions Cup.
Alternatively they can do it by doing what they did in 2024 - win the Challenge Cup. But given that all the knockout games are likely to be overseas, that seems a long shot and going all out for it could compromise their chances of reaching the goal they are chasing in the remainder of the URC season.
SOME INTERESTING TIES
There are some interesting games in the rest of the Champions Cup schedule this weekend, not the least of them being Toulouse, who haven’t been quite as mighty as usual so far this season, hosting Bristol Bears on Saturday evening.
The Bordeaux-Begles game against Leicester Tigers being between two teams who have been kings of Europe before could be interesting too although Bordeaux will be strong favourites.
Bath thumped Saracens in England’s Gallagher Premiership two weeks ago and will be backed to win again in the Champions Cup tie although it should be closer as Maro Itoje and some other England players are expected to reinforce the visitors in their quest to get past Johann van Graan’s men.
SOUTH AFRICAN CHAMPIONS CUP ROUND OF 16 FIXTURES:
Toulon v DHL Stormers (Stade Felix Mayol, Toulon, Saturday 4pm)
Prediction: Stormers to score narrow win by less than 7
Glasgow Warriors v Vodacom Bulls (Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow, Saturday 6:30p,)
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 12.
EPCR CHALLENGE CUP ROUND OF 16
Connacht v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Dexcom Stadium, Galway, Friday 9pm)
THE REST OF THE CHAMPIONS CUP FIXTURES:
Northampton Saints v Castres (Northampton, Friday 9pm)
Bath v Saracens (Bath, Saturday 4pm)
Toulouse v Bristol (Toulouse, Saturday 6:30pm)
Harlequins v Sale Sharks (London, Saturday 9pm)
Bordeaux Begles v Leicester Tigers (Bordeaux, Sunday 4pm)
Leinster v Edinburgh (Dublin, Sunday 6:30pm)