The world’s best scrum and power game against the world’s best attack. The third test of the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series between the Springboks and the All Blacks is set up perfectly, and the way it is couched as a classic clash of styles is this time no over simplification.
Yes, the Boks do have more to their game, and they would not have Tony Brown as their attack coach if they were not still ambitious about their growth. Indeed, the presence of the Kiwi in the Bok management was the main reason that there was expectation at the start of this World Cup cycle that this one would see the South Africans more dominant than the previous one.
So far that expectation has been met. Two successive Rugby Championship titles to add to the second successive annexation of the RWC trophy in 2023 tells a story - finally the Boks are not just reigning supreme at the global events, they are doing it in the in-between years too. Not only that, if you look at this cycle as a whole, which is now three years deep, then the Boks have evolved.
And with the RWC in Australia the overriding long term goal, we can expect the Boks post the RGR series to try and reprise the seamless synching of forwards and backs that made them such an irresistible and imperious force towards the end of the last Rugby Championship season. And into the end of year tour where part of their quest was undermined by red cards in the first half of two games.
DEFENSIVE SHORTFALL IS NOT AN OVERNIGHT FIX
But right now the Boks do have a problem. They are up against a New Zealand team that has rejuvenated and reinvented it’s game under the coaching of Dave Rennie and the clearly expert attack coaching of the Scotsman Mike Blair, and there is no denying that their defence has been caught out with the Kiwis too easily able to find the edge and score tries.
Nine tries to four across the two games so far tells a story, the ease with which the All Blacks are able to finish off their try scoring opportunities tells a story too. The first two tries last week, in the first half, both came from lineout attacks. Yes, there have been missed tackles too, but that will happen when your defence is severely stretched by an attacking system that has a lethal first wave to it and which works in well organised pods.
South Africans will be hoping that in the week since Cape Town there has been a miracle salve to the defensive woes, but the reality is that not even the Wizard of Oz would be able to fix it in a week. It is fixable, and probably will be fixed by the Bok brains trust between now and the World Cup. But in the here and now - we can’t be too sure, it seems unlikely.
BOKS NEED TO STICK TO THE MAIN ROAD
So the best avenue is for the Boks to resist any inclination to try and play the All Blacks at their own game and, as someone who works in rugby put it this week, stick to the main road. In other words, the first and foremost priority is to suffocate the All Black ambitions by tiring them with the driving mauls, by disrupting them with destructive scrumming, by repeating what happened last week by being good in the defensive lineouts.
And then, and this can’t be stressed enough, given the possibility that the All Blacks will still be able to breach the try line even if their possession is more limited this week than it was last week (at the DHL Stadium they dominated second half possession), they need to be clinical with their finishing.
They were clinical last week, much more so than they’d been at Ellis Park, where clearly there were signs of rust that cost the Boks because the very necessary rotation of selection policy with the World Cup in mind had seen the top team play together too infrequently. That’s changed now, with Saturday’s clash at the FNB Stadium being the third game in a row that this Bok team will play together.
FINE TUNING WHAT SHOULD HAVE HAD SA 2-0 UP
It is easy to understand why coach Rassie Erasmus is backing up whereas before the series he hinted at rotation over the first few games. In both tests so far, well for 55 minutes in Joburg and most of the game in Cape Town, the Boks have been physically superior to their opponents, they have made dents with their power game even if at Ellis Park they didn’t finish it off.
Given the impact of their power game, the hosts should really be 2-0 up in this series now and not level at 1-all with Saturday deciding who can win the series and who can’t. With a bit of fine-tuning, that power game is hard to beat, and sticking to the main road rather than taking off-ramps into the suburbs is the best way of denying the visitors the air they need to implement their outstanding attacking plan.
AS ALWAYS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE REFEREE
Much of course depends on the Georgian referee Nika Amashukheli, who it will be hoped will reward scrumming dominance this week. That should be the case, for his nationality is a key - Georgia’s whole rugby identity revolves around the scrum, and the attack on rugby union, which is really what the New Zealand drive to de-power the scrum amounts to, should sit no easier with that nation than it does with this one.
But has the referee ha someone from World Rugby have a word in his ear, which appeared to be the case last week if you look at how differently the Australian Angus Gardner appeared to referee the scrums in the midweek game between the All Blacks and the Lions to how he officiated in Cape Town? That will be telling.
Ultimately, classic match up though it undeniably is, and dazzling though the All Black attacking game is, if the Boks are given back the scrum weapon they were denied last week there should only really be one winner. Yes, they were rewarded for scrum dominance in Johannesburg and still messed it up, but “messed it up” is the operative phrase there. They would have learned from that experience.
If the Boks are again blunted in that phase by the referee, or if by some miracle the All Blacks suddenly front physically, then all bets are off. But the All Black selection for this game, with their slightly lighter pack but stronger bench, sends out an unmistakable message - we are aiming to run the Boks off their feet. On the highveld, given some help and a steady stream of possession, they just might.
TEAMS
South Africa: Cheslin Kolbe, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Ethan Hooker, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Cobus Reinach, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche.
Replacements: Deon Fourie, Gerhard Steenekamp, Thomas du Toit, Lood de Jager, Andre Esterhuizen, Cameron Hanekom, Morne van den Berg, Manie Libbok.
New Zealand: Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Quinn Tupea, Jordie Barrett, Leroy Carter, Ruben Love, Cam Roigard, Ardie Savea (captain), Luke Jacobson, Peter Lakai, Sam Darry, Tupuo Vaa’i, Tyrel Lomax, Asafo Aumua, George Bower.
Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Xavier Numia, Fletcher Newell, Fabian Holland, Wallace Sititi, Kyle Preston, Anton Lienert-Brown, Josh Moorby.
Referee: Nika Amashukheli (Georgia)
Kick-off: 17.10
Prediction: South Africa to win by 10 points