A conversation with Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus two days before the 2019 Rugby World Cup final against England in Tokyo may be apt in summing up what to expect when the two teams clash again, this time in the opening Nations Championship game in Johannesburg on Saturday.
During a lunch with the South African media contingent in Tokyo, Erasmus asked what we thought would happen in the global decider at the Yokohama Stadium. The response was that “If you guys play your best game you will win, but you need to be at your best.” Erasmus agreed and said he was very confident because his men, not particularly good in their semifinal win over Wales whereas England were imperious in theirs over the All Blacks, were ready to peak.
That just about sums up Saturday’s game. If the Boks play as well as they can, they should win with something to spare. England are a good side, and certainly not the sixth best team in the world as the current rankings suggest, but if you are looking for world-class players, most of those are in the home side and not in the opposition's.
NOT MANY, IF ANY, ENGLAND PLAYERS WOULD MAKE COMBINED TEAM
If you were asked to select a team from a combination of the two sides, in other words which England players would you play in the Bok team, which would you go for? It sounds very redolent of Jake White telling the Irish media in Dublin in 2004 that there were no Ireland players that would make his team, and we know what happened in that game, but it is nonetheless true that not many, if any, England players would make the combined team.
And that’s probably stating the obvious given that the two teams are in a different stage of their development. The Boks are growing their depth, and Erasmus has spread his selection net since winning the 2023 World Cup, but the team for Ellis Park features a core of players who featured in the knock-out phases of that tournament.
Damian Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Eben Etzebeth and Ox Nche all featured in the final, Nche as a replacement for Steven Kitshoff. Flyhalf Manie Libbok wore the No 10 in that tournament right up to the semifinal, after which weather conditions called for a horses for courses selection. Scrumhalf Cobus Reinach, a reserve on Saturday, wore the No 9 in the semifinal.
And of course Malcolm Marx, who will make his first start for the Boks since being anointed as the World Rugby Player of the Year (2025), would have been there had it not been for the injury that eventually saw veteran Deon Fourie pressed into a makeshift hooker role for the bulk of that game following the injury to Bongi Mbonambi.
Contrast that with the England that plays in Johannesburg compared with the one that was edged out by the Boks in the 2023 semifinal. Scrumhalf Alex Mitchell, on the bench at Ellis Park, started the semifinal against the Boks but is the only backline survivor from the team that pushed the Boks so close. There are four survivors among the starting forwards - No 8 Ben Earl, flank Tom Curry, lock George Martin and the skipper on Saturday, Jamie George - plus Ollie Chessum, who was a reserve in Paris but starts this time.
That’s a lot of change and the point that England are in their development may be underlined by the fact that the England player who has been most talked about, and arguably the England player closest to being regarded as world class, is a 21-year-old in Henry Pollock, who is playing off the reserve bench but being relied upon for maximum impact.
DEBATE OVER INFLUENCE OF ALTITUDE HAS NO CONCLUSION
All of that points to why South Africa start as clear favourites. So does their home ground advantage and the game being played at altitude, although a debate could be had around that latter point. England have been in Gauteng long enough to be properly acclimatised, and recent games featuring England teams in this country also give the lie to the theory that altitude is a massive factor in the modern era.
The wins scored by Northampton in Pretoria in an Investec Champions Cup game in 2024 and Bristol Bears in the same competition more recently suggest the sign in the Loftus players' tunnel reminding visiting players that altitude does matter is no longer the harbinger of 80 minutes of anguish that it used to be. And the Wallabies would also scoff at the altitude argument given that they scored 38 unanswered points in the last 50 minutes of the last international game to be played at Saturday’s venue.
Yet it may be worth dwelling on that point briefly - it was the Bok tempo that did them in that game. They ran themselves off their own feet, leaving the Australians playing against players with no puff left in them once the game reached the point where altitude should matter. And you might be able to argue that in the initial stages of Johan Ackermann’s reign as coach at the Bulls, his team emphasised tempo and wide rugby too much.
VISITORS HAVE HISTORY OF FRONTING BOK PHYSICALITY AND POWER
For all of that though England do have a chance, and it comes down to what got them so close to changing the narrative of the 2023 World Cup in a game they only lost because of the late scrum impact of Nche and the clutch place-kicking of Handre Pollard. In a nutshell, when they manage to summon the right levels of emotion for a big push, England are the one team that does periodically front the Boks physically and at forward.
Their pack was in charge of that 2023 semifinal for an hour and former Wales and British and Irish Lions captain Sam Warburton, writing a column in The Times, has correctly focused on lock George Martin, who was missing due to injury during England’s mediocre Six Nations campaign, as the man who could lead the England response to the Bok physicality.
Martin is one England player who could come close to making a combined team if he is at his best, and he could be the honey that the rest of the England bees will be drawn to if they are to swarm over the Boks, which they will need to do if they are to have any chance of winning, early in the game.
That emotional drive is the key to England’s chances in a game that should be very different to the one played in the Paris wet. Based on what they did against France the last time they played, meaning scoring seven tries even though they lost, the England approach may be suited to the fast Ellis Park field, just as it suited the Wallabies 11 months ago.
The first objective for the Boks then is to shut down that emotion, blunt it with the force of their driving and the physicality of their suffocating, aggressive defence. Emotional drive can’t be sustained if you are not allowed to breathe.
Teams
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Manie Libbok, Grant Williams, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Ruan Nortje, Eben Etzebeth, Thomas du Toit, Malcolm Marx, Ox Nche. Replacements: Jan-Hendrik Wessels, Gerhard Steenekamp, Zachary Porthen, Marco van Staden, Cameron Hanekom, Cobus Reinach, Andre Esterhuizen, Canan Moodie.
England: George Furbank, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, Tommy Freeman, Seb Atkinson, Cadan Murley, Fin Smith, Jack van Poorvliet, Ben Earl, Tom Curry, Ollie Chessum, George Martin, Alex Coles, Joe Heyes, Jamie George (captain), Ellis Genge. Replacements: Luke Cowan-Dickie, Beno Obano, Asher Opoku-Fordjour, Charlie Ewels, Guy Pepper, Henry Pollock, Alex Mitchell, Marcus Smith.
Referee: James Doleman (New Zealand).
Kick-off: 5.40pm
Prediction: Boks to win by 9