As the excitement rises ahead of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry first test at Ellis Park on Saturday, one thing the Springboks know to be absolutely true if they want success in the test series - they can’t let the All Blacks get off to a fast start.
Teams across the world - and in the tour matches thus far - know all too well that playing catch-up rugby against the All Blacks is a fools game and especially on a hard field at altitude where the field is made for fast, exciting rugby, the Boks need to ensure they don’t let their opposition get going early.
And the stats back this up - in games where the Boks have kept it close in the opening quarter - or the lead wasn’t more than three points - they have gone on to win eight of the 10 contests in the last decade between the two sides.
FAST START KEY FOR ALL BLACKS
On the three occasions that the All Blacks have opened up a 14-0 lead, they have held it to the end and won well, as they have against other teams across the world.
One caveat though against the Boks is that they can fight back - although the games are on a knife edge - in Wellington in 2018 the All Blacks were 12-0 up after 20 minutes but the Boks fought back to win it at the death.
Still, the All Blacks’ tests against other nations as well have been interesting to behold. They have led after 20 minutes against every other team they have played and have won the majority of them as well, highlighting their mantra of a fast start and making teams play catch-up against them.
The only two times the All Blacks have led at the end of 20 minutes against the Boks - both in Auckland in 2023 and 2025 - they have gone on to win the game.
In Wellington last year the Boks were 7-3 up after 20 and won 43-10, while the previous week in Auckland it was 14-0 for the All Blacks and they won 24-17.
Go further back and at Cape Town it was 3-3 after 20 and the Boks won in 2024, while in Johannesburg the Boks were in front 7-0 after 20 and went on to win 31-27.
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The Boks were in front 6-3 in the World Cup final in 2023, winning 12-11 and it was 0-0 at Twickenham before the Boks romped home 35-7 before the World Cup.
KEY AREA AT ELLIS PARK
But it is clear, the All Blacks like a fast start and ideally for them they will want that at Ellis Park. The first test is the obvious place to lay down a marker and nothing will do them better than an early score on the highveld.
By contrast the Boks have a few nightmares from their last Rugby Championship match at Ellis Park, putting on the perfect start to lead Australia 22-0 in the first quarter but then ran themselves off their feet and lost the game as Australia capitalised on turnovers and a tiring Bok team in the second half.
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That lesson has not been lost on the Bok side, as assistant coach Felix Jones confirmed on Tuesday.
“Yeah, it's definitely something we've spoken about, and we learned a lot from that game — in terms of starting so well. I think it was 22 points up at one stage. And then, looking back on it now, we probably just fell into the trap of thinking it was always going to be like that,” Jones said in reference to the Wallabies test.
“A couple of things clicked for us really early, and we just kept pushing it and pushing it, and didn't really get the right balance to the game there. We really felt we've learned a lot since that game.
“ But we're super aware we have to start — New Zealand have always prided themselves on starting really, really fast. We saw that in Auckland last year, scoring really early against us, and us really having to grind our way back into that game, which we did, until the dying minutes where we couldn't quite pull it all the way.
"So we're aware we have to start with a huge amount of intensity, because it's almost a given when you play New Zealand that they start fast.”
TRYING TO REPLICATE INTENSITY AT TRAINING
And while the Boks pride themselves on intense training sessions which replicate test match pressure, Jones admits they know what's coming and it is tough to replicate that in a training session.
“I think both teams, to answer it, are both going to feel really prepared. That's the games that they've had — the franchise games.
"And we've obviously had a preparation game against Argentina for some guys, and we've had some guys that have stayed behind here, and obviously Rassie against the team later in the week,” he explained.
“So I don't think anyone — when New Zealand plays South Africa — any prep really replicates the level of intensity that you're going to experience. But I think both teams would say going into this game that they feel prepared.”
Those first 20 minutes will be brutally physical and both sides will go hammer and tongs. But the scoreline at the end of 20 may not be definitive, but if history has any say, it will be a great indicator of where the game will end.