If the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series, and the way it has played out, has proved one thing more than any other to the Springboks it has been the confirmation of how important it is for them to keep evolving.
New Zealand have evolved, and very quickly, since the world champions scored a record 43-10 win over the All Blacks in a Rugby Championship clash last September. Their all court attacking game, something that at times looks like a combination of touch rugby and sevens, has allowed them to accumulate a total of 13 tries in three matches on this tour. No defence coach could possibly be happy with that statistic.
And neither does it help to point out the reality that the All Black propensity to score tries from the most unlikely situations has also, in the last two tests at least, been off a platform of possession dominance.
The All Blacks have ball to play with, and a lot of it is quick ball, with the tourists set up to have twice as many rucks in a game as they had before while also being adept at avoiding contact.
To win the series, or at least to make sure they can’t lose it, which is what their 29-24 win at the FNB Stadium achieved, the Boks have largely had to go back to the staple platform of what has brought them success in the past - set piece dominance, an aggressive and physical defensive effort and an accurate kicking game.
MANIE BROUGHT A DIFFERENT EDGE TO ATTACK
Well, at least that mainly has been the case. The injection of Manie Libbok into the mix when Cheslin Koble changed the anticipated stick to the main road approach of the Boks, who kicked a lot less in Soweto than they did in the second test in Cape Town. And ran the ball a lot more.
Mention is made of Libbok because he is the flyhalf who gets the best out of the players around him with his brilliant passing game. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu may well become the best flyhalf in the world, is brilliant individually and like Handre Pollard can dominate games tactically in ways that maybe Libbok can’t.
But it does say something that when the Boks have scored their highest-scoring wins over New Zealand - the 35-7 win at Twickenham in 2023 and the 43-10 win in Wellington - Libbok has either played the entire game at flyhalf or most of it.
Just like we had to ask if the Boks would have been in a position to win the 2023 World Cup quarterfinal with Pollard’s late kicks had Libbok not kept them in the contest with his innate attacking awareness during a first half where France were mostly on top, so we might ask similar questions about the greater sharpness evident when the Boks went wide in responding to the first All Black try in Soweto.
A MAN OF MATCH AWARD WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN OUT OF PLACE
He may have blotted his copy book slightly by overplaying right at the end, when in the last five minutes the Boks should have wrapped the ball up in a forward blanket rather than going wide, but had Libbok won the official man of the match award ahead of Ethan Hooker there may not have been too many complaints.
Mention of Hooker cues something else - the Boks do have the personnel to hurt New Zealand as much out wide as the forwards do, and we only have to think back to that aforementioned game in Wellington, when Damian Willemse was selected to play inside centre, to confirm that the South Africans do have more than one way of playing.
That is not to suggest they eschew what they do well and what lays the platform for their attack, meaning the quest for forward dominance, but just that there is a potentially completely different dynamic that can be brought to the attacking game if certain selection tweaks are made - Willemse is back from injury this week, but instead of rushing him back into the No 15 jersey that was worn before he was injured by Cheslin Kolbe, will Erasmus consider him for the No 12, where he can be lethal alongside Libbok?
If Feinberg-Mngomezulu continues at fullback the Boks will start with three of the best attacking backs in world rugby in the same backline.
MIXING UP OF SELECTIONS LIKELY FOR BALTIMORE
It was always assumed Erasmus would mix up his selection in the last game, and being ahead in the series offers him more licence to do so, while the hard yards made by the players who have fronted on three successive Saturdays must surely now have Erasmus considering resting them. Fronting for four successive weekends against the All Blacks is asking a lot.
Willemse didn’t play this last game so he isn’t overplayed, and ditto Kurt-Lee Arendse, who missed the second test. Morne van den Berg was good as a second half replacement at the FNB Stadium and he and Grant Williams, who is a good bench player, could well be the players to share the halfback duties in Baltimore - although we also have yet to see Herschel Jantjies in the series and the reports of how he is tracking in training are always good.
Canan Moodie hasn’t played in the series and yet has hurt the All Blacks in the past as an outside centre, and was there in the big wins at both Twickenham and Wellington (once with Andre Esterhuizen as his midfield partner and once with Willemse), while at forward there are also options available should Erasmus feel the big men need freshening up.
LOOD IS DUE A START
Eben Etzebeth has been excellent in the series and was a standout in the second test but wasn’t quite as influential in the third, and Cobus Wiese warrants against top opposition if Erasmus is to consider him a viable option for the World Cup. Lood de Jager, after starting two games in succession as backup to the excellent Ruan Nortje, is probably due a start too, while it will be interesting to see what Erasmus does in the loose-forwards.
Skipper Siya Kolisi was brilliant in the third test and is gathering momentum, plus hardly needs a rest, but Paul de Villiers, who has arguably been the Boks’ breakout player in this international season, must come into consideration for a place somewhere in the match day squad.
The concussion that has prevented Ben-Jason Dixon from travelling to America is a bit of a curve-ball in the sense that Pieter-Steph du Toit has carried a massive work-load and, freaky player though he is, must be close to having emptied his tank.
Unless Erasmus opts for Franco Mostert, who has almost become a forgotten Bok and we haven’t seen since the non-international against the Barbarians that started this international season in Gqeberha, it is hard to see who Du Toit can be replaced with.
Which of course is a problem if you look at the fact that the team that started at the FNB Stadium had an average age of 30.7 years to New Zealand’s 27. There is no shortage of talent coming through in South Africa, and this might be the time Erasmus will start thinking of that. Winning the RGR trophy is important, but the Boks have in the past shown that rotation doesn’t necessarily equate to compromise.
HOOKER CONUNDRUM
Then, with Malcolm Marx probably shaping to be the Boks’ most irreplaceable player (although they did get by without him at the business end of the 2023 World Cup), there’s the hooker conundrum. Will Erasmus continue with Deon Fourie as the back-up hooker - he initially came on as a flank at the FNB - or give Johan Grobbelaar or Jan-Hendrik Wessels a chance to unleash themselves on an All Black team that may be bruised as much physically now as it will be mentally after succumbing to the Bok power game in the way it did in the third test.
With three frontline players from the third test - skipper Adrie Savea, centre Quinn Tupaea and Luke Jacobson - out injured and unavailable, All Black coach Dave Rennie is going to have to make at least three changes, although it is understood the brutal contest of a few days ago has left several niggles that require inspection between now and Saturday.
With the RGR trophy to win, Baltimore may be the opportunity for the Boks to chase the kind of statement performance that will both underline their superior depth as well as their versatility when it comes to how they go about breaking their opponents down.
We haven’t heard much about ‘Tony-ball’ during this series, this may be the time to give expression to evolution. It makes for an intriguing final week of what has been a pulsating series.
Once again Bok fans don’t have to wait long before finding out what Rassie is going to do - the team announcement is once again set for Monday, although this time it will be in the evening and not the morning because of the time difference between the USA and South Africa.