Ireland will start another Super Saturday of wall-to-wall Nations Championship rugby by trying to do what the Springboks failed to do last year - breach the walls of the All Black fortress at Eden Park, Auckland.
It remains a venue where the All Blacks haven’t tasted defeat since the ‘try that came from the end of the world’ that France scored to win there in 1994. That was just before New Zealand were set to host South Africa in the first post-isolation series between the teams, and this game falls into a similar time space or juncture for the Kiwis.
Their next game after this will be against the DHL Stormers in Cape Town at the start of the Greatest Rivalry Tour and the beginning of the final buildup to the Greatest Rivalry Series, which kicks off at Ellis Park on 22 August.
Yes, it’s all getting very close now, and Rassie Erasmus would not have selected such an experienced team for their third round game against Wales in Durban just to bring calmness to the debutants - he will also be working in two-week blocks from now.
BOKS CAN EXPECT FEISTY OPPOSITION
Two weeks hence, his team are in Argentina for their final warm-up game, a match that will take place a day after the tour opener in Cape Town, and then two weeks after that, it is the start of the series. He will also have an eye on key players and combinations getting their game time up as well as getting into the groove.
The Boks can expect some feisty opposition from a Wales team that has steadily improved since the ignominious 73-0 defeat in Cardiff last November. They will be determined to make a point, but that doesn’t mean they have a realistic chance of winning. The Hollywoodbets Kings Park game should be of the sort that has become typical of South African national teams of late - they may face a competitive showing from their opponents initially, but in the end they should grind them down and win with a comfortable difference in the scores.
That’ll leave the Boks with a full house of log points from their three matches in this initial phase of the Championship, something that only New Zealand and Ireland can match at this stage, as all the other teams have suffered at least one defeat. Which adds importance from a South African viewpoint to the Eden Park fixture, where Dave Rennie’s new way with the All Blacks should be subjected to its severest test yet. The first-round game against France was against an understrength France team.
IRELAND WILL BE ALL BLACKS’ BIGGEST TEST YET
There is a lot of excitement around the All Blacks as they complete their home leg of the Nations Championship, but in truth there are questions about how severely they have been tested. They certainly looked vulnerable to a team that might hit them with a physical, direct approach in the first half against Italy.
Rennie has made four changes and one positional switch as he looks to guide New Zealand’s winning streak at the venue to 53 games, and has signalled his intent for the SA tour by moving lock Tupou Vaa’i to the blindside flank. That will add physicality and heft to the All Black approach, but let’s first see how the selection goes against an Ireland team that is at full strength except for the absence of regular skipper and No 8 Caelan Doris.
Rennie has named a new lock combination in Josh Lord and Patrick Tuipulotu, with Sam Darry dropping out of the matchday 23.
TRAVEL IMBALANCE UNDERMINES THE COMPETITION
There is no indication yet of where England coach Steve Borthwick will go in his team’s game against Argentina, but there is an increasing clamour from the English media for him to start with Henry Pollock, with some experienced commentators even urging him to shake things up a bit by making him captain. Pollock scored a hat-trick of tries last week against Fiji, but Fiji were woeful and also playing their ‘home game’ at the Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool and not anywhere near their home base of Suva. One of the weaknesses of this competition is how the dice is loaded against the smaller nations, with Fiji in Edinburgh for the final game of this away round and having played the previous two in Cardiff and England.
Playing in Liverpool was a massive advantage for England last week, but it could well rebound on them this week as they will face the Pumas on Saturday night having just done way too much travelling. They were in Johannesburg just two weeks ago, then flew back across the equator for the Fiji game, and have now recrossed the equator to be in South America.
HARD TO SEE BORTHWICK SURVIVING ANOTHER DEFEAT
Compounding the challenge for Borthwick is the fact that he was forced to go with pretty much the same team against Fiji that lost 45-21 at Ellis Park. If it was the Boks faced with that travel schedule, it would be a racing certainty that Borthwick’s South African counterpart Rassie Erasmus would have rotated his selections and fielded very different teams.
The win over Fiji would not have been enough to ease the pressure on Borthwick and if he loses to the Pumas, a game that has added needle to it after the big FIFA World Cup game between the two nations in Atlanta, it will surely be the end of him given the clamour for his head that has grown in intensity back home.
However, in Borthwick’s favour is his excellent record against Argentina. In six starts since England’s opening game of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, where they won with 14 men, they have not lost, although in the last meeting at Twickenham last November they were desperately defending a narrow lead at the end of the game.
Nations Championship third round fixtures (all matches Saturday)
New Zealand v Ireland (Auckland, New Zealand, 9.10am)
Japan v France (Tokyo, Japan, 10.40am)
Australia v Italy (Perth, Australia, 12.10pm)
Fiji v Scotland (Edinburgh, Scotland, 3.10pm)
South Africa v Wales (Durban, South Africa, 5.40pm)
Argentina v England Santiago del Estaro, Argentina, 9.10pm)