URC WRAP: Stormers’ loss in Cardiff has set it up for Leinster

When the DHL Stormers were beaten by Cardiff's determination and passion at the start of the final round of the Vodacom URC, it was a result that had negative connotations for all but one of the other teams that retains an interest in winning the competition.

The odd ones out were the champions, Leinster, who were the big profiteers on the final weekend of league play. The rest of the teams still in the competition would not have appreciated the result at Cardiff Arms Park. For when it looked like Leinster might have to travel at the semifinal stage, like they did to get beaten by the Vodacom Bulls at Loftus two seasons ago, the race seemed wide open.

Leinster still seemed the team to beat, but the likelihood of them having to fly to Cape Town not much more than a week after playing in this weekend’s Investec Champions Cup final, lessened their chances quite significantly. Win or lose against Bordeaux-Begles in Bilbao, Leinster will feel an inevitable hangover, be it a positive one or a negative one.

Now they don’t have to travel should they reach the semifinal, which they will be heavily favoured to do as they beat their quarterfinal opponents, the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions, 31-7 with a weakened team in the penultimate league game. Instead they host the last four playoff game at their fortress, the AVIVA Stadium.

They did lose there to Munster in the 2023 semifinal but that game needs to be put in context. In that year, the Champions Cup final was played after the URC semifinal, and Leinster effectively had five weeks of knock-out rugby in a row to contend with. Something had to give, and they paid the price against their fellow Irish arch-rivals for going in with a changed-up team selected around the need to refresh.

They also lost a semifinal in 2022 against the Bulls, but that was played on a Friday night, just six days after they were beaten off the last move of the game in that year’s Champions Cup final against La Rochelle. The Bulls were fresh as they’d had two weeks' rest because of the European final.

LEINSTER CAN RECHARGE TOP PLAYERS IN QF WEEKEND

Leinster would have learned their lessons since then and they were also helped this time by Munster winning against the Lions in the last game of league play. Had they been playing an Irish derby against flying Connacht in their quarterfinal, which would have been the case had it not been for the bonus point the Lions grabbed for losing by seven in Limerick, they could have been vulnerable just a week after the Champions Cup final. The way they are playing right now, Stuart Lancaster’s Connacht can be competitive against any team, and Leinster, knowing they need to be at the top of their game, would probably have had to field their best players.

With all due respect to the Lions, Leinster may not feel the same about a playoff game against them, particularly because they rested players in the game against the Lions two weeks ago and still won quite comfortably in the end. So they can give their top players a chance to recharge in the quarterfinal week and then go full metal in the semifinal.

Yes, that does possibly offer a chance to the Lions. They were very competitive for most of the way in that previous Leinster game and it was only in the final minutes, when the Lions were out on their feet, that the hosts conflated the final score to make it look like a one-sided game. But still, Leinster will feel a lot less fraught playing the Lions than playing Connacht.

That semifinal would most likely have been in Cape Town had the Stormers held onto their second position on the log by beating Cardiff. A Stormers/Leinster semifinal is still on the cards, but having to travel to Dublin is a very different proposition for John Dobson and his charges, and for Leinster, than it would have been had they been hosting at the DHL Stadium.

POSSIBLE OPENING FOR THE BULLS

One team that might see a window of opportunity from the way the cards fell on the final weekend of the league season is the Vodacom Bulls. They weren’t that impressive in beating Benetton at home, and need to improve, but they should have too much for Munster, who were lucky to beat the Lions and appear to be struggling with off-field issues.

The Bulls would then have to travel to Glasgow, where they lost by just four points and for long periods were the better team in a recent Champions Cup round of 16 game. They would fancy their chances of winning there given Glasgow’s poor recent form. Or will they even need to go to Glasgow? The 2024 champions have arguably the toughest game of all the home quarterfinalists, as they host Connacht.

Connacht don’t have the same problems on the 4G pitch at the Scotstoun that a team like, for instance, the Stormers (they are really horrible on 4G surfaces) would as their own home field is 4G. Plus, they are the form team of the moment.

The form team that is outside of Leinster, who have recovered well from their recent shock defeat to Benetton and are starting to build ominous form. They wasted no time in ending any speculation on whether they would lift to second by racing to a big lead in their final game against the Ospreys and then sustaining the pressure for the entire 80 minutes.

It was a good warm-up for Leinster for Saturday’s European final, as well as a loud warning to all the other teams. That they don’t have to travel until a potential final, and then only if their final opponents are Glasgow, puts them in the pound seats to retain the trophy they won for the first time last year.

And if Connacht knock over Glasgow in the first round, if Leinster do play in a home final, it could well again be against the Bulls, with the same result a probability.

The Vodacom URC quarterfinal line-up - seedings in brackets

Friday, 29 May

Glasgow Warriors (1) v Connacht (8) - Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow, 8.45pm

Saturday, 30 May

Vodacom Bulls (4) v Munster (5) - Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, 1pm

DHL Stormers (3) v Cardiff (6) - DHL Stadium, Cape Town, 3.30pm

Leinster (2) v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (7) - AVIVA Stadium, Dublin, 9pm

Final round Vodacom URC results

Cardiff 22 DHL Stormers 16

Edinburgh 5 Connacht 28

Ulster 22 Glasgow Warriors 26

Hollywoodbets Sharks 54 Zebre 19