The Lions’ excellent recovery from their humiliating defeat to the Vodacom Bulls at the end of January has as got them back into the top eight on the Vodacom URC log and they will become hard to dislodge from the playoff and Investec Champions Cup qualification bracket if their next step is a good one.
The Lions will follow up their emphatic winning performance against the Hollywoodbets Sharks at Ellis Park by hosting the other coastal team, the DHL Stormers, on Saturday afternoon.
A win there will put the Lions in a strong position not only just to maintain their top eight position, but also conceivably give them an outside chance of bidding for a top four position by the season’s end.
After Saturday the Lions go into a three week break before they return to play two home games against the Dragons and Edinburgh. Of course the call for greater consistency is a perennial one among Lions supporters and stake-holders, but if they can produce the same level of intensity and commitment that they did against the Sharks, that should be another two wins banked.
NOT BEING INVOLVED IN EPCR MIGHT HELP LIONS
Then comes a difficult home game against current log leaders Glasgow Warriors on 18 April but there is a caveat that needs to be added that may give some perspective on why the Lions may have a chance in that game.
Firstly, they did thrash Glasgow at Ellis Park two seasons ago, the same year the Warriors went on to win the competition, and second the Scottish team will be coming to South Africa straight off what they hope will be two Champions Cup play-off games.
Glasgow host the Vodacom Bulls at the Scotstoun in their round of 16 tie on 3 April and if they win there they will be playing a quarterfinal the week before they head to Johannesburg. While they will have been playing non-stop since the full resumption of the URC after the end of the Guinness Six Nations, the Lions will have been in another break thanks to them not advancing to the knock-out rounds of the EPCR Challenge Cup.
The week following the Warriors visit the Lions host Connacht and if they get up home momentum they could find themselves on a winning run that will make their top eight position secure before their difficult finish in Ireland in May, where they play Munster and Leinster in Limerick and Dublin respectively.
WHY SHARKS AND BULLS WILL BE HOPING FOR STORMERS WIN
The Lions are currently seventh, four points ahead of the Bulls, who do have a game in hand as they prepare for their big home derby against the Sharks, which will kick off immediately after the Lions have played the Stormers.
If the Lions have won, and they have a good chance given it is a 14.30 kick-off in summer on the highveld, the Bulls and Sharks, who are the nearest challengers at the moment to the Lions’ top eight aspirations, will be nine or 10 points adrift of the Lions before their game even starts.
It certainly makes for an intriguing and high stakes double header Gauteng derby Saturday, with the Loftus game now of critical importance to the Sharks’ pretensions of getting themselves back into playoff and Champions Cup contention as well as to recapture the momentum that they gained with the two wins over the Stormers that preceded JP Pietersen’s appointment as permanent coach.
SHARKS LOSS NOT UNEXPECTED BUT PRESSURE IS NOW ON
The loss in Johannesburg should not have been unexpected given the Sharks went under-strength. It was in many ways a reality check for Pietersen in the sense it confirmed that while there appears to have been an adjustment of attitude at the Sharks, the franchise still doesn’t have the depth to beat the Lions away with an under-strength team.
Pietersen confirmed after the Ellis Park game that his big guns such as regular captain Andre Esterhuizen will be back in tow for the Loftus game, but with the Bulls having picked up momentum before their four-week break started at the beginning of February, it is going to be a tough game either way.
And if the Sharks lose again, it will feel very much like the Sharks will have returned to square one, meaning where they were before their two wins over the Stormers.
Critically, if the Lions beat the Stormers they will also have a big gap on the log on the coastal team. The Sharks do have some home games against the Italian teams to come later in the competition, but they play Munster before that (on 21 March) and that game is not a gimme given how closely fought the Kings Park quarterfinal that went to extra time and then a kick-off was last June.
FAILURES AGAINST LIONS COULD COME DOWN TO RESPECT
The Lions were a different team to the one that was overrun by the Bulls three weeks earlier and once they had swung the momentum their way with two quick tries later in the second half there was never much doubt that they would win against a team that they may feel respects the Stormers and Bulls more than they respect them.
Certainly it is interesting that the Sharks’ record against the Bulls and Stormers over the past two seasons reads at this point played seven, won six, with the only defeat being the loss late in the game to the Stormers in Cape Town last January.
Conversely the record against the Lions in the same period is played four, lost four, and the Sharks never appear to carry the same intensity into a Lions game as they do into games against the two South African teams that have been consistent top five finishers in the four seasons of URC rugby.
The break week in the Six Nations means there is a full round of fixtures this week, with one of the plum games being Friday night’s clash between Cardiff and Leinster in Cardiff as the result could have a big impact on the battle for top four places that the Stormers are still involved in despite their two defeats to the Sharks.
WEEKEND VODACOM URC ROUND 11 RESULT
Lions 34 Hollywoodbets Sharks 22
Next weekend’s Vodacom URC fixtures
Cardiff Rugby v Leinster (Cardiff, Friday 9pm)
Edinburgh v Scarlets (Edinburgh, Friday 9:45pm)
Lions v DHL Stormers (Johannesburg, Saturday 2:30pm)
Vodacom Bulls v Hollywoodbets Sharks, Saturday 5pm)
Connacht v Glasgow Warriors (Galway, Saturday 5pm)
Munster v Zebre (Limerick, Saturday 7:30pm)
Dragons v Benetton (Newport, Saturday 7:30pm)
Ospreys v Ulster (Swansea, Saturday 9:45pm)
1. Glasgow 44 after 11; 2. Leinster 40 after 11; 3. DHL Stormers 36 after 10; 4. Ulster 36 after 10; 5. Cardiff 36 after 11; 6. Munster 35 after 11; 7. Lions 29 after 11; 8. Vodacom Bulls 25 after 10; 9. Ospreys 25 after 11; 10. Hollywoodbets Sharks 24 after 11; 11. Benetton 21 after 11; 12. Connacht 21 after 10; 13. Edinburgh 18 after 10; 14. Dragons 18 after 11; 15. Scarlets 15 after 10; 16. Zebre 12 after 11; 17.