The old cliche about the dangers of a wounded Springbok were turned to after the hosts started off their Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry campaign with defeat, but the boot is on the other foot as the two teams approach the series decider in Baltimore on Saturday.
When the Boks won 29-24 in Soweto at the weekend it not only put them into an unassailable lead in the overall series, it also put paid to the All Black ambition to emulate Sean Fitzpatrick’s “incomparables”, who became the first New Zealand team to win a series on South African soil in 1996.
The inevitable backlash has followed in New Zealand, where years of sustained success has bred a level of expectation that, given the equalling out of international rugby and the change of the balance of power towards South Africa’s favour over the past seven years, may be unrealistic. It’s not just a case of the All Blacks no longer having a vintage cycle of players to call on like they did when they dominated from 2010 until after the 2015 World Cup, it is also true that some of the other nations have improved.
A good summation though of the level of New Zealand expectation around their rugby team comes by way of historical fact - John Mitchell was axed as All Black coach in 2003 at a time when he boasted an 86 per cent win per centage. By global standards, Dave Rennie’s predecssor as All Black coach, Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson, didn’t boast a bad record either - 27 games, 20 wins and seven losses, and a success rate of over 74 per cent.
GLOBAL STANDARDS AREN’T THE KIWI STANDARDS
But global standards aren’t the Kiwi rugby standards, and while Rennie has only been in his job for six test matches, and the New Zealand pundits were raving about him after he guided his team to victory in the first RGR test at Ellis Park, already there appears to be some disquiet back in his homeland after two consecutive defeats.
“Why NZ should stick with Rennie” appears to be a headline stating the obvious for those who appreciate how much the All Blacks have changed their game, and progressed with that plan, in a very short time-span. Yet the fact that it appears at all in the New Zealand rugby public’s discourse tells a story. After being the messiah destined to take the All Blacks to their promised land, there are now questions being asked.
And while the RGR series did not end in Soweto, there was a sense that it did when the All Blacks failed to achieve their mission of winning in South Africa. The Baltimore test is just a money game, after all.
However, a win over the Boks on Saturday, which would mean the trophy, which is made of two parts held together by a magnet, gets shared, will be an emphatic response to the feeling of doom that has descended on the All Blacks. Read through Kiwi social media platforms and a clear message appears to come out - a 3-1 defeat in the RGR series will be seen as failure, but a 2-all draw and a share of the trophy will be a pass.
With the Boks having survived the psychological and emotional test of having their rights to their own fortress under threat on two consecutive Saturdays, with the All Blacks playing for the status of being the winners of the SA leg if they won either of the games Cape Town and Soweto, it is reasonable to question which team will want victory the most in the neutral venue game.
BOKS KNOW WHAT DESPERATION CAN DO
The Boks know full well the effects desperation can have, as it has driven themselves often enough. So, as their rampaging and influential No 8 Jasper Wiese has pointed out, the Boks are aware of the burning desire that will drive the All Black quest for a response that will enable them to grab a share of a trophy they had one hand on after they took a 1-0 lead on 22 August.
“I am not going to sugar-coat it, I don’t think there was a lot of chat (on the shared chartered fight that took the two teams from South Africa to the USA after the Soweto game),” said Wiese.
“You can imagine how they felt on that flight. And it would have been the same for us had we been in their position. We know how desperate they are going to be in this last game. That is something we know is coming.”
Indeed, the emphasis has shifted from the wounded Bok to the wounded All Black, and the All Blacks have responded when down against South Africa before - in 2022, the Boks won handsomely in Nelspruit (26-10) to put New Zealand on the cusp of sacking their coach Ian Foster. But the All Blacks reversed the result in Johannesburg just a week later to save their coach.
A WIN FOR KIWIS WILL KEEP WOLVES AWAY FROM THE DOOR
Rennie doesn’t require saving now. He’s already made enough progress to justify an acceptance he is there for the foreseeable future, and maybe there should be more recognition in New Zealand of just how good the Boks have become. But it will be a huge boost for the All Blacks if they ended the series on the positive note they started it with, and there is much truth in that old saying that it is the last game that is remembered the longest.
That would have to be tempered this time by the reality that it felt like the proverbial fat lady did her singing in Soweto, and it has been noticeable that the UK rugby media has ended what had been it’s intense focus on the series since the match that they regarded as the “real decider” at the FNB Stadium. But still, the under the cosh All Blacks have a chance to temper the mood and Wiese is right - they will feel they have a lot to play for in this last game.
It may be one of the reasons that Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has gone full strength for this game rather than change up and rotate selections like many anticipated he would. There is a trophy to chase in the Bok case, and a share of that trophy to chase for the All Blacks, who will earn an easing of the pressure that has built on them if they win.