New Zealand may find their massive plan to have a Trans-Tasman competition not only opened the door to South Africa heading north, but also could see them as the biggest losers in the long run.
There is no doubt that the Northern nations have been flirting with SA Rugby for a move north for years now, but the Sanzaar alliance has always been bound by contracts that have been difficult, if not impossible to walk away from until they end.
SA Rugby’s announcement this past week of a move to Pro14, prompted – in their own words – by “decisions elsewhere” is the clearest evidence that it was New Zealand that broke up the Sanzaar alliance, which has now descended into a verbal battle between the two Tasman neighbours.
While Covid-19 has shaken up rugby worldwide, and stopped the Super Rugby competition dead in its tracks, there were still contractual obligations that needed to be worked through, before NZRU announced that they would be seeking a trans-Tasman competition without South Africa and Argentina a few months back.
This in itself seems to be a massive mistake on the Kiwis front, especially as they gave the alliance partners license to walk away, and misjudged their own influence in the world of rugby, thinking the Aussies, who have for years wanted a more localised competition, would simply fall in line.
What has transpired now is that New Zealand are isolated, looking desperately to find international competition for their Super Rugby franchises and in a running tit-for-tat with the Australian Rugby Union, who has simply not bowed to their demands.
They’ve been called “shady” for rejecting a Pacific team, and have seemingly negotiated with the Western Force behind the back of the ARU. All this hardly makes for good neighbourliness and a solid alliance to go into future rugby dealings.
But all this is in the background. New Zealand, and not South Africa, broke the Super Rugby model by making a premature announcement and opening the door for SA Rugby to walk away. And truth be told, they could well live to regret it in future.
For one, more than a handful of their players have come out and spoken about how they need South Africa, and coaches in the Land of the Long White Cloud privately will tell you how South Africa’s physicality in Super Rugby is key in preparing their teams for international rugby.
And while Aotearoa rugby was great while there was nothing else going on worldwide, and provided some excellent games, how long will it be before the Kiwis get bored with their own product? Add to that a proposed crossover tournament with Australia, how long before their dominance becomes a liability? Who wants to see the Crusaders win year in and out?
Pro14 Rugby has its disadvantages as well for SA Rugby, but in commercial terms it’s a no-brainer. Television markets in the European timezones are where the money is, and there are several advantages to playing in the European competitions.
Part of Super Rugby’s allure for those markets has been seeing New Zealand teams play in European timezones. Rugby is primarily an afternoon sport, drawing the most viewers in those timezones. A cross-Tasman competition won’t have the same viewership from Europe and that could make it a lot less lucrative to invest in.
But more than this, New Zealand has always been South Africa’s ally in Sanzaar negotiations. This may also change, and this doesn’t even mention the anger in Argentina that their Jaguares team will basically stop existing, and all the work done to lift rugby in the country may come to naught.
In essence, New Zealand’s decision could see them isolated in Southern Hemisphere circles, without a top competition and loads of unhappiness from inside their own Sanzaar alliance. While changes were certain because of Covid, their handling of the situation must really be questioned as to how wise their moves are.
When you put this all together, they may well have shot themselves in the foot. The All Blacks will always be strong and New Zealand will continue to have incredible playing talent. The Rugby Championship is likely to survive but income for the game is something New Zealand may well find is in short supply abroad after their own move.
As they say, no man is an island. The All Blacks are not either.