With all teams playing at home just a week after the end of the Guinness Six Nations, this is a weekend where South African teams should expect a full house of wins or it will be a big setback to their chances of an optimum finish in the Vodacom URC.
There are six matches to go, meaning a third of the league phase of the competition, and all the local sides are still in contention for a top eight finish, meaning play-off and Investec Champions Cup qualification. Three of the four have a realistic chance of securing a home quarterfinal by making it into the top four, although it is really only the DHL Stormers who you’d rank as having a good chance of managing that.
The team under the most pressure is the Hollywoodbets Sharks, who promised a renaissance after two good wins against the Stormers but were then set back by not managing to get any points from their two subsequent visits to the highveld. They are six points behind the eighth placed team, and with both the Bulls and the seventh placed Lions having a run of home games to come, they will take some catching.
A win over Munster in Durban in what shapes as perhaps the big game of the four to be played on South African soil in round 13 could make the Irish side vulnerable to being caught by the Lions or Bulls, and will ease the Stormers’ challenge for a top four finish. With it understood that Munster have left several of their big guns at home due to them only finishing their Six Nations commitments a few days ago, the Sharks should expect to win.
That is why we should be expecting a full house of local wins this weekend - straight after the Six Nations, before the international players are assimilated back into the visiting team’s systems ahead of the start of the Champions Cup knock-out rounds in early April, is when they are most vulnerable. The local sides by contrast should be rested and have their top players available.
FASSI INJURY HAS HURT SHARKS
That said, the Sharks team announced by JP Pietersen on Thursday looked slightly weaker than anticipated, with the coach electing to leave out Springbok wing Edwill van der Merwe on a day he gives a debut to a 19-year-old fullback in Luan Gilliomee who also plays scrumhalf and flyhalf, and also to start with his second choice props rather than Ox Nche and Vincent Koch.
A key man missing is Springbok fullback Aphelele Fassi, who is going to be out for three months after undergoing a shoulder operation.
Pietersen wouldn’t be drawn on whether this is a knock-out game for the Sharks but effectively it is - if they lose and the teams in the top eight bracket win this weekend then it may be too tough a road back into contention for the Sharks and they may have to use the Challenge Cup route again in their quest to preserve their Champions Cup status.
The Bulls kick off the weekend by hosting Cardiff and will be looking to peg back a team that ranks as the surprise package in the competition this season, having spent some time in the top four, as well as get back on the horse after their potentially morale denting loss to the Stormers last week. The Bulls, like the Lions, who host Edinburgh, need to win and keep winning to ensure a top eight finish.
The Stormers’ goal is now slightly different thanks to the five points they picked up at Loftus. They are second heading into the weekend, on the same number of points as three other teams but possibly poised to go top of the log if Leinster knock over Glasgow Warriors in the top of the table clash at the Scotstoun on Saturday night.
The Stormers game against the Dragons has been scheduled for Sunday to fit in with a triathlon event that will be using the DHL Stadium in the morning and they then have a six day turnaround before they host Edinburgh. Neither of their opponents are in the top eight so the biggest obstacle to the Stormers after the high of thumping their arch-rivals in the north/south derby is complacency.
Previews and Predictions - Vodacom URC fixtures (round 13)
Vodacom Bulls v Cardiff (Pretoria, Friday 19.00)
Cameron Hanekom returning to the Bulls from the bench after a long layoff is the headline news for the Bulls, while the shift of Cobus Wiese into the starting team as lock partner for Ruan Nortje is arguably something that should have happened last week. The Bulls have lost Sebastian de Klerk for the rest of the season due to a cruel injury blow but Cheswill Jooste is a more than capable replacement. Against a Cardiff team that should be without their Wales international front line players the Bulls should win comfortably, though the bookies’ 19 point winning margin might be tested as it is a night game.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 15
Ulster v Connacht (Belfast, Friday 21.45)
Ulster are on a run and scored a good away win over Edinburgh last week. They and the Stormers are the two teams in the three locked together in second place who you’d fancy to win this week although Connacht are now on the cusp of the top eight (they are level on points with the Bulls) and are growing under the coaching of Stuart Lancaster. Irish derbies tend to be close but Ulster are favourites.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 8
Scarlets v Zebre (Llanelli, Friday 21.45)
This is a battle between the bottom two teams but it should be an entertaining game as they both play crowd pleasing rugby when they get the bit between their teeth.
Prediction: Scarlets to win by 10
Lions v Edinburgh (Johannesburg, Saturday 14.45)
The Lions hadn’t named their team at the time of writing but they have momentum after good wins over the two coastal teams, the Sharks and the Stormers. Plus they experienced the boost of winning some silverware in the form of the South African Shield, their first feel of that trophy. Edinburgh were well beaten at home by Ulster last weekend and the Lions should expect to win with something to spare.
Prediction: Lions to win by 10
Benetton v Ospreys (Treviso, Saturday 17.00)
What is wrong with Benetton? It is reasonable to ask that question given how many Benetton players play for the Italy team that, until their final stumble in Cardiff, were the team in the Six Nations that had shown the greatest improvement. They are currently languishing in 13th place, which is a position you wouldn’t expect them to be in. Ospreys are 10th, but are six points ahead of Benetton and just one point behind the top eight. Both teams have a lot to play for, and the SA teams in contention for a top eight finish will probably be hoping the Ospreys get knocked over as they are a lingering threat. At the same time, Benetton do have the playing group to go on a winning run should they pick up some momentum.
Prediction: Benetton to scrape it at home.
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Munster (Durban, Saturday 17.00)
Ethan Hooker has returned to the midfield after his rest, which is just as well as Jurenzo Julius, who played against the Bulls and Lions, is now on the injured list. The Sharks miss Aphelele Fassi, who is out for three months after undergoing a shoulder operation, and with the man who played in his place at Loftus, Jaco Williams, now also injured, 19-year-old Blitzbok Luan Gilliomee has been given an opportunity. With Eben Etzebeth still a few weeks away from returning from his suspension, the Sharks don’t look as star studded for this crucial game as might have been hoped but Munster will be missing their Ireland internationals as they are likely to target next week’s game against the Bulls on this tour.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 7
Glasgow Warriors v Leinster (Glasgow, Saturday 19.30)
It is really hard to predict what will happen in this game given that both squads feature so many Scotland and Ireland internationals and we don’t know how many of them will be playing in this game. With the Six Nations just completed and the Champions Cup round of 16 looming in a fortnight, you’d expect the top players to be rested. I am giving it to Glasgow because of their home ground advantage and a perception created by Leinster on their tour of South Africa at the start of the competition that they don’t quite boast the depth they used to boast.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 7
DHL Stormers v Dragons (Cape Town, Sunday 15.00)
It is amazing what a difference a week makes, or more precisely, an 80 minute performance can make. This time last week it was doom and gloom among the Cape supporters but the win over the Bulls was so emphatic, and the forwards so dominant, that dreams of the Stormers going deep in the competition have been revived. What will be key for them in this game is to observe that old cricketing analogy of building your innings before trying to hit your sixes, for that was arguably what cost the Stormers in their last home game against the Sharks.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 20
URC LOG POSITIONS: 1. Glasgow Warriors 45 points; 2. DHL Stormers 41; 3. Ulster 41; 4. Leinster 41; 5. Cardiff 40; 6. Munster 39; 7. Lions 33; 8. Vodacom Bulls 30; 9. Connacht 30; 10. Ospreys 29; 11. Hollywoodbets Sharks 24; 12. Edinburgh 23; 13. Benetton 23; 14. Dragons 20; 15. Scarlets 16; 16. Zebre 12.