The Springbok win over the All Blacks last week meant that while the mathematical permutations make it possible for them to still lose it, only a freak series of events will prevent them from adding the Castle Lager Rugby Championship crown to the World Cup trophy they retained last year.
If Argentina don’t get a try scoring bonus point, which would require them to score three tries more than a side that has the best defensive record in the Championship, and the Boks manage a losing bonus point in Santiago on Saturday night it will be enough to turn the following week’s game in Nelspruit into an inauguration ceremony.
Of course, the Boks won’t be looking for a bonus point, they will be going out to win, something they’ve made a strong habit of recently, and the smart money will be on them achieving that objective even though coach Rassie Erasmus has left some top players at home. These days there is not much difference between a Bok first choice or second choice team, they are both strong.
But while the remainder of the Championship might appear like a cake-walk for the Boks given their dominance on the log (they lead the Pumas by eight points with two games to play), and we should have a dead rubber final round, the final fortnight is crucial for the standing of the Championship, for rugby as a sport as well as some of the nations participating.
BLEDISLOE WILL ANSWER SOME QUESTIONS
While South African eyes will focus mainly on the late night game being televised from Argentina on Saturday, the Bledisloe Cup will start earlier in the day in Sydney. New Zealand need to win, and probably quite resoundingly too, if they are to be seen to have recovered and to be considered back on track after their two defeats in South Africa.
The pressure is even greater on their opponents, however, with the Wallabies effectively playing to save next year’s British and Irish Lions series scheduled for Australia from being considered a damp squib even before it has started.
The last gasp penalty that secured the Wallabies an unexpected win in the first game of their tour to Argentina offered some hope for Australia, but that hope was all but extinguished a week later when the Pumas posted 67 points and scored a record win.
Australian rugby is at a particularly low ebb right now, with their current poor form in the Championship following on from last year’s World Cup disaster, where for the first time they failed to get out of the pool phase at the global showpiece event. There was a series win over Wales, but Welsh rugby is in as parlous position as it is in Australia, otherwise it has been mostly a bleak period that hasn’t changed for the better since the arrival of the excellent well travelled Kiwi, Joe Schmidt, as the Wallaby coach.
WALLABIES SOMETIMES RAISE GAME AGAINST KIWIS
Do the Wallabies have a realistic chance against the All Blacks? Given how the Kiwis were so competitive and even dominated parts of their games against the Boks, and how easily the South Africans won the two games in Australia, you’d say it will be no race. However, the Wallabies raise their game for the All Blacks on occasion, such as two years ago when they were only denied by a rather controversial call from the French referee.
Indeed, even last year the Wallabies were leading a Bledisloe Cup game on New Zealand soil until the final minutes, so you never know what might transpire. But the All Blacks will be expected by the New Zealand rugby public to win, and win well.
The Sydney game will be played as an afternoon fixture in Australia so the game will be aired early in the day (07.45) South African time.
Meanwhile the Argentine revival since a World Cup where they were a bit disappointing, particularly in their two games against England, will be put to the test in their two games - one home, one away - against the world champions. As it stands, the Championship looks likely to become a perennial two horse race going forward, meaning it will be between South Africa and New Zealand.
It might be fanciful to think Argentina will win the competition this year, for even if the Boks lose on Saturday they will surely do the job at Mbombela Stadium the following week, but a competitive showing against Siya Kolisi’s team will at least show that they still bring something meaningful to the competition and can challenge the SA/NZ hegemony.
Weekend Castle Lager Rugby Championship games
Australia v New Zealand (Sydney, Saturday 07.45)
Argentina v South Africa (Santiago, Saturday 23.00)