People who also follow the national cricket team in the shortest version of that sport might not agree that Sunday’s final World Cup Rugby pool B clash with Tonga in Marseille is more about detail and certain individual performances for the Springboks than the actual result.
They might remind us that the result being a gimme was the attitude of a lot of South African supporters when the Proteas went into their final group game against the Netherlands in the most recent T20 World Cup in Australia. The Netherlands? They don’t stand a chance. Think again. The cricketers imploded and they were knocked out of a competition they’d been doing quite well in.
But rugby is different from cricket. In cricket, the shorter the format the more chance there is of an upset. That’s why the likes of Scotland have occasionally knocked over bigger cricketing nations in the T20 and even the 50-over format. They wouldn’t have a chance though in a proper five-day test match.
If Sunday’s rugby match was a shortened version of the sport, Tonga might have a chance. They have after all been competitive for 50 minutes to an hour of the games they have played so far at this World Cup. But after that, the fact that while there are name players in their ranks, they are really mostly old codgers, hits home as the islanders end up gasping for air like beached fish and the opposition take control.
Yes, the Boks have old players too, but Deon Fourie and Duane Vermeulen are both freaks. And the Boks are superbly conditioned while the Tongans clearly aren’t. For the Boks to lose on Sunday it would be the biggest shock and calamity for them in the history of South African rugby, even bigger than the loss to Japan in Brighton in 2015.
LAST CHANCE FOR CLARITY AHEAD OF QUARTERS
It won’t happen so despite all the forebodings and potential calamity, the Stade Velodrome clash is really all about the detail for the Boks rather than the result. They don’t play again until the probable quarterfinal clash with France two weeks hence, and there are dilemmas and potential dilemmas that need answering so that the reigning champions can go into the most important fortnight of this four-year World Cup cycle with some certainty.
And there are no prizes for guessing that the performance of Handre Pollard is going to be heavily scrutinised. Rassie Erasmus is right when he warns South Africans to be wary of having too much expectation.
It quickly becomes apparent when you read or listen to the reaction to sports events that there are people in this world who have good memories but most people have either selective memories or no memories at all. Those who do have good memories will recall that Pollard didn’t kick every opportunity he had at the 2019 World Cup. Not even in the final itself, where he was allowed by the South African dominance over England in that game to make up for an early miss.
There was a reason that veteran Morne Steyn was on the field in the final minutes to kick the clutch goal in the 2021 British and Irish Lions series. And it surely wasn’t because the Bok management thought that Pollard’s goalkicking was perfect. More recently, before the injury that put him out of international rugby for a year, he has struggled too. Of course, many have forgotten that, but it’s true.
So what happens if Pollard misses an early kick on Sunday? To coin the words of a song, he is only human after all. And yet it isn’t really Pollard’s goalkicking that should be scrutinised on Sunday, but his willingness to reinvent himself back into the exciting attacking talent he was when he first played international rugby back in 2014. Before he had the creativity coached out of him and he lost his apparent initial love for playing on the gainline.
LIBBOK HAS BEEN GOOD AS A FLYHALF
Manie Libbok has missed kicks and clearly, there is a pressure issue, or perhaps more pertinently the Bok coaches are being errant in not calling for the help of Stormers kicking coach Gareth Wright. Libbok does occasionally go walkabout with his kicking in big games at the United Rugby Championship level, but never as consistently as he does at international level (hence the mention of pressure). Wouldn’t Wright at least partially sort that out?
However, whatever you want to say about Libbok’s kicking, and for that matter, those who are tasked with backing him up, the 26-year-old has been a revelation in the Bok No 10 jersey and has brought something different to the mix. His no-look kick pass that set up a Bok try against Scotland was one of the big moments of the World Cup.
Libbok’s play as a flyhalf should put pressure on Pollard to bring back some of the exuberance of his youth and if he does that, then South Africans will have more reason to rest easily on Sunday night than if he kicks every attempt at posts that he is presented with.
The relevance of this game to what happens a fortnight from now is not just restricted to flyhalf, and a possible cameo as an inside centre alongside Libbok for Pollard is also in the offing. Hopefully. If that works, maybe Pollard can reprise the Morne Steyn role of 2021 by coming on late in the piece. Like Elton Jantjies did, thus shifting Pollard to centre, in some tense games in the 2021 Rugby Championship.
VAN STADEN COULD PARTIALLY OFFSET LOSS OF MARX
Marco van Staden’s introduction as a hooker will be as important as the performance of the flyhalves/centres used in this game. Let’s be frank: there is no complete like-for-like replacement for Malcolm Marx. When I heard Marx was out of the World Cup, the Bok chances of winning it diminished in my mind by 30 per cent. Marx is not just a hooker, he brings so much more to the Bok game than his specialist role.
It wasn’t the goalkicking but at the breakdowns that the Boks lost to Ireland and Marx’s influence there was sorely missed. Perhaps the reintroduction of Duane Vermeulen will make a difference in this game, and it was surprising he was left out the previous week. But a big game from Van Staden in his new position would be huge and at least partially make up for what the Boks lost when Marx was injured.
It is a tall order though and we also have to be aware that this game is much like the one against Romania - there is unlikely to be the same kind of pressure the players will face when or if they get to play a quarterfinal against the hosts in what is likely to be a hostile environment at Stade de France on 15 October.
POINTS DIFFERENTIAL MAKES IT INTERESTING
Of course, it might not turn out like that, and the Boks will be aware of the points differential position after Scotland play a day earlier. They could find themselves taking the field with a target in mind when it comes to winning margin, which will both make it more interesting and introduce extra pressure.
Yet the thought that Scotland will advance to the playoffs at the expense of South Africa is fanciful. Or overly alarmist if you are a Bok supporter. If the Boks get a bonus point on Sunday, which they will, it will leave the Scots needing to win with a bonus point, at the very least, against Ireland, while also denying Ireland a bonus point.
When last did Ireland, who the Boks now know have an amazing defensive system, last concede more than three tries? When did they last lose? Yes, some reckon that Ireland might throw the game to knock out the Boks, but look at the log situation - the losing bonus point picked up by the Boks in Paris means that Ireland losing to Scotland could mean the Irish make a premature exit and not the Boks.
There’s much to think about. There’s much to debate. But the Boks will win and they will do it with plenty to spare. How the pieces fit together with mid-October in mind is what is most important.
TEAMS
South Africa: Willie le Roux, Grant Williams, Canan Moodie, Andre Esterhuizen, Makazole Mapimpi, Handre Pollard, Cobus Reinach, Jasper Wiese, Duane Vermeulen, Siya Kolisi (captain), Marvin Orie, Eben Etzebeth, Vincent Koch, Deon Fourie, Ox Nche. Replacements: Marco van Staden, Steven Kitshoff, Trevor Nyakane, Franco Smith, Kwagga Smith, Jaden Hendrikse, Jesse Kriel, Manie Libbok.
Tonga: Team to be confirmed.
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
Prediction: SA to win 47-12