With perhaps one exception the first round Rugby World Cup results went according to what most pundits would have predicted, with England’s excellent win over Argentina with 14-men being the outlier.
What was also predictable was that cards, or in some instances the lack of cards, would be a talking point. Jesse Kriel made what many considered an early high hit in the Springbok game against Scotland and perhaps unsurprisingly it was what a lot of the British media focused on afterwards.
Of course, there wasn’t much mention of the fact that Scotland flyhalf Finn Russell should have been binned, at the very least, for his shoulder charge in the first half. A penalty was awarded to the South Africans, but the referee and TMO seemed determined to find a way to keep the ace Scottish playmaker on the field.
But contrast both those incidents with the one that did get red in the England game against Argentina, to England flanker Tom Curry, and it becomes easy to understand why so many decry the lack of consistency when it comes to the measures being applied in an attempt to keep the game safe.
Or rather to make it safe, for let’s be honest, it’s never been safe, and those who think it ever will be are inhabitants of Cloud Cuckooland. It’s far more likely that the lack of consistency and the sanitisation of rugby will see the sport lose viewing eyes and wane in popularity than that this most physical of contact sports will ever be safe. It will have to undergo fundamental change for that to be so.
At some stage of this World Cup a game result will be determined by a red card that will be hotly disputed and which would just appear wrong, like the Curry card which wouldn’t even have merited a penalty a few years ago as the clash of heads was clearly accidental, but fortunately the England game wasn’t.
WHY PLAYING WITH 14 MAY HELP ENGLAND
Or maybe it was, because England do appear to play some of their best rugby when their numbers are reduced by cards, like was the case when they lost Owen Farrell in a recent warmup game against Wales. Perhaps England could save themselves a lot of bother by just choosing 14 players for their games going forward.
That is tongue in cheek, of course, but what isn’t tongue in cheek is the suggestion that perhaps England were helped by the sending off by the fact that it forced them to go ultra-conservative. Which of course they love - it’s only really to keep the fans and media happy that England ever even try to be anything but boring.
England’s win also needs to be put in perspective. If there has been a more abysmal performance from Argentina in recent years that was a game I didn’t watch. And as for the refereeing, that became incrementally more abysmal the longer the game lasted, with Argentina being on the wrong side of not just 50/50 calls but some that just beggared belief.
How much impact the England win will on this World Cup beyond giving the UK rugby writers fuel to pump up the team and thus buy themselves platform space at a time where there is also a cricket World Cup looming is a subject for debate, for the opening round confirmed the chasm between the top four and the rest.
The 15 point margin between the second ranked South Africans and the fifth ranked Scots would have been much wider had the Boks converted their dominance into points early in the game. And even though they lost their opener to France, you’d put money on New Zealand to beat Scotland nine times out of 10.
THE TROPHY WILL BE WON BY ONE OF THE TOP FOUR
So even given the fact that the top teams who are all lumped together in one half of the draw are going to have to tear strips off each other to get beyond the quarterfinal stage, it would be folly to bet on any team outside of the top four to even come close to World Cup glory this time around.
Which of the top four will it be? The Boks have goalkicking issues, we haven’t seen Ireland play anyone yet, so right now you’d have to say the French got the most out of the opening weekend. But don’t bet against the All Blacks as they will have players coming back into their system over the next few weeks.
They’re also in a much easier pool than South Africa and effectively have now until the quarterfinal weekend of 14/15 October to prepare for their next tough match, which will be against one of the Boks or Ireland (Scotland won’t beat Ireland).
We also shouldn’t ignore the ominous bit of de javu picked up by Ardie Savea after the World Cup opener - the scoreline was very similar to that between the Kiwis and the Springboks at the last World Cup, only on that occasion it was the All Blacks who won. And the Boks who went on to win the World Cup…
FIRST-ROUND RUGBY WORLD CUP POOL RESULTS
France 27-13 New Zealand
Italy 52-8 Namibia
Ireland 82-8 Romania
Australia 35-15 Georgia
England 27-10 Argentina
Japan 42-12 Chile
South Africa 18-3 Scotland
Wales 32 Fiji 26