There has been a tendency in some recent editions of the Guinness Six Nations for much of the pre-tournament focus to be quickly killed off.
Any talk of Ireland winning the Grand Slam died when they were thrashed by France in Dublin in the first game last year, and the French were just repaying the Irish for what happened to them in Paris near the start of their 2024 campaign.
This year could be no different, and although the northern hemisphere international competition is this time not couched as a battle for supremacy between the two nations who were comfortably ensconced in World Rugby’s top four this time last year, the generally accepted narrative of it being France against England for the title does face some early peril.
Not just in France’s trip to the AVIVA Stadium, where they should start as strong favourites given Ireland’s injuries and apparent decline - but you never know with the French! England coach Steve Borthwick has urged England fans to get to Paris for what he predicts will be a Grand Slam and Championship decider next month. That line won’t be challenged in the opening round, because England are hosting Wales, and everyone knows how far Wales have regressed since they last won the Six Nations in 2021.
Ready for this weekend's #GuinnessM6N action? 🤩#Breitling #SquadOnAMission @Breitling pic.twitter.com/Mo2djqOjxx
— Guinness Men's Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) February 3, 2026
SCOTLAND ARE AN EARLY HURDLE FOR ENGLAND
But it should be subjected to a strong challenge in the Calcutta Cup match in Edinburgh the following week. Scotland aren’t seen as Six Nations contenders, but in recent years they’ve had the wood over England. Particularly on their home ground.
Of course, there’s good reason why England struggle away against a team that the other sides with the hopes of World Cup glory that the English now harbour due to their 10 match unbeaten run tend to beat nine times out of 10. It comes down to how much the Celtic nations hate the English and love rubbing their noses in it.
It shouldn’t help the Welsh beyond maybe a part of their game at Twickenham, but the antipathy to the team from south of the border has tended to lift the Scots and the famous days experienced by rugby lovers in that nation mostly revolve around wins against England.
It has been rightly pointed out that if England really want to be walking the walk when it comes to making a proper challenge for the Rugby World Cup trophy that has resided in South Africa for the last six years, they should expect to beat Scotland.
Because New Zealand always do, and the Springboks rarely do and when they do it is usually in years of crisis, like 2002, when a 21-6 defeat preceded a humiliating 50 point defeat in London a week later to an England team that went on to win the World Cup the following year.
WORLD CUP TALK WILL SHADOW ENGLAND
Ah, mention of that year, 2003, brings out a preoccupation of the English support base and rugby media - it does hurt that they’ve only held up the Webb Ellis Cup once and haven’t done so again in 23 years. And the shadow of next year’s global tournament in Australia will hang heavily on England, in the sense that everything they do will be related to what it does to their chances of emulating the achievement of Martin Johnson’s team.
Former Wales and British and Irish Lions captain Sam Warburton writes a regular column in The Times (UK). Maybe he wants to curry favour with readers he believes would be mostly English, but he has been writing England up for a while. Apart from tipping them to go all the way, he reckons they have the depth to win the World Cup.
SCHEDULING CHANGE WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER
Does England have as much depth as South Africa? Time will tell, but depth is going to be important in this Six Nations because the cards have been changed a bit from previous tournaments by a key change to the scheduling. Instead of having two bye weekends in this year’s Championship, which came previously after week two and then week four, there will be just one this time around. The last weekend of this month, after round three, will be the only break in a five game schedule.
That suggests the attrition rate could have a bigger role to play in determining who wins, and that surely favours France and England. Ireland have a well run system and there is talent lurking in their four provincial teams, but they are already starting on the back foot when it comes to injuries.
For instance, if you look at the two props fronting against France, the names won’t be as instantly recognisable as they usually are, with Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong both missing.
That is an area that the French will be targeting in Thursday night’s opener, as the Springboks exposed the soft underbelly of the Irish when they scrummed them into submission in Dublin in November.
COPYING THE BOKS IS NOW A TREND
The French will no doubt copy the Boks, and they have the personnel to do it. Copying the Boks could be a big trend in this year’s Championship, for while France coach Fabien Galthie has made no secret of his admiration for what Rassie Erasmus has done at the Boks, England’s Bortwick is also aping him with the way he is starting to rotate players and rely on a “Pom Squad” for a late game gear shift.
The English bench played a big role in a successful autumn campaign against the southern nations (which excluded the Boks) and while regular captain Maro Itoje is ostensibly playing off the bench against Wales, with former captain Jamie George retaking the leadership reins, because he missed training sessions during his absence to be at his mother’s funeral in Nigeria, Borthwick will see the value of having an alternative lock start this weekend. It adds to his depth, and is a further cue taken from the Boks.
ENGLAND ARE THE UNKNOWN TO RASSIE - THE REST HAVE BEEN BEATEN
England are due in South Africa to play the first game of the new Nations Cup in Johannesburg in July, and Bok coach Erasmus has said that winning that game is the initial priority. The four match Greatest Rivalry Series will come into focus after that. So it goes without saying that he will be watching England closely.
Why not watch the other teams? Well, he will be, but the Boks have beaten all the other teams in the Six Nations, and on their home grounds, since the last World Cup in 2023.
France will have Antoine Dupont back from injury, so there is some change there, but otherwise Ireland, France, Wales, Scotland and Italy are more of a known factor to the Boks than England, who did lose to SA at Twickenham in November 2024 but that was before they started their impressive winning run and upswing on the performance graph.
THE 2026 SIX NATIONS IN A NUTSHELL
The schedule
This year there will be three weeks of continuous rugby, with the only bye coming on the last weekend in February, before two further rounds are played to the conclusion of the tournament. This is different from previously, when there were two games then a break and another two games before a break. That will mean a bigger test of depth for the competing teams.
Likely winner - France
Fabien Galthie has come up with some interesting selections, such as the omission of Damian Penaud, the flying and try grabbing Bordeaux-Begles wing, and his men also weren’t that flush during the autumn series. There is some pressure mounting on Galthie through a perception that the national team aren’t quite reflecting with their performances the domination the French teams are enjoying in Europe.
The Bok win in Paris in the 2023 World Cup hung over them in 2025, and the most recent win by Siya Kolisi’s men might also have cast a shadow. However, France have the depth, and they are hosting their likely nearest challengers, England, this year. So that makes them favourites.
Likely runner up - England
Second might actually be something Steve Borthwick’s team will end up coveting if they do what they usually do when they travel north of the border to play Scotland. But they are realistic challengers for the Six Nations title as it stands, for as Rassie Erasmus says, something special does appear to be happening with England.
You don’t go on a long winning streak like they have if you don’t have something going for you. Borthwick has successfully developed depth, they have more clarity over their flyhalf since George Ford was entrusted to be the go too man, but have two useful pivots in Fin Smith and Marcus Smith as back up, and for the first time in a long time they have a useful pool of midfield players.
The self belief that comes with a winning habit is also not to be quibbled with. What could trip them up is that confidence being over done and England getting ahead of themselves. Borthwick’s reference to the final game in Paris before the competition has even kicked off is a case in point.
Dark horses - Ireland
They won the Championship the season before last and the year before that they did the Grand Slam, so how can Ireland possibly be seen as dark horses? Well, it’s because they do appear to have dropped behind France and England in most estimations, with France being made strong favourites at the bookies to win by some margin on Thursday night.
The physical mauling they suffered at the hands of South Africa in November will take some getting over. And yet they do have a very sage coach in Andy Farrell and a level of organisation that exceeds that of, for instance, France. They provided the most British and Irish Lions on the recent tour. So they do have a chance of winning the Six Nations, even if another Grand Slam might be fanciful, which is more than one can say about Scotland, Wales and Italy.
Sorry, they have no chance. So they can't be counted as dark horses.
Likely winner of the unofficial secondary competition - Scotland
It is a measure of how much Wales have fallen that the big point of speculation, the extent of their ambition, appears to be limited to their chance of finishing ahead of Scotland or Italy on the final table. They have a new coach in Steve Tandy and their former captain Sam Warburton happened to be at one of his team meetings and afterwards described him as someone he would be prepared to run through walls for.
It is not saying a lot, but the beleaguered Welsh regional teams are also doing better in the URC this season than they did previously. But Scotland have too much firepower, and have largely been written off only because of two losses in the autumn season that could easily have gone the other way - against the All Blacks and Argentina.
Glasgow have been flying in the URC. So they should be the top finisher behind the three man pack that includes France, England and Ireland.
Avoiding the wooden spoon - Wales may just manage it
Wales haven’t won a Six Nations game in a while and they are starting to become perennial wooden-spoonists. As such they are favoured to be there again. However, a look at the URC log tells us something interesting - two Welsh teams in Cardiff and the Ospreys are currently ahead of the top Italian team, Benetton, on the URC log.
Benetton, who provide the bulk of the Italy team, have been inconsistent and disappointing, and while Italy were competitive against the Boks in November (with the Boks down to 14 men) and Wales weren’t, you can’t completely write off the Welsh chances of beating them. The game between the two will be in Cardiff on 14 March. It could be it’s own little mini final.
Of course, Italy have had some success in shocking some bigger nations in recent years. They host Italy in the first round in Rome on Saturday. They could well win that, in which case all bets are off.
THURSDAY RUGBY
The first game is being played on a Thursday because of a clash with the opening of the Winter Olympics at the weekend.
First round fixtures
Thursday, 5 February
Ireland v France (AVIVA Stadium, Dublin, 10:10pm SA time)
Saturday, 7 February
Italy v Scotland (Stadio Olympico, Rome, 4:10pm SA time)
England v Wales (Allianz Stadium - Twickenham, London, 6:40pm SA time)