SIX NATIONS PREVIEW: France set to announce their challenge to the Boks

New Zealand can never be underestimated and are sure to be strongly in the mix, but there’s good reason why many feel France will be the biggest challengers to the Springboks when they go in quest of a three-peat at the 2027 Rugby World Cup.

The French were sent tumbling into a prolonged hangover when the Boks scraped to victory by the narrowest of margins in the quarterfinal of their own World Cup in Paris in October 2023. The world’s most hyped player, Antoine Dupont, might unwittingly have summed up the feelings of an entire nation when he decided to get over it by chasing an Olympic gold medal to make up for the disappointment.

Dupont’s temporary switch of code to Sevens produced the salve he was looking for and perhaps French rugby did too. They took their Olympic quest so seriously that their playoff win over the Blitzboks was way overhyped. The so-called revenge was hardly what they made it out to be when the South Africans, who ended with a creditable bronze medal in Paris, bore no resemblance at all to the team Siya Kolisi led and Jacques Nienaber coached to World Cup glory.

The French disappointment, the sense of anti-climax there must have been if you like, may have impacted on their challenge in last year’s Guinness Six Nations, where they were never really at the races and would have finished significantly down the table had they not scraped a last gasp win against a by then resurgent England in the last game of the tournament.

They finished five points behind Ireland, who won the Six Nations for the second time in a row and frankly never looked like being beaten to the trophy. From an early stage, Ireland were in charge of the competition and an embarrassing 38-17 win over France at none other than one of their most feared home venues, Stade Velodrome in Marseille set them up to sustain their status as kings of Europe.

DUBLIN CLASH IN MARCH LOOMS AS DECIDER

Ireland had won in a similarly convincing style the year before, but at least that was in Dublin, where you’d expect Ireland to win. Ireland host France at the AVIVA Stadium on 8 March, in the fourth week of this edition of the competition, and it looms as a potential decider as well as a measuring stick for how the European balance of power, and by extension the world rugby balance of power, may have changed since this time last year.

One of the reasons the French chances in 2027 are so often spoken of is because of the form, and the style, displayed by their Galactico teams in the Investec Champions Cup. There was much gnashing of teeth in South Africa when Bordeaux Begles put 66 points past the Sharks two weeks ago, but the post-mortems into the Durban team’s performance couldn’t be conducted without acknowledging one point - the French teams are just damn good.

“On a different planet” would certainly have been an apt way to describe both the Bordeaux performance on the last Sunday of the pool phase of the elite European competition, a day when France wing Damian Penaud scored a startling six tries all on his own.

It might have been even more apt though to describe what came after that game. Toulouse were 42-0 ahead against Leicester Tigers at halftime. They eventually hit 80. It was sublime, it was intoxicating, no superlatives did justice to the style, class and tempo of the Toulouse game and the thing was that this wasn’t a game they were playing against a second-string or weakened team.

Leicester were fully loaded for that clash, meaning the likes of Handre Pollard, Julian Montoya and their many England stars, were all playing. And yet they were made to look like rank outsiders and evoked memories of something Jake White said when he was Bok coach and his team lost to England at Twickenham in late 2004 - “It was men against boys”.

🇫🇷 How @FranceRugby line-up for the opening match this weekend 😎#GuinnessM6N pic.twitter.com/dWbdBwcgLn
— Guinness Men's Six Nations (@SixNationsRugby) January 29, 2025

MORE FRENCH STARS DRIVING FRENCH CLUBS

It is easy to point to the French club teams, for it is valid to do so, and argue that they are helped by their money and the world-class players they have lured from outside France to fill some important positions. But, as Bok legend Victor Matfield pointed out in the Supersport studios recently, the reliance on overseas players isn’t what it used to be. Springboks are not propping up the top French clubs like was once the case.

France is profiting more from their own league than ever before and there is more depth of talent than ever before. The question of course is can France coach Fabien Galthie mould that talent into a side that can end Ireland’s two-year stranglehold on Europe at the international level and replicate what has happened at club level, where La Rochelle and Toulouse have been the title winners this decade, and now Bordeaux are challenging too.

QUESTIONS OVER IRELAND’S AGEING SQUAD

There are question marks hanging over Ireland, and most of them are focused on age, while in this particular Six Nations they will also be without the architect of their success in Europe - coach Andy Farrell, who is focusing his attention on assembling a winning squad for the British and Irish Lions tour of Australia later in 2025.

The battle for Lions places will be an interesting different angle to this Six Nations, but the performances of some of the ageing players he is temporarily distancing himself from will surely be very much on his mind as his Lions job will be over soon enough and then he’ll have 2027 to focus on. There is a perception that Ireland have reached their peak, that players in the squad have reached their peak, and that a process of renewal is necessary.

But renewal is easy when you have the talent Rassie Erasmus has available to him across South Africa and courtesy of the expatriates playing in foreign leagues being eligible, it is less easy when you are dealing with Ireland’s much smaller playing pool.

ENGLAND COACH UNDER PRESSURE

Ireland’s quest for a second successive Grand Slam, which would have been a historic moment in the Six Nations era, fell short because of England’s shock win at Twickenham, and that is the team they are opening against this time. It is in Dublin this time, so Ireland will start as favourites, but England were an improved team in the last Six Nations.

They have struggled since then, with only two wins against lowly Japan to show from all the rugby they’ve played since last March - three losses to New Zealand, one to Australia, one to South Africa - precipitating alarm bells across an English rugby media that tends to deal in extremes. Their team are either world champs in waiting, or they are the dregs, there’s never anything in between.

More sober analysis of who they lost to might bring a more measured perspective. Two of the games against the All Blacks were in New Zealand, and they were very tight losses, as was the one at Twickenham. Steve Borthwick’s team had no business losing to Australia at home, but if they expected to beat the Boks then they just suffer from delusions of grandeur.

As it was, they didn’t lose by much to the world champions, and for much of the game, it could have gone either way. That they could have gone either way but didn’t is of course why Borthwick is under so much pressure as he starts this Six Nations campaign, with the general consensus being that his team has to finish at least third or he is gone.

THE MAN EDDIE DIDN’T WANT

Losing close games becomes a habit and points to mistakes repeated and problems with closing it out. Which cues Borthwick’s decision to change captains. Since the Autumn Series the England coach has ditched his captain Jamie George and given the reigns to George’s Saracens teammate, Maro Itoje.

Borthwick’s predecessor as England coach, Eddie Jones, was very public about his belief that Itoje was too individualistic (another word is selfish) to be a captain, but one thing he does have over George is that he is the best player in his position and he does tend to play the entire 80 minutes of most games.

George doesn’t, and he has some serious challengers for his starting place, plus George isn’t the youngest player on the block either. He will be 35 in October. Looking long term, Itoje’s assumption of the captaincy makes eminent sense, but the coming weeks of Six Nations will tell us more about whether the lock’s leadership will lead to the needed revolution.

Talking of evolution rather than revolution, one of the biggest areas of weakness for England in the November internationals was their defence, with the departure of former Springbok assistant coach Felix Jones, an Irishman, having a profound effect. It’s the area that requires most improvement from England, and it is interesting to note that Borthwick has opted for two fetcher-type loose-forwards for Saturday’s opener in Dublin, with Ben Curry coming in to start for only the second time and playing in tandem with his brother, Tom.

Punting England as potential Six Nations winners would be fanciful thinking, but they do look like the team most likely to push the big two, France and Ireland, and can thus be thought of as dark horses.

The 𝟭𝟬𝟬𝗧𝗛-𝗠𝗜𝗡𝗨𝗧𝗘 match 😱

Back in 2017, France went on to beat Wales with a converted try when the clock read 99:55 ⏰

One of the longest games in the history of rugby. They open the #GuinnessM6N on Friday night at 22:15 🍿

📺 Every match is 𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 on SuperSport. pic.twitter.com/F9l3HlLZJh
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) January 29, 2025

SCOTLAND WILL MISS TUIPULOTU

Scotland might feel they deserve that tag more than England do as they tend to beat England, but the loss for the tournament of their captain, the Glasgow Warriors centre Sione Tuipulotu, who injured a pectoral muscle while training with his club in January, will hit them hard. Scotland’s strength is at the back and it is hard to see them rising above their regular station and challenging the top two without Tuipulotu.

Wales haven’t won in ages and as such will be roundly written off, and it is hard to believe now that it wasn’t that long ago, 2021 to be precise, that they last won the Six Nations. Since then it has become increasingly apparent that their big game, the one they might win, is against Italy, but they haven’t done that the last two times they’ve played the Azzurri either.

Wales have though started to see much better form from their regions in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, with both Cardiff and the Scarlets in the top eight, while the Osprey’s thrashed the top Italian team, Benetton, 43-0 last weekend.

Benetton though would have been without star players focusing on the Six Nations and they did produce a statement performance in the Champions Cup when they beat La Rochelle a few weeks ago.

GUINNESS SIX NATIONS SCHEDULE

WEEK 1

France v Wales (Friday, 31 January 22.15)

Scotland v Italy (Saturday, 1 February 16.15)

Ireland v England (Saturday, 1 February 18.45)

WEEK 2

Italy v Wales (Saturday, 8 February 16.45)

England v France (Saturday, 8 February 18.45)

Scotland v Ireland (Sunday, 9 February 17.00)

WEEK 3

Wales v Ireland (Saturday, 22 February 16.15)

England v Scotland (Saturday, 22 February 18.45)