If you Google the word sanguine it will give you the definition as - optimistic or positive, especially in a bad or difficult situation. As in “he is sanguine about prospects for the global economy”.
That does pretty sum up what I mean when I say that it is impossible for me to remain ‘sanguine’ when an aeroplane I am travelling in hits severe turbulence. Actually, it is hard for me to be positive even when it hits light turbulence. On a flight to Australia from Heathrow in 1999 the pilot informed us about an hour and a half out of the one stop in Bangkok that we were going to “hit a bit of weather”. Let’s just say that if that was a bit of weather I never want to “hit a lot of weather”.
Sanguine might sum up the mood of South African rugby, the Springboks and their supporters as we head into the Castle Lager Rugby Championship phase of what has become a never ending season that dates back to the end of Covid lockdown in September 2020. As in there is plenty to be negative about if you really look hard enough - the Boks did lose to Wales after all - but we also be positive despite it.
One obvious negative for the Boks is the lack of rest and the fact they are playing in what should be their off-season, but the positive is that all of the three other nations are struggling and this might just be the best opportunity in a while for the Boks to win a full schedule Championship.
Australia are improving some aspects of their game under Dave Rennie and history suggests that they will be competitive against the Boks on their home soil. At the same time though, this time they are the main course rather than just the entree for the Boks on an Australasian trip, so for once the Wallabies will be taken seriously as opponents. I’d anticipate at least one win from the two games in Adelaide and Sydney.
Argentina have been hurt even more than New Zealand has by the way Super Rugby has been changed to exclude them and South Africa and while they did beat Scotland, they didn’t impress.
And then of course we have the All Blacks. If we to the flying analogy, what New Zealand rugby is going through at the moment is on the same level of a flight I once took across the Tasman Sea from Sydney to Wellington. I think it was on the 1998 Tri-Nations tour when Nick Mallett was the coach. The take off and climb was bumpy and through plenty of cloud.
Once through the cloud cover and into the clear blue yonder there was an audible sigh of relief from the whole plane, only for the captain to give us the bad news that there were wind sheers ahead. Apparently that is the term for really strong winds running parallel to one another but in opposite directions.
Holy smoke. When we hit the first, the whole plane lurched to one side. Then we hit the second and it lurched again - this time in the opposite direction. You know you are not having fun when even the air hostesses seem to have lost all pretensions at sanguinity.
There wasn’t much they could do though, and that is the same place the New Zealand bosses appear to be in. New Zealand rugby is hitting violent upper air turbulence at present, but there has been no ditching of coach and/or captain that many anticipated. It is just too close to the World Cup, and New Zealand don’t normally ditch captains and coaches in mid-season.
A SCAPE GOAT OR TWO WILL BE FOUND
It seems the decision to keep on course through the turbulence and not drop either Ian Foster or Sam Cane blindsided some of the more informed Kiwi media men. There was a lot of “informed” speculation that at least Cane would be made to pay for the series defeat to Ireland, but that didn’t happen. And neither were there many changes to the playing squad that did duty in the lost home series.
But there always does have to be a sacrificial lamb and it appears a scape goat or two will be found before the squad jets out to South Africa. We’re getting that from head coach Foster expressing a reluctance to talk too much about changes that he has promised because of contractual issues.
Former Sharks and Hurricanes head coach John Plumtree seems safe in his role as forwards coach as he joined Foster and Joe Schmidt, who as was flagged six months ago comes in as non-traveling director of operations, in selecting the squad for the trip to South Africa. That leaves attack coach Brad Mooar, who was dropped by Crusaders in 2018, defence coach Scott McLeod and scrum coach Greg Feek in the firing line.
If I was running New Zealand rugby, and those were my three options, I’d drop the defence coach. The forwards have been pretty hopeless recently but I reckon that has a lot to do with South Africa’s absence from Super Rugby. The quality of some aspects of the All Black forward game may get worse before it gets better.
INTERESTING CONTRAST TO SA
It is interesting to note the Kiwi consternation at Foster’s supposed poor record as All Black coach. He’s lost eight of 24 games in charge, giving him a win record of 67 per cent. Most Springbok coaches of the post-isolation era have finished off well short of that mark.
But the All Black support base is more demanding. A good example is John Mitchell. When he was in charge of the New Zealand national team from late 2000 to after the 2003 World Cup, Mitch oversaw 23 victories and one draw in 28 starts. That is a win per centage of close to 90. But after losing to the Wallabies in the 2003 RWC semifinal, he was turned into New Zealand’s public enemy No 1 and all the blame for not winning the Webb Ellis trophy fell on his shoulders.
I wrote his book, Mitch: The Real Story, and in it he talks about the cloud that descended on him for four years, something that he says was lifted the moment the final whistle blew in the 2007 quarterfinal in Cardiff. When France knocked out the All Blacks in that World Cup, Mitchell was replaced in the firing line by Graham Henry, who subsequent to that has become Sir Graham Henry. Henry has so far been the only All Black coach to survive a failure to win the grand prize at a RWC.
GOOD MOVE BUT IT MIGHT MISS THE POINT
Eddie Jones had his moan last week about the state of the game, and World Rugby has reportedly reacted by considering the introduction of a centrally contracted group of referees to oversee international matches.
According to the Telegraph, the plan is a bid to drive consistency in decision-making across high profile tournaments such as the Six Nations, the Rugby Championship, the World Cup as well as one-off test matches and the various test series.
Currently, referees are employed by their respective unions and are then appointed by World Rugby to international matches, based on how they performed in domestic and regional competitions – such as Super Rugby, United Rugby Championship, Top 14 and Premiership.
However, given the recent outcries by various high-profile coaches, and that’s not just Jones but also the under pressure All Black coach Ian Foster, World Rugby is now believed to be seriously considering central contracting for a group of elite officials, which will mean that World Rugby will provide training camps in a drive to create a common approach to issues such as high tackles, the breakdown and the scrum.
The word “Hallelujah” was heard reverberating around the rugby world when that story was published, but does it really solve the problem that Jones spotlighted last week and which Foster has also focused on? When it comes to the drive for safety measures that have precipitated the avalanche of red cards that have become a blight on the modern game, the law is the law.
It wasn’t an interpretation problem on the part of Jaco Peyper when he sent an All Black forward off in the second test of the series against Ireland. He was just applying the law. It was an accidental clash of heads, no more than that, but Peyper’s hands were tied. Wayne Barnes’ hands should also have been tied the following week too when the All Blacks were on the receiving end through the nasty clash that broke Brodie Retallick’s cheekbone. That he only showed a yellow for that saved what was a memorable test match from being marred by the disadvantage in numbers and that is what World Rugby should be looking for.
I wrote it in my previous diary entry this past Monday: If the focus on keeping a contact sport like rugby as safe as it can possibly be is going to remain as intense as it is becoming, then an alternative punishment, such as replacing carded players from the bench, really does need to be considered. It is too easy for a red card to ruin an occasion and it is particularly ridiculous when it is the result of an accident. There does need to be more focus on intent too.
WHY WORLD RANKINGS CAN’T BE TAKEN TOO SERIOUSLY
Just under a year and a half out form the next World Cup, there is big focus on world rankings, with South Africa and New Zealand having dropped to third and fourth respectively following the July internationals. At this time though when various coaches will be experimenting and trying things, how seriously can we take the rankings?
That question was sparked by something former Bok captain John Smit said on First XV on Thursday night. The Boks played an alternative team in the second test against Wales, and we are mostly in agreement with coach Jacques Nienaber for doing that. He does need to take a long view.
But the Boks probably wouldn’t have lost that game had Nienaber not made 14 changes. As Smit rightly pointed out, the rankings don’t take that explanatory narrative into account, they focus only on stats. And there really is no other way to do it. It does though undermine those who want to look at the rankings as a hard and fast measure of the current balance of power.
IT IS FAIR RIGHT NOW THOUGH
After beating the All Blacks in New Zealand, Ireland do deserve their No 1 ranking. I am in agreement though with Jake White - France are the best team on the planet currently and the one to beat at the World Cup. The whole RWC outlook is skewed though by the fact that the French, South Africans, Kiwis and Irishmen are all in each other’s paths to the final, with England definitely getting the luck of the draw.
France might be the team to beat, but England have been given a leg up that must make them a good bet for those inclined to wager their hard earned cash on these things.
NO ROOM AT THE INN
The first game between the Boks and the All Blacks is now two weeks away and is being eagerly anticipated. An indication of the interest in the game is the fact that if you look for accommodation in Nelspruit/Mbombela for that Saturday night, 6 August, you are wasting your time. There is no room at any inn, hotel, bed and breakfast or self-catering establishment.
And if you try for a place 20 kilometres up the road you are are wasting your time too. White River seems fully booked too, at least judging from how long it is taking the people who run the establishments I have enquired at to come back to me. So it looks like Hazyview, another 40 kilometres up the R40, or Malelane, about an hour in the other direction from Nelspruit along the N4, is your best bet.