The recipe for the Emirates Lions is pretty easy - win with a bonus point against the DHL Stormers in the final round of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, and then hope results go your way.
The ninth-placed team haven’t given up hope that they can still sneak into the top eight - but more hopefully the top seven - if some results do go their way and they do their part and end a two and a half year winning streak against South African franchises by the Stormers on their home ground in Cape Town.
The fact that the Lions were the last South African franchise to beat the Stormers way back on 4 December 2021 says a lot about how tough a task it will be, but given their own form in the last few weeks - including a monumental 14-man win against Glasgow Warriors to dethrone them from the top of the table, the Lions will be believing that nothing is impossible.
That day in Cape Town - a game with five yellow cards - saw a young upstart no.8 in Francke Horn score a brace of tries, while Andre Warner and Vincent Tshituka added tries in an impressive victory for the Lions.
Since then the Lions have had the same pitfalls that they have repeatedly stepped in. This season is no exception. They have shown some exceptional form in patches, only to lapse back into mediocrity at the precise time they need to step up.
STORMERS FAVOURED BUT UPSET POSSIBLE
And that brings us to this weekend’s derby match, one that the Stormers will be heavily favoured to win, but that the Lions will have more than enough hope of causing an upset.
The Hollywoodbets Sharks win over Gloucester in the EPCR Challenge Cup final has complicated matters a bit. Whereas the Lions would normally just need a top eight finish, if they have aims of qualifying for next season’s Investec Champions Cup, it now needs to be a top seven finish, which will require all sorts of permutations to go their way.
The separator will be the number of wins for each team if they are tied. Here the Lions are at a significant disadvantage. They have nine wins while the teams above them - Benetton in eighth have 10, Edinburgh in seventh have 11 and Ulster in sixth have 11. So a win would only partly help them.
The Lions know they will need a win with a bonus point, then they will have to wait for the Munster-Ulster game later on Saturday night, which will be crucial. Should Ulster lose without a bonus point it will open the way for them to sneak past them.
But that’s not all. Edinburgh and Benetton face off with the winner guaranteed of a top eight spot. A draw would be the best result for the Lions in that game, but a win with a bonus point by either side would see them level on points if the Lions pick up five in Cape Town. Currently the Lions have a better points differential but that would count for nothing as both those sides have more wins than them.
Either way, the other games will be just as important for the Lions as their own match in Cape Town. One slip up and the Champions Cup dream has disappeared.
But after their 14-man heroics against the Warriors 10 days ago, they will know anything is possible. And will be banking on the fact anything can happen.