There will be a lot of focus on the Gauteng derby, which is the only Vodacom United Rugby Championship game to be played in South Africa, but this weekend is no less critical for the two coastal teams that will be playing overseas on Saturday night.
The Hollywoodbets Sharks need to get back on the horse after the humbling experience of conceding 10 tries and 66 points to Bordeaux Begles in France in the Investec Champions Cup.
Their exit from that competition should mean extra emphasis on the URC as they wouldn’t want to be relying on the EPCR Challenge Cup to get them into the elite European competition this time around.
The reason they shouldn’t be banking on the Challenge Cup is because last year they at least had some home games during the knock-out round. Up until the semifinal at their nominal home from home, The Stoop in London, they played their playoff games at Hollywoodbets Kings Park.
This time around that won’t be possible as the Champions Cup teams that drop into the Challenge Cup have to play away.
But the Sharks’ URC campaign has been like day compared to night in comparison to last year’s, and they should comfortably finish in the top eight. Indeed, a top four finish is entirely possible, and for that much hinges on how they go against Cardiff at Arms Park on Saturday.
CAPE TEAM BATTLING FOR TOP EIGHT IF THEY LOSE
For the DHL Stormers a top eight finish is much less certain and while the derby phase was mostly good to them in the last month of last year, with a narrow defeat to the Sharks in Durban being followed by wins over the Lions and Sharks in Cape Town, they face three tough derbies after their visit to Leinster.
The Vodacom Bulls will be visiting DHL Stadium on 8 February for the Stormers’ last home derby of the season and then they travel to Gauteng for their remaining two games. They are currently 10th, within touching distance of the top eight, but if you speak to people in the Stormers camp, it becomes evident that the real aim is still a top four finish that secures at least one home playoff game.
Can @THESTORMERS end @leinsterrugby's unbeaten run? đź‘€
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To do that it is imperative to get across the line against Leinster on Saturday night. That won’t be easy, as Leinster are unbeaten in all competitions and top the URC log by 10 points. They have a winning habit and an undeniable culture of excellence plus the motivation coming from the hurt of losing three successive Champions Cup finals and also failing to get a feel of the URC trophy in those seasons.
However, there is an opportunity for the Stormers that they spotted ages ago - most of the top Leinster players are away in Portugal at an Ireland training camp ahead of next week’s kick-off of the Guinness Six Nations.
While he paid lift service last week to the need to beat Racing 92 to stay in the Champions Cup, the Aviva Stadium game was the one that Stormers director of rugby John Dobson targeted on his team's two match tour. It was why he rested his top players in Paris.
The Stormers have made no effort to hide from how massively important this game is for them. If they win they have top four aspirations, if they lose they might be almost on a knock-out footing from here on just to make the top eight.
Their form away isn’t really ever comparable to their form at home but they did pick up an impressive head of steam over their two home derbies and into the big win over Sale Sharks that gives them a proper chance of clipping high flying Leinster’s wings on Saturday.
HIGH STAKES IN JOBURG TOO
When it comes to the local derby, there’s a lot on the line for both teams - for Jake White’s Bulls there’s a need to get back onto the winning trail and back into their quest for a top two finish (finishing first is unrealistic given Leinster’s form over the season) following their loss to the Sharks last time out, while the Lions have dropped out of the top 10 and can’t afford another defeat.
When it comes to the two Gauteng teams it needs to be remembered that there is considerable distortion to their positions on the log due to them having two games in hand on the overseas teams and one in hand on the other local teams. The log positions and points are included after the previews and predictions.
Are you ready for this colossal clash in the forward pack?
— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) January 23, 2025
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đź—“: Sat, 25 Jan
⏰: 14:45
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The Bulls were back to their imperious best when they thrashed Stade Francais last week, and while this is an away game for them, last year they were much more comfortable in winning at Emirates Airlines Park than they were when they squeaked to a narrow win in Pretoria.
The Lions hit their straps against the Dragons to arrest what had become a bit of a slump and although you can’t place the Welsh team in the same bracket as the Bulls, it was arguably the perfect way to build up to the derby. What they needed most was to rediscover their confidence, and they did that.
There has been much talk about the flyhalf situation at the Bulls following the injury to Johan Goosen. The Lions don’t really have that problem, as young Sam Francis was good last week and has been growing into his job, while Gianni Lombard showed some good touches as a replacement.
Previews and Predictions (Week 10 of Vodacom United Rugby Championship)
Ospreys v Benetton (Swansea, Friday 9:35pm)
With 14th placed Ospreys just five points away from the top eight, there’s something for most teams to play for and the respective log positions of the protagonists makes this game quite a biggie. Benetton are seventh and a win for them will lift them into the bracket challenging for a top four spot.
A loss will send them back towards where the Ospreys are now. Benetton shocked La Rochelle last week but they had their Italy internationals in tow, which shouldn’t be the case in this game because the Guinness Six Nations starts next week.
Prediction: Ospreys to win by 8
Emirates Lions v Vodacom Bulls (Johannesburg, Saturday 2:45pm)
This is the start of what could be a decisive derby phase for these two teams. Well, both teams did play and lose to coastal teams before Christmas, but from now it is only derbies until the second half of March, and those games will determine how close the Bulls can come to pressing for a top two spot - top four should be almost a given for them - and whether the Lions have realistic hopes of making it to the top four, which was their stated aim at the start of the season.
It’s hard to predict the outcome of derbies as they tend to be levellers. Last year was a case in point - the Lions should have won at Loftus, they missed a last gasp penalty in a game where they were the better team, but were comprehensively outplayed when they hosted the Bulls a few weeks later.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 7
Scarlets v Edinburgh (Llanelli, Saturday 5pm)
Scarlets are flying this season, with the Llanelli based team occupying sixth position on the log at the halfway point. Edinburgh are just one point behind them in eighth, however, so an away win could tip things massively against the hosts. Both teams will be missing players to international commitments in equal amounts so that shouldn’t be too much of a factor so I will go with home ground advantage.
Prediction: Scarlets to win by 7
Leinster v DHL Stormers (Dublin, Saturday 7pm)
There’s been a lot made of Leinster being under strength but everyone knows that their second string team is good enough to be at least competitive against most comers. Not long ago there were some who contended their second team was the second best in the league.
That latter point probably no longer holds, and the reason Leinster have never beaten the Stormers is because they’ve never played against the Cape side completely at full strength. Their strongest selection was probably the one that drew with the Stormers in inclement weather at the RDS Arena two seasons ago.
That’s the only time before now though that the Stormers and Leinster have met away from Cape Town, so that is a perspective that needs to be considered. The Bulls are the only local team to have beaten Leinster away.
So the Stormers will be looking to break new ground, and the absent Ireland internationals are counter-balanced from a Leinster viewpoint by the expected presence of James Lowe while Jordie Barrett and RG Snyman are of course also on the Leinster books.
Prediction: Stormers to win by less than 7
Cardiff Rugby v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Cardiff, Saturday 7:15pm)
If you listen to Sharks coach John Plumtree speak it becomes very clear that he sees this juncture of the season as a period that has to be survived. He has so many top players down due to injury that he has had to cobble together some combinations, as evidenced by the captain for this game, Vincent Tshituka, having to move from loose-forward to the second row.
The former Lions player has played lock before, but when you have players like Eben Etzebeth, Emile van Heerden, Corne Rahl and Gerbrandt Grobler together with Saturday’s other starting lock Jason Jenkins you’d imagine it would never be necessary.
But it is because all those players are injured, as are Andre Esterhuizen, Aphelele Fassi and now Ox Nche. Siya Kolisi is being rested for this game due to Springbok resting protocols.
The Sharks might still be good enough to beat Cardiff in Cardiff, but the hosts have experienced a bit of a resurgence this season. A bit? It’s actually a massive resurgence if you consider they have been well out of the placings in all three previous incarnations of the URC and are now third.
They will be difficult opponents. But like the Stormers, the Sharks also get a leg up because their opponents should be missing players to Six Nations preparations. Which is why I back the Sharks to win.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 8
Dragons v Munster (Newport, Saturday 9:35pm)
Munster went through a period of upheaval after being thrashed by the Sharks in late October but if you look at their Investec Champions Cup results this season it makes for interesting reading.
They won both home games, with a big win over Stade Francais in December being followed by a good 17-12 win over Saracens in January, and their other two games away against Castres and Northampton Saints they lost by just two points. That’s an indication they are heading back to their former strength and should have enough to beat the Dragons as they look to lift themselves towards the top eight.
Prediction: Munster to win by 9
Glasgow Warriors v Connacht (Glasgow, Sunday 5:30pm)
Is there anyone who still doesn’t believe in global warming and climate change? There’s certainly been enough noise made by the climactic conditions when it comes to sport north of the equator over the past few months.
This game was initially scheduled for Friday night, but was moved because of a severe weather warning that was a potential threat to the Scotstoun faithful. The switch of days doesn’t lessen the quandary - normally Glasgow would win, but how many players are they missing to Scotland duty?
Connacht don’t have that many Ireland internationals, but they will be missing the influential Bundee Aki. Franco Smith should have enough depth to squeak it on their home field.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by less than 7
Ulster v Zebre (Belfast, Sunday 7:30pm)
Ulster snuck into the Champions Cup round of 16 when the Sharks were smashed by Bordeaux last Sunday and that in a weird way might have uplifted them and given them psychological momentum. Zebre have been better this season but shouldn’t have enough to make a serious challenge in Belfast.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 15
Vodacom URC log positions
1. Leinster 43 points (9 games), 2. Glasgow Warriors 33 points (9 games), 3. Cardiff 28 points (9 games), 4. Vodacom Bulls 25 points (7 games), 5. Hollywoodbets Sharks 24 points (8 games), 6. Scarlets 23 points (9 games), 7. Benetton 23 points (9 games), 8. Edinburgh 22 points (9 games), 9. Ulster 22 points (9 games), 10. DHL Stormers 21 points (8 games), 11. Munster 21 points (9 games), 12. Emirates Lions 19 points (7 games), 13. Connacht 18 points (9 games), 14. Ospeys 17 points (9 games), 15. Zebre 12 points (9 games), Dragons 8 points (9 games).