Before we trot out that old cliché used by sportswriters when a challenge gets incrementally stiffer, you know that one about the honeymoon now being over, let’s also be realistic about what happened in last week’s first round of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.
There was nothing really gimme about any of the games played by South African teams. Yes, the Vodacom Bulls were only playing Zebre, and the less fashionable of the two Italian teams are pretty close to being considered perennial cellar dwellers in this competition. But Zebre can be tough on the opening weekend, particularly at home, and last week most of the Bulls’ first-choice team was in Perth for the Springbok game against the Wallabies.
Connacht didn’t field all their current Ireland internationals as they are being bled back, as is the case with the international players at the other Irish provinces, for the purposes of giving them a proper off-season break after the Irish summer tour for the away leg of the Nations Championship. But they were far closer to full strength than the DHL Stormers, who were pretty much missing two thirds of their team to Bok duty and also a few additional players to injuries.
The Cape side was further rocked on the day of the game when Evan Roos and Marcel Theunissen had to withdraw and that caused a reshuffle of the back row. All things considered, they did really well to win at a venue many visiting teams struggle at.
Then there was Leinster. Yes, that was a Leinster youth team, definitely under-strength. But we know how organised any Leinster team that is selected tends to be. And they’re invariably competitive. Which they were at Ellis Park against the 10Bet Lions.
Perhaps the one certainty was the Hollywoodbets Sharks, but even in their case you have to slide in the caveat that they have several young players new to this level of rugby. Potential yes. Proven? Not completely, although they are doing rather well on that score.
The Sharks are the one local team that has changed quite significantly this week. They have six current Boks back in their 23. But then Leinster have strengthened too, and will be captained by Ireland international Ronan Kelleher, with the team also including Josh van der Flier, and while the halfbacks that did well last week in Johannesburg have been backed, Sam Prendergast is on the Leinster bench.
The loss to the Lions will serve as extra motivation to Leinster, and their loss to Glasgow Warriors will put Munster extra on edge in Limerick when they host the Bulls. Now you can see what is meant when it is said it should be tougher this week, with this second round being more of a litmus test of where the SA teams really stand - although no definitive answers are ever provided in round two of an 18-round competition either.
But we do have a bit more form to go on than seven days ago - Edinburgh can’t be bad if they won well away against Ulster. Stormers director of rugby John Dobson said it at his team announcement press conference - his team will have to play well to win at The Hive. And be more clinical over 80 minutes than they were in Connacht, where at times they played Father Christmas with their eagerness to keep their opponents they had no right to be in, given how dominant the Stormers were.
The Sharks need to be more defensively sound against Leinster than they were against the Ospreys.
SECOND ROUND VODACOM URC FIXTURES
Edinburgh v DHL Stormers (Edinburgh, Friday 8:45pm)
The Stormers have Siya Kolisi back playing his first game for them since he left for the Sharks in 2021. With Ben-Jason Dixon still clearly not passing his concussion protocols, Kolisi is the only big addition to the Stormers for this game, although in time we will be talking about flyhalf Yaqeen Ahmed as big. He makes his first URC start in the game at the Hive. Edinburgh have made two changes to the side that beat Ulster, both in the front row, where, of course, it goes without saying Edinburgh will have to be on point. The Stormers have a lot of front-row depth. One of the home team’s changes is the return of South African-born Scottish international Pierre Schoeman. This game will go to the wire.
Prediction: Stormers to edge it by the narrowest of margins.
Benetton v Connacht (Treviso, Friday 8:45pm)
Benetton won’t have been happy to have been held to a draw by the Dragons last week, not that Connacht will have been happy to lose at home to the Stormers. Connacht welcome back six Irish internationals, one of them being debutant Ciaran Frawley, who is down to play flyhalf. Both teams have strengthened since last week and it is too close to call.
Prediction: It will be a good game.
Cardiff v Zebre (Cardiff, Friday 8:45pm)
On last week’s evidence against the Bulls, Zebre should find Cardiff too strong at home on their 4G pitch. They were nigh unbeatable at Cardiff Arms Park last season.
Prediction: Cardiff to win by 15 or more.
10Bet Lions v Ospreys (Johannesburg, Saturday 1:45pm)
Springboks Morne van den Berg and Quan Horn make their return to the Lions squad via the bench. The Lions laboured a bit last week against Leinster, at least a bit more than expected given that Leinster were under-strength. The Lions’ defence isn’t always convincing and may need to tighten a bit against an Ospreys team that were generally outplayed but still managed to score four tries against the Sharks.
Prediction: Lions to win by 15.
Dragons v Scarlets (Newport, Saturday 4pm)
It’s hard to tell what will happen when two Welsh teams play each other so let’s just go with a form guide - Scarlets lost by six points at home to Cardiff last week, whereas the Dragons drew away in Treviso. With the Dragons at home this week, that’s enough to make them favourites.
Prediction: Dragons to win.
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Leinster (Durban, Saturday 6:30pm)
With six Boks back - three in the starting team and three playing off the bench - the Sharks have a definite chance of following up last week’s opening win against the Ospreys by upsetting Leinster. Or would it be such an upset? Leinster have made five changes to the side that lost by one point to the Lions in Johannesburg, but it is not as if they are anywhere near full strength, and the Sharks will have some strut and energy after last week. This is a big test for the Sharks and it is one I suspect they will pass.
Prediction: Sharks to win 7
Glasgow Warriors v Ulster (Glasgow, Saturday 6:30pm)
There’s a bit of history between Glasgow and Ulster. Actually, there seems to be some history between Glasgow and just about everyone. If they were good enough to win away against Munster in the first round, they should be good enough to win at the Scotstoun against an Ulster team that lost to Edinburgh.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 8.
Munster v Vodacom Bulls (Limerick, Saturday 8:45pm)
The Bulls’ margin of victory last week was impressive, but they know they will be up against far stiffer opposition in the form of a Munster team that will be smarting after losing to Glasgow. In fact, the whole of Ireland is smarting at the moment - all four of their teams lost last week. But they’re all getting key international players back, and Munster have made a whopping 11 changes for this game. Bulls coach Johan Ackermann has also rung the changes, at least at the back, where Hakeem Kunene, recruited in the off-season from the Sharks, plays at fullback to allow veteran Springbok Willie le Roux to play an impact role later in the game, while wing Stravino Jacobs has been moved to inside centre, where he will partner Stedman Gans. Zak Burger’s selection at scrumhalf is notable because it comes at the expense of last week’s man of the match, Paul de Wet.
With both teams having made so many changes, it makes predictions difficult, but Munster’s changes do seem more obviously to strengthen them, whereas with the Bulls it is a case of let’s just see how it turns out. Munster are at home and they don’t often lose there consecutively, so they must start as favourites.
Prediction: Munster to win by 9