The coastal teams remain on a knife-edge and the Emirates Lions face a tall order preserving their unbeaten record but a decent haul of wins from the final round of this phase of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship season will be South Africa’s best ever start in the competition.
Of course, success is not new to local teams in the URC. The DHL Stormers won it in the first season under its current guise after morphing from being the PRO14. The Cape side hosted the second final a year later, and only just lost in the final minutes to Munster. And of course the Vodacom Bulls finished second on the overall log before losing a home final last season.
But in all three seasons that have been concluded thus far the South African challenge has started slowly for at least some of the teams, with the Stormers and Bulls at one point in the bottom rung of the table before coming through to contest the inaugural final, the Stormers were in a similar situation last season, and the Lions and Hollywoodbet Sharks also know what it is like to get to the sixth game with hardly anything to show for their efforts.
It's a top of the table clash at the AVIVA this Saturday.
— Lions (@LionsRugbyCo) October 22, 2024
🆚 Leinster
🗓: Sat, 26 October
⏰: 18:15
🏟 : AVIVA Stadium#LEIvLIO#ForOurCity
Vodacom #URC | #HitsDifferent#LionsPride🦁 pic.twitter.com/hVkuwfIvYx
It has been a dramatic turnaround for the Lions as they continue to grow, and regardless of how they do against Leinster, they will end this first phase, which for the South African teams means five games instead of six before the international break, with four wins. They will be well placed when the competition returns after the Springbok end of year tour at the end of November.
Ditto the Bulls if they get across the line against Benetton in the final game of this first tour of the URC season. The two wins at Loftus against Edinburgh and Ulster were expected, but two wins from three starts overseas will make it an impressive start and put them alongside the Lions as the top SA challengers at this point.
The two games being played on SA soil have a lot riding on them, not least because they are against top contenders who can see their challenges hurt by a second defeat in this country, but also because the Sharks and Stormers will slip back if they surrender momentum. For the two Johns, Plumtree and Dobson, this weekend is about determining how much pressure they and their teams will be under when they return to action by facing off against each other in Durban on 30 November.
Vodacom United Rugby Championship fixtures (Round 6)
Benetton v Vodacom Bulls (Treviso, Friday 20.35)
Although Benetton thrashed the Sharks in Treviso two weeks ago, it needs to be noted that was the under-strength Sharks team, and not the one that outplayed the champions until they let the pressure off late in their game in Durban last week. The Bulls were unlucky last week and should feel aggrieved at a red card that was later rescinded. Jake White has changed up his team to a stronger combination, on paper at least, and if they let the anger of what happened a week ago drive them, but in a controlled manner, they should win. Benetton though have picked up some momentum and are not to be trifled with, particularly not on their home ground, so it should be a closely fought game.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 7
Scarlets v Zebre (Llanelli, Friday 20.35)
The Scarlets shocked the Bulls a week ago and the Welsh teams generally appear better than they were before. Zebre haven’t shaped so well since their shock win over Munster, although two of their three losses subsequent to that were to South African teams, and the one to the Lions was by just one point. The form guide says that at Parc Y Scarlets the Scarlets have the edge.
Prediction: Scarlets to win by 10
DHL Stormers v Glasgow Warriors (Stellenbosch, Saturday 13.45)
The Stormers felt they were still some way short of their A game against Munster last week, which is an ominous warning to Glasgow, as they did get a monkey off their back by beating a team they hadn’t beaten before and which denied them a second successive URC title in the 2022/23 final. Glasgow are the reigning champions and although they lost last week in Durban, they did leave with something thanks to their two late tries that should have boosted their confidence for this game. It is difficult to tell what the fact the game is being played at the Danie Craven Stadium means to the Stormers chances. Everyone knows DHL Stadium is a Stormers fortress. But then so is the Stellenbosch venue in the sense that the Stormers have never lost there. They were very good in dispatching Zebre in Stellenbosch at the start of their 2021/2022 winning run, but then it was only Zebre. Glasgow are good enough to win. Any team that can win a final at Loftus is good enough. But the Stormers should have Manie Libbok and Frans Malherbe back and will be as desperate at last week. They also owe Glasgow one in the sense that it was the Glaswegians who knocked them out in the quarterfinal stage last season. The Stormers have in fact lost three in a row to the Warriors, all away.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 7
Ospreys v Edinburgh (Swansea, Saturday 16.00)
Edinburgh have picked up an impressive head of steam following their disastrous humiliation at the hands of the Emirates Lions three weeks ago, but both games were at home. Travelling to the Ospreys will be a challenge for them and in truth it is hard to predict what will happen in this game.
Prediction: Ospreys to edge it.
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Munster (Durban, Saturday 16.00)
The Sharks beat the champions last week - and felt they weren’t quite as good as they could have been. Inevitably there was a bit of rust, but when the Sharks put it together they looked impressive. The key this week is for them just to sustain those periods of impressive rugby for longer. Make no mistake, Munster do mount a challenge. And they will remember that a draw at Kings Park, where they came back from a big deficit, was part of their successful run to the trophy in 2022/2023. But I like the look of the Sharks loose trio with Siya Kolisi at No 8 and James Venter providing the scavenging role on the openside flank, and the selection of the sharp Grant Williams in the No 9 jersey won’t harm them either. Jordan Hendrikse made some mistakes but was generally good in his first game for the Sharks at flyhalf and should grow further in this game, as should the Sharks as a team. The Sharks should have too much for their opponents and it will be a similar result to the one that Munster suffered in Cape Town last week.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 15
🔥Your Hollywoodbets Sharks team for Saturday 🔥
— The Sharks (@SharksRugby) October 24, 2024
Comment below with who you're excited to see ⬇️
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Leinster v Emirates Lions (Dublin, Saturday 18.15)
The Lions really have nothing to lose in this game, and go out to test themselves without feeling too much pressure. Hopefully if it is a dry evening that will translate into the Lions being able to chance their arm and play with the joie de vivre that buried Ulster and Edinburgh at Emirates Airlines Park at the start of the competition. If they can produce a few X-factor moments, they may have a chance, and let’s not forget what they did to Connacht when they were down to 14 men at The Sportsground in Galway not that long ago. Realistically though you’d have to say that Leinster, who are in commanding form, start as strong favourites. My fear is that this might be the game where the Lions’ commitment to Currie Cup success catches up with them. In which case Leinster might win by quite a margin.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 15 or more
Cardiff Rugby v Ulster (Cardiff, Saturday 20.35)
Ulster have lost two games, both in South Africa, and have the same reason for being desperate to win as the SA sides do this weekend - victory will put them in a strong position, with four wins in six starts. Cardiff have impressed at times but mostly haven’t met the pre-season expectations. They have a chance at home, but Ulster have the edge going into this game.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 8
Connacht v Dragons (Galway, Saturday 20.35)
Connacht have only won twice in five starts, but in most games except for the one against Leinster they’ve been very close and come close to winning. The Dragons have been more competitive than expected, and were unlucky to lose to the Sharks and also only just lost to the Lions. But both those games were at home. Connacht away should be too much for them.
Prediction: Connacht to win by 16