Often when you head into the playoff phase of a competition everything becomes a whole lot less predictable, but the Vodacom URC Finals Series is an exception to that general rule.
While in the league phase of competition it was hard to predict what might happen, and there were several upsets again during a competitive regular season, there’s arguably only one game in the quarterfinal round where you can argue there isn’t a clear favourite.
That happens to be the only one not involving a South African team as the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions this year join the perennial local playoff participants, the DHL Stormers and Vodacom Bulls, in the quest to make it into the last four. The Lions will be hard pressed though to keep their campaign alive at a venue where they lost quite comprehensively to an understrength Leinster three weeks ago.
HOME TEAMS ARE CLEAR FAVOURITES
Leinster are clear favourites, just as are the Stormers as they host the Cardiff team that knocked them out of a top two finish in the final league games and the Bulls, who have had some close games against Munster in the past but should be expected to win the later game of the local double header in Pretoria.
Of the two, it is the Stormers who are more certain of victory, for Munster do have a lot of experience of playoff rugby and went to a kick-off after holding the Hollywoodbets Sharks to a draw after extra time in last year’s away quarterfinal in Durban. That, like their win over the Stormers in the 2023 final, which they reached by winning away from home, is an indication that they should back themselves to be competitive away from Limerick.
The game that is definitely not a gimme is the one on Friday night between top seeds Glasgow Warriors and eighth seeds Connacht. That Connacht just crept into the playoff placings and Glasgow finished top would suggest Glasgow are clear favourites, which they are, but it is Connacht who are the form team of the two Scotstoun protagonists.
Should all the games go according to the predictions this week, then the Stormers will head to Leinster next week and the Bulls to Glasgow for their semifinals, but a Connacht win will send them to Pretoria, provided of course the Bulls win against Munster.
The fourth ranked team hosting the eighth ranked team while the third seed has to go to the second seed seems grossly unfair, for surely the highest seedings left in the draw should host the lower seeded opponents according to seeding, but that is not the way it works in the URC, probably mainly because options need to be limited for logistical reasons.
Vodacom URC quarterfinal previews and predictions
Friday, 29 May
Glasgow Warriors (1) v Connacht (8) - Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow, 20.45
As usual at this time of the season, both teams have suffered injuries in the latter part, but lock Scott Cummins will be returning his experience to the Glasgow Warriors engine room while prop Dylan Tierney-Martin and lock Darragh Murray are back in the Connacht starting team after recovering from their injuries. Connacht won comfortably against Edinburgh two weeks ago in a game where the hosts had most of the ball and did most of the playing, which is an indicator that Connacht have a good defence and excellent transition game. It will be that discipline and patience they will have to rely on if they are to score what, if it happens, will most likely be the only upset of the quarterfinal round. Glasgow by contrast will be hoping to get their attack connected and their driving maul working, two aspects of their game that drive their successful results. While there are many pundits expecting Connacht to win, and their recent run of wins does mean they take momentum into the game, Glasgow have only lost once at home in the last year and a half, which was to Toulon in their Champions Cup quarterfinal in April. That kind of home dominance must mean something and makes it hard to bet against the hosts.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 7
Saturday, 30 May
Vodacom Bulls (4) v Munster (5) - Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, 13.00)
The Bulls will have infuriated their fans in recent games with their penchant for loosening it up and presenting opponents with ways back into the contest. It happened at stages of both the game against Zebre and the final league clash with Benetton. It goes without saying that Munster, who have a good travelling record in playoff games, will punish the Bulls if they make the same mistakes against them. The Bulls should be looking to lay the platform through their forwards and if they do they have the physical and technical prowess to win with something to spare. The teams will be announced later on Friday.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 10
DHL Stormers (3) v Cardiff (6) - DHL Stadium, Cape Town, 15.30)
Cardiff were excellent against the Stormers in Cardiff two weeks ago but playing the Stormers on their home grassy field in front of their fans is a very different experience to playing them on the fast, bouncy and unfamiliar (for the Stormers) 4G surface of Cardiff Arms Park. The Stormers are expecting an improvement in the Cardiff scrum but the dominance the Cape big men enjoyed in that phase was so complete that they should be expecting to lay the foundation in an area they have excelled this season. There was a slight injury doubt to Leolin Zas after training on Wednesday, which would offset the positive, which is the return from injury of Seabelo Senatla. The Stormers will be looking to utilise his pace and firepower out wide, and they will also be pleased to have Ruhan Nel back to both marshal the defence and lead the team.
Prediction: Stormers to win by more than 12
Leinster (2) v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (7) - AVIVA Stadium, Dublin, 21.00)
No-one will be supporting the Lions more passionately in this game than the Stormers, assuming the Stormers are still in the competition on Saturday night of course, as a win for the Johannesburg team will send them to a semifinal in Cape Town. A Leinster win and a Stormers win sets up a Dublin semifinal between the two teams next week. The Lions had their moments in the recent league game against Leinster and things happened in that game that will have angered the visitors and increased their resolve. Unfortunately though they have lost two key personnel to injury - the game making authority of scrumhalf Morne van den Bergh and the physicality of Ruan Venter. The latter could prove to be the biggest miss as last week’s Champions Cup final exposed a Leinster vulnerability to really physical opponents. Venter is arguably the Lions’ most physical player.
Much will hinge on how Leinster have recovered from that European final defeat - there has been strong talk out of Dublin this week about them wanting to bounce back from disappointment by winning the URC, but talk is cheap and, as the old saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. In other words, we will only know what their mindset is in the game itself. The indicators are that they won’t have much of a crowd behind them, with the European disappointment apparently being reflected in ticket sales. However, Leinster are usually a different animal at the AVIVA, where they haven’t lost this season, and the Lions are not the same ferocious animal away from home than they are at Ellis Park.
Prediction: Leinster to win by more than 15