The Vodacom Bulls should do what they need to do but this weekend is a decisive point in the 2025/2026 season for the DHL Stormers and the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions.
A riveting Vodacom URC season heads into its penultimate round with two games on Friday night that set the trend for a round in which there are nine teams still in contention and yet only one game where those contending teams are not playing each other. The exception is indeed Loftus, where Johan Ackermann’s Bulls, looking for entry into the top four rather than worrying anymore about top-eight qualification, should be expected to pick up full points against the last-placed Zebre.
Elsewhere, there is jeopardy and consequence almost everywhere you look, starting with the top two teams being in action on Friday, with the first-placed Stormers in Belfast to play eighth-placed Ulster at a venue where they haven’t won before, while the second-placed Glasgow Warriors look to pick up the pieces after their disastrous South African tour by hosting sixth-placed Cardiff.
It is so tight at the top that the sixth-placed team could still conceivably finish top, although the Stormers could put a limit on the number of teams dreaming of pole position if they do get across the line at Ravenshill. If they win and Glasgow win, top spot will still be up for grabs in the final round, but the number of teams able to finish in the top two would have been cut.
That’s why this game is such a decisive one for the Stormers, as is the third-placed Lions’ visit to Leinster, a team that has the same number of log points as they do. A victory in Dublin will make them almost certain of a top-four finish, whereas defeat could leave them dropping places and being forced to travel for their quarterfinal rather than hosting it.
MATHEMATICAL IMPROBABILITY
A top-eight finish is pretty secure for the Lions in the sense that while there is a mathematical possibility of ninth-placed Connacht, currently nine points behind them, overtaking the Johannesburg side, the fact that all the teams in the top nine are playing each other over the last two rounds turns possibility into improbability. In fact, it is now nigh impossible for the Lions to miss out on their first-ever top-eight finish in this competition.
The biggest game between contending teams outside of those already mentioned is the one in Galway, where Connacht are hosting Munster in an Irish derby that both teams will be desperate to win. For Munster, it is about getting into the top four, which they can still do because they are just two points behind the Lions and Leinster, while for Connacht, the quest is for a top-eight finish and entry into the playoffs and qualification for next season’s Investec Champions Cup.
On that - Ulster are in the EPCR Challenge Cup final and if they beat Montpellier in Bilbao in that decider on 22 May, they will automatically qualify for the Champions Cup. In which case if they finish ninth, the eighth-placed team in the URC would not make it into the Champions Cup but would still obviously play in the URC playoffs.
A clash of intent. One statement to make ✍️#BKTURC | #RaceToTheEight #LEIvLIO pic.twitter.com/uu0r9PuUR5
— BKT United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial) May 6, 2026
Vodacom URC Round 17 previews and predictions
Glasgow v Cardiff (Glasgow, Friday 8.45pm)
Glasgow were flying and then they lost three in a row, if you factor in their defeat at the hands of Toulon in the Champions Cup quarterfinal. They’ve had their first break in a while and although Cardiff are having a good season and are in contention for a top-four finish, they should have regrouped enough to rediscover their Scotstoun mojo.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 8
Ulster v DHL Stormers (Belfast, Friday 8.45pm)
The Stormers are looking to cross another frontier in a season where they have won at a few venues where they haven’t won before (Munster and Treviso) and also have to put their 4G pitch bogey properly to bed. Ulster have injury problems but will be supremely motivated and it will be a close game, but the momentum they picked up in their thrashing of Glasgow could just edge it for the visitors.
Prediction: Stormers to win by 7
Deon Fourie captains in Belfast on Friday night as Ruhan Nel misses out this week due to a calf injury.
— DHL Stormers (@THESTORMERS) May 7, 2026
📢 Team announcement https://t.co/JalkvpTrx4
📺 Live on @SuperSportTV #ULSvSTO #inittogether @Vodacom #URC pic.twitter.com/MKxebmWt9u
Vodacom Bulls v Zebre (Pretoria, Saturday 1.45pm)
The bookies are giving Zebre what is tantamount to a 30-point start and they are probably right, although there is a caveat - the Bulls need to play to their strength and be direct rather than try and run everything like they did in the first half against Scarlets. Zebre are last on the log but can be a difficult team to play against if you don’t get your game right. That said, it is hard to see the Bulls not getting a full house of five log points regardless of what game plan they employ.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 30
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Benetton (Durban, Saturday 4pm)
There hasn’t been much mention of this match this week and for good reason - neither team is still in contention for anything this season and it is a game that forces out that old cliche about “playing for pride”. The Sharks, with the names they have on their books even with their injuries, shouldn’t be in this position, and neither frankly should Benetton, who have so many Italy internationals and beat Leinster last time out. By fielding 18-year-old Zekhethule Siyaya at flyhalf, Sharks coach JP Pietersen has probably added a few bums to the Hollywoodbets Kings Park seats. It is going to be interesting to see how he goes as the Sharks look to the future.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 10
Team Announcement 📣
— The Sharks (@SharksRugby) May 7, 2026
Your Hollywoodbets Sharks are locked in and ready to take on Benetton Rugby this Saturday! 🔥🏉✨ pic.twitter.com/GvwtRfw2EZ
Ospreys v Scarlets (Swansea, Saturday 6.30pm)
This is another game between teams who are no longer in contention and it would probably require some proper Welsh intel, which there is no real need to search for, so I don’t have any, to make an informed prediction. Ospreys are at home so I am giving it to them.
Prediction: Ospreys to win by more than 7
Leinster v Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (Dublin, Saturday 6.30pm)
Shew, there’s been a lot of talk about the Lions lately and they do have a lot to play for in this game. But so do Leinster, who surely won’t be fancying the prospect of having to come to South Africa for their first knock-out game a week after they play their Champions Cup final against Bordeaux-Begles in Bilbao. The time when Leinster might be vulnerable might well be then, at the start of the knockouts, as they will either be recovering from the hangover of a disappointing defeat in the European decider, as they were when they lost a URC semifinal to the Bulls in 2022, or the hangover from celebrations. Right now they should be switched on, although it will be interesting to see if they go with a full-strength team. If they go distinctly second string, all bets are off. The Lions will be competitive and there shouldn’t be much in it but Leinster at home have to be backed.
Prediction: Leinster to win by less than 11.
Dragons v Edinburgh (Newport, Saturday 8.45pm)
The Dragons put a lot of emotion into their Challenge Cup final against Montpellier last week and much will depend in this game on how they have dealt with the disappointment of coming so near and yet so far in their quest to reach what for them would have been a rare appearance in a European final.
Prediction: Edinburgh to edge it.
Connacht v Munster (Galway, Saturday 8.45pm)
Connacht were excellent against the Stormers and better than the scoreline might have suggested when they lost to the Lions. Munster won well last time out against Ulster but Ulster sent a second-string team to Limerick. This is a very hard one to call but on recent form, Connacht might be difficult to knock over on their home field.
Prediction: Connacht to scrape home by the narrowest of margins.
Log positions after 16 games: 1. Stormers 56; 2. Glasgow Warriors 55; 3. Fidelity SecureDrive Lions 53; 4. Leinster 53; 5. Munster 51; 6. Cardiff 50; 7. Vodacom Bulls 49; 8. Ulster 47; 9. Connacht 44; 10: Hollywoodbets Sharks 36; 11. Ospreys 35; 12. Edinburgh 33; 13. Benetton 33; 14. Dragons 25; 15. Scarlets 24; 16. Zebre 15.