So the deciding fortnight of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship comes down to the four top teams squaring up, and with two South African sides play two Irish teams, one away and one at home, it is a litmus test for the progress of the local game.
And in many ways, with the Vodacom Bulls going to Dublin to play Leinster and the DHL Stormers hosting Ulster, they are the perfect match-ups if you want to assess how much and what the two South African sides have learned. It was Ulster that came closest among the foreign teams to beating the Stormers on their home field. It was Leinster that gave the Bulls a wake-up call at the beginning of their URC campaign last September.
The Stormers coaches won’t be under any illusions about their narrow victory over Ulster in March. They were outplayed for large tracts of that game and Ulster will still be considering themselves unlucky to have been denied what would have been a winning try by a TMO call.
Stormers coach John Dobson was confident after that game that his team would find a way to combat the Ulster kicking game, driven by their excellent scrumhalf John Cooney, that had them pegged in a corner for long periods of that clash. After his team’s win over Edinburgh in the quarterfinal at the weekend, he said that a solution had been found.
“Edinburgh tried to do what Ulster did to us today,” said Dobson after his team’s 11-point win.
For the Stormers to advance to the final, they will have to prove they can deal with the Ulster threats they struggled with in March, and that will be an indication of progress. Even though they are playing at home, Ulster do present a formidable obstacle to the Cape team, who carry South Africa’s best hopes of silverware into the weekend’s games.
BULLS DON’T GO TO DUBLIN WITHOUT HOPE
Leinster undeniably set the benchmark heading into the semifinals with their massive win over Glasgow Warriors. Most would have predicted there would be some daylight between Leinster and their opponents at the end of the RDS Stadium game, but few would have anticipated the PRO14 champions and narrowly beaten Champions Cup finalists running up 76 points.
But while Leinster were in imperious form once they got the bit between their teeth, a good look at the entire game would suggest the Bulls don’t go to Dublin completely without hope. In the sense that the Warriors did show the Bulls what not to do. What they mustn’t do is lose their discipline.
It was the high hit by Glasgow forward Richie Gray on a player off the ball near a loose-scrum that effectively changed the course of a game that the visitors had been dominating until that point. Glasgow were leading 7-0 heading towards the 14th minute when Gray was carded. It was when the Warriors were down to 14 men that Leinster struck - they scored 21 points while Gray was off and that was effectively game set and match. Glasgow were always going to struggle once their spirit was broken.
The Bulls will look to retain their discipline under pressure and prevent a repeat in Friday night’s semi-final. For the Bulls an away clash with the championship frontrunners and favourites is a perfect way for their season to end, if indeed it does end here, for they are returning to where they started.
The September game at the AVIVA Stadium was a highly anticipated one, and Leinster coach Leo Cullen spoke recently about how nervous his team was about playing what was then an unknown quantity to them. It was a game he was particularly looking forward to, but in the end the Bulls disappointed with the tameness of their challenge.
The Bulls fell behind early in that game and although they threatened briefly to come back in the middle stages, they were well beaten at 31-3. That is not a score that should inspire Bulls confidence, but then it was over eight months ago. The Bulls would have grown considerably since then and that is why this game will be interesting not just from a Bulls perspective but from a South African one.
JAKE’S MEN UP AGAINST IRELAND NATIONAL TEAM
While it is tempting to suggest that the remaining two weeks - the semifinal weekend and then the decider - will tell us about the power spread between South Africa and Ireland, that is not really true. For a start, the Leinster team that the Bulls will face on Friday is effectively the Ireland national team. When you watch Ireland play, it is noticeable how dominated the team is by Leinster players.
The Bulls by contrast, and quite ironically considering how they dominated South African rugby in the immediate post-lockdown period before slipping a bit this season, are a long way from being the Springbok team. Indeed, as their coach Jake White loves pointing out, they don’t have a current Bok in their starting team.
Secondly, unlike Ireland, the South African national team is not drawn from mainly the URC teams. Far from it. For instance, one of the key Ulster players in Cape Town this coming weekend will be Duane Vermeulen, a Springbok and former Stormers player. Had Munster won the Belfast quarterfinal, we’d be saying the same about Damian de Allende.
Half of the Bok squad selected for last year’s British and Irish Lions series was overseas based, so two Irish wins at the weekend will not equate to doom and gloom about the Bok chances of beating Ireland when they go to Dublin in November or at next year’s Rugby World Cup in France.
A win for either the Stormers or Bulls, and a place in the final, will though say something about the strength of the South African game.
TOP FORM EQUALS FORMIDABLE OBSTACLE
The two Irish teams are in top form. Ulster started gathering momentum in the last league game against the Sharks, and were superb in beating Munster. They were good enough to hesitate about the Stormers being favourites this week, even though they are playing at home. Leinster in turn have answered the question about how they have dealt with the Champions Cup defeat - they are bristling with intent.
Both the Stormers and Bulls may have to raise their games to advance. But then they wouldn’t want it any other way. To be the best you have to beat the best.
The Bulls will certainly have to be a lot better than they were in the second half against the Sharks, while the Stormers may have to be more clinical with their finishing, and be better at stopping the mauls, than they were against Edinburgh. And of course they will have to deal with the Ulster kicking game better too. The Stormers lost that battle hands down in the first half against Edinburgh.
Vodacom United Rugby Championship quarterfinal results
Ulster 36 Munster 17
Vodacom Bulls 30 Cell C Sharks 27
Leinster 76 Glasgow Warriors 14
DHL Stormers 28 Edinburgh 17
?Vodacom United Rugby Championship semifinals
Leinster v Vodacom Bulls (Dublin, Friday 20.35)
DHL Stormers v Ulster (Cape Town, Saturday 15.00)