URC PREVIEW: It's intense just about everywhere

It’s intense. There’s no other way to describe the situation most teams find themselves in as the Vodacom Rugby Championship returns this weekend for round 16, which means there are now just two more rounds to go after this.

It would be tempting to suggest that the plum fixture and most important one is the early Saturday afternoon shoot-out in Pretoria between the Vodacom Bulls and the Glasgow Warriors. It pits the first-placed team against the fourth. The visitors have to win to stay ahead of Leinster and Munster in the race for top spot on the final log, while the Bulls have to win to make their coveted top-four finish safer.

Indeed, Jake White’s men might still have aspirations for a top-two finish, or even finishing top. A win over Glasgow will put them within three points of the Scottish team coached by former Springbok assistant coach Franco Smith.

Leinster would be catchable too as they have a tough derby against Ulster in their future, and it falls a week before the Investec Champions Cup final, where Leinster will be trying to make it third time lucky after successive failures in the competition decider against mighty Toulouse.

Three rounds left of the Vodacom #URC, time is running out to secure a play-off spot ⏳ pic.twitter.com/MU6pRI7yXA

— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) May 7, 2024

That’ll probably mean Leinster will go in under-strength, and they could be vulnerable even at home. The bottom line is that there is a lot on the line for the Bulls on Saturday, not least because defeat will leave them vulnerable to the chasing DHL Stormers in the race for a top-four spot. Or for that matter, a clutch of other teams - the Stormers are six behind the Bulls, but Connacht, Ulster and Benetton are tied together just one point further back.

BULLS CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE

Spit the dummy now and the Bulls, who finish off their campaign with a potentially tricky trip to Durban to play the resurgent Hollywoodbets Sharks, could find themselves not in the top four, but sixth or seventh.

But of course, many of the contending teams face each other in these closing stages and will therefore cancel each other out. This is why, while it is tempting to come up with that old sporting cliche “all roads lead to Loftus”, it will be factually inaccurate. Given Benetton’s position, and potential threat to the top four, their game in Durban against the Sharks is just as important as the one in Pretoria.

And Connacht’s visit to Munster for an Irish derby might just be the most intense match-up of all. Munster returned from a two-game tour of South Africa with full points and are surging, currently third just behind Leinster. But Connacht are fighting for a second successive appearance in the URC playoff phase, and the place in next season’s Champions Cup that goes with it. They tend to raise their game in derbies and Munster will know how tough they are as opponents.

STORMERS' LOSS TO DRAGONS WOULD BE A DISASTER

Connacht face the Stormers the following week in Galway, and that will add to the intensity with which the Cape side will approach Friday night’s game in Newport against the Dragons. John Dobson’s men will be strong favourites, but they haven’t been great in Wales recently. A defeat now would seriously threaten their Champions Cup status, apart from ending any hope of a top-four finish, so the pressure is still on.

The Stormers play on Friday night, as do Edinburgh, who are just outside the top eight currently, in ninth. Their South African coach Sean Everitt will be expecting full points against Zebre to launch them back into the top eight and a final push over the last two games.

Ulster are among the clutch of teams on the same number of points ranked from sixth through to eighth, so they can’t afford to slip away against Scarlets on Saturday afternoon, while the Emirates Lions are in their last chance saloon in their quest for a top eight spot as they host Cardiff. The Lions will be favourites, but the Ospreys showed on their recent tour that Welsh teams can no longer be trifled with, even on South African soil.

Finally, but far from last in order of importance this weekend, is the game between Leinster and the Ospreys. The Ospreys dropped to 10th after losing to the Bulls, but are just four points behind the top eight. It’s simple - if they lose to Leinster, their chances of a playoff place are probably gone, and with it, Champions Cup qualification.

Leinster, by contrast, will know that they have a good chance of going top again as they will fancy the Bulls’ chances of beating Glasgow at their Loftus fortress. Everything that happens this weekend is interconnected - and it’s intense. A script writer could not have come up with a more absorbing and tense finish to the URC regular season.

Round 16 Vodacom United Rugby Championship fixtures

Edinburgh v Zebre (Edinburgh, Friday 08.35)

Dragons v DHL Stormers (Newport, Friday 08.35)

Vodacom Bulls v Glasgow Warriors (Pretoria, Saturday 14.00)

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Benetton (Durban, Saturday 16.05)

Scarlets v Ulster (Llanelli, Saturday 16.05)

Munster v Connacht (Limerick, Saturday 18.15)

Emirates Lions v Cardiff (Johannesburg, Saturday 18.15)

Leinster v Ospreys (Dublin, Saturday 20.35)