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URC PREVIEW: Bulls can set example as SA teams aim high

rugby28 March 2024 09:00| © SuperSport
By:Gavin Rich
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Back in the Super Rugby era there were many years where it was seen as an achievement for some local franchises to still be in contention by the arrival of Easter, but South Africa is in a new age both in terms of competition and the challenge that is being mounted by its teams.

Only the Hollywoodbets Sharks are out of contention for silverware with six rounds of the league phase of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship to go. And even then, there was an interesting response from Vincent Koch when he was asked about the Sharks’ aim for the rest of the season by a questioner who prefaced it by stating that the Durban team were out of the race for URC playoff places.

“Are we? Are you sure about that?”

If Koch’s mischievous response suggested the Sharks are still harbouring secret hopes of a top-eight finish, it would be unrealistic although still not mathematically impossible. They are currently on 14 points, which is 20 points behind the eighth-placed Emirates Lions. There are six games left to play. That’s a maximum of 30 points for the Sharks.

Not only would they be looking for a perfect six games themselves, they’d have to bank on a massive implosion not only from just the Lions but the other teams in contention for top eight spots. For there is quite a logjam that has developed, with just five points separating the fifth-placed DHL Stormers from the 11th-placed Ospreys.

OTHER SA GAMES PLAY SUPPORT ROLE TO DUBLIN

This cues the importance of the games that play a support role to the main event this weekend, which is Friday night’s top-of-the-table clash in Dublin between Leinster and the Vodacom Bulls.

The Lions, fresh from establishing themselves in the top eight with a hugely satisfying win over Connacht, face the Ospreys in Swansea on Saturday.

A win will cement their place in the top eight, a loss will see the Ospreys come back into strong contention. There’s a similar narrative around the Stormers game against Ulster and the earlier one the same afternoon between the Sharks and Edinburgh. Two wins for the local sides there will help the Stormers in their quest for a top-four place, and ditto the Lions if they also win.

Should those three teams win, then the top six positions on the log will be heavily populated by teams from South Africa. And we will see a very different scenario being enacted as we head into the remaining five games of the league than we became used to in Super Rugby, when it was only in very few seasons that there was more than one South African side still challenging once the latter part of April arrived.

Whatever happens this weekend, the Bulls will remain firmly ensconced in the top four. For them, the consequences of defeat are not as dire as a loss would be for the Stormers and Lions. The game is about proving something to themselves, and the URC as a whole, and they can go for broke in their quest to prevent Leinster from continuing their log hegemony in this competition.

Although Leinster have yet to win the URC, they have comfortably dominated the log battle in both seasons. This season has been the closest it has been so far. Does that mean the other teams are closing the gap?

That answer might, in part, be provided by the Bulls on Friday. A win will suggest that the suggestion is correct. Defeat will leave the way clear for Leinster to continue leading the way, with just the potential bump presented by a two-match tour to South Africa, where they play the Stormers and the Lions, to come.

Talking of the Stormers, they did draw with Leinster in Dublin around about this time last year. It wasn’t a full-strength Leinster team, but it wasn’t a second-string team either. And of course, the Bulls shocked Leinster in the 2021-22 semifinal. So it’s not as if Leinster have a complete fortress in position when it comes to South African teams.

WIN OVER LEINSTER WOULD BE MASSIVE STATEMENT

Winning against Leinster though when they are at full strength, which they are expected to be, would, however, be a massive achievement by the Bulls. Leinster are effectively a shadow Ireland team, and Ireland have just won successive Six Nations titles.

A victory would not only be a massive statement from the Bulls, it would also be a big confidence booster for the other South African teams set to go into action the next day. That statement will read: “We as South Africans can boss this competition”.

Remembering of course that the inaugural final was between two local teams. That only happened twice in 26 years of Super Rugby - in 2007 and 2010.

VODACOM URC ROUND 13 PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS

Leinster v Vodacom Bulls (Dublin, Friday 21.35)

There are some other games of massive import this weekend so it would be wrong to bastardise that hoary old cliche to read “all flight paths lead to Dublin”, but it is nonetheless true that if you are going to watch just one game in this round, this is the one to watch. Ireland, meaning Leinster, look set to name a full-strength side, which is a mark of respect for the Bulls. And they’ve earned that respect with the season they’ve had so far. Realistically, although the Bulls did win at the RDS Arena on their last visit, Leinster must be strong favourites. Most of their combinations were playing together in the winning of the Six Nations.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 10

Dragons v Zebre (Newport, Friday 21.35)

The significance of this game is that it’s about the wooden spoon. The Dragons currently sit last, but they are just three points behind Zebre, who are 14th, on the same number of points, 14, as the 15th-placed Sharks. So a Dragons win would see them leapfrog Zebre, and the Sharks too if the Durban team don’t win against Edinburgh.

Prediction: Dragons to win by 10

Benetton v Connacht (Treviso, Saturday 15.00)

This is close to being a knock-out game in terms of teams vying for top four and top eight positions. The loser will certainly be out of contention for a top-four spot, which they were both in the running for earlier in the season. And it would significantly hurt their quest for a top-eight position too. Benetton should have their Italian internationals back and that being so, they should win.

Prediction: Benetton to win by 8.

Hollywoodbets Sharks v Edinburgh (Durban, Saturday 15.00)

One of the ironies of this game is that it was arguably an unexpectedly big loss to Edinburgh on a wet day in the inaugural URC season two years ago that put the skids under Sean Everitt’s position as Sharks coach Sean Everitt. Yes, he was still around until the following season, when Cardiff did what Edinburgh did, also funnily enough in a wet weather game, to hasten his exit, but it was after that big home defeat to Edinburgh almost exactly two years ago that the questions around Everitt intensified. The former Sharks coach is back in Durban now, as coach of Edinburgh. He’s done enough with Edinburgh to confirm what many of us knew already, that he is a good coach and it was the system at the Sharks that was the obstacle, but he would nonetheless love to get one over his former team. But unless John Plumtree fiddles with his selection and doesn’t field the star players that helped his team win over Ulster, it won’t happen.

Prediction: Sharks to win by 13

Ospreys v Emirates Lions (Swansea, Saturday 17.05)

The Lions’ win in Galway last week has added extra significance to this clash for both teams. If the Lions win, they will go more than two wins ahead of the Ospreys, and also start creating a bit of a gap between themselves and the loser of the clash in Treviso between the ninth and 10th-placed teams. It would put the Lions, who have mostly home games to come after this, in the pound seats when it comes to their quest for a top-eight spot. Conversely, if they lose they are back in the bunfight. It will be quite an achievement for the Lions to beat both their opponents on a tour that some said was “Mission Impossible”, but if they bring the energy and passion, not to mention tempo, that they injected into their performance last week there is no reason they shouldn’t win.

Prediction: Lions to win by 7

DHL Stormers v Ulster (Cape Town, Saturday 19.15)

It’s going to be a weird feeling to see the Stormers playing against Steven Kitshoff rather than have him at the helm of their team. It would be amazing to find out what Kitshoff himself thinks of this homecoming to a stadium he got to know so well and adore. One thing is for certain though, Kitshoff is a professional and will be going all out to help his current teammates get the edge they so desperately need in what for the Belfast-based team has become a must-win. The Cape Town games between the Stormers and Ulster have been close and this one should be close again, but the Stormers’ form last week against Edinburgh left coach John Dobson with the kind of selection dilemmas most would envy - for instance, Warrick Gelant surely has to start at fullback given his recent form, but Damian Willemse was outstanding there last week. And then you have the loose-forwards - Ben-Jason Dixon or Hacjivah Dayimani for the No7 jersey. And if Willemse moves to centre, does Dobson continue with Wandesile Simelane at 13 or return Dan du Plessis to that position, or go for the other option in Suleiman Hartzenberg? My money says it will be Simelane or Hartzenberg, and that the Stormers will win.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 9

Scarlets v Glasgow Warriors (Llanelli, Saturday 21.35)

Glasgow will usurp the Bulls in second place if they win where Benetton faltered a week ago and the Bulls go down to Leinster. They should win against the Scarlets and in so doing, put more space between them and the teams outside of the top four.

Prediction: Warriors to win by 11.

Munster v Cardiff Rugby (Limerick, Saturday 21.35)

The champions have been a bit under the radar in the first part of the season but suddenly you look at the log and they are fourth, with a chance of putting some space between them and the fifth-placed Stormers if their fellow Irish team, Ulster, do the business in Cape Town, and they win against Cardiff. My money says they will get the last part right, but the Stormers will stay in touch.

Prediction: Munster to win by 14

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