REVIEW: SA teams hitting bullseye makes top-four domination possible

Three of the top-four teams on the final Vodacom United Rugby Championship log from South Africa, surely that’s impossible? Well, maybe not. In fact, if the next round goes anything like round 12, it could be a distinct possibility by the end of the Easter weekend.

Those South Africans hoping for a good representation by local teams in the knock-out stages could not have asked for a better weekend. The Hollywoodbets Sharks started the trend by doing what their local coastal rivals in particular would have wanted by beating Ulster. Then the DHL Stormers capitalised on what the Sharks had done for them by picking up full points against Edinburgh.

The Vodacom Bulls were sloppy but still got what everyone expected from their trip to Newport to play the Dragons - meaning a full house of five log points. But the local performance of the weekend, indeed the stand-out team performance of the entire round, was the Emirates Lions, who completely obliterated the fortress that Connacht had built around their home ground in Galway when it comes to South African opposition.

LIONS WERE BUSY BEES AROUND HONEY

The Lions were down to 14 men from the 16th minute because of one of those unfortunate tackle-height red cards that comes about at worst from clumsiness but is really just an accident. They’d started well, scoring a good early try, and had all the momentum up to the point where Asenathi Ntlabakanya was given his marching orders essentially because Conor Oliver ran into him.

But surely, given the Connacht habit of getting it together on their home ground, that would be the end of the Lions challenge? Think again. The loss of a player only appeared to galvanise the Lions more, and made them even more committed, intense and physical than they already were. The tempo of their game allied to the physicality of their defence had unsettled Connacht and it continued to do so as the Lions performed like busy bees around honey across the entire 80 minutes.

The Lions' win did not come out of the blue. There have been strong indications for a while now that the Lions’ plan to re-enact what worked for them between 2012 to 2016 in laying the platform for an era that saw them play three Super Rugby finals in a row is working for them. To put it simply, they have a strong youth focus aimed at building a team rather than buying one.

Of course, the attention of franchises that do want to buy success might undermine that plan. Vincent Tshituka, a Lions stalwart, was one of the stars of the Sharks' win over Ulster. His brother Emmanuel and flyhalf Jordan Hendrikse will be moving to Durban next season.

But that the Lions players are committed to the jersey and are coming together as a team in a similar way to how the Stormers did it two seasons ago was plain to see in Galway, and there’ve been plenty of hints of it before now.

LIONS NEED TO LOSE HOME INCONSISTENCY

For some bizarre reason, they sometimes misfire at home, and are often much more reliable if you want to put money on them away from Johannesburg.

A recent good example was the two Gauteng derbies against the Bulls. The Lions were desperately unlucky in the game in Pretoria, and should really have won. But when they got to host the Bulls a few weeks later, they just didn’t pitch for work.

Erasing that inconsistent use of the massive advantage they should have against overseas teams at altitude is the key to the hitherto impossible aforementioned dream of having three local teams finish in the top four and therefore host their first games in the URC Finals Series.

The Lions have one more overseas game, the one this week against the Ospreys in Swansea. It is a massive fixture for them as a win will put them in touching distance of the top four with mostly just a run of home games to come. Their only remaining away fixture is the last one, the derby against the Stormers in Cape Town.

If the Lions convert home-ground advantage, the DHL Stadium clash in the first weekend of June could be a play-off for a top-four spot. Or both teams could go into that weekend knowing they can clinch top four regardless of the result.

TOP TEAMS STILL COMING TO ALTITUDE 

Those who wonder how such a scenario can come about when, in addition to log leaders Leinster, the Glasgow Warriors and champions Munster are both in the top four and won this past weekend, need to remember something - all three of those teams come to South Africa.

Okay, depending on how they go against the Bulls in their massive top-of-the-table clash in Dublin on Friday night, we can probably accept Leinster will be in the top four. But the Warriors could be more vulnerable and will be coming to altitude to play both the Bulls and the Lions. While Glasgow are a good team, both those games have a massive degree of jeopardy about them.

Another team that has to come to Fortress Loftus is Munster, who also have to play the Lions at Emirates Airline Park. Again, their fate is in the Lions’ hands, play well in those games and they can seriously hurt the Glasgow and Munster challenges and mount a strong bid for a top-four spot. With a bit of help from the Bulls of course.

They are eighth at the moment, with three SA teams in the playoff and Investec Champions Cup qualification bracket for the first time, but the gap of three positions enjoyed on them by the fifth-placed Stormers is a misnomer. What is more relevant is that there is just one log point separating the teams.

If the Stormers beat Ulster at the weekend and the Lions complete their tour with a win over the Ospreys, both local sides will be in the top four or as near as dammit to it. The Stormers will be strongly favoured to finish in the top four if they win against Ulster as apart from the home clash with Leinster in mid-April, and maybe the Lions right at the end of the season, their remaining games are all games they should win.

They still have to tour but should be expected to beat the Dragons in Newport and the Lions showed in Galway two days ago that Connacht are beatable on their home ground, where the Stormers only lost by one point, and were unlucky to do so, on their last visit.

SHARKS SHOWED THEY CAN HELP TOO

So it is all positive for the South African challenge in the URC, and it is made even more so by the indication that the Sharks gave at the weekend that their coach John Plumtree was right when he hinted he just needed his full-strength pack available and his team would perform a lot better.

They did the Stormers in particular a favour at the weekend and they can do them another one by dealing with Edinburgh on Saturday. Edinburgh dropped from joint fourth to sixth when they failed to pick up even a losing bonus point against the Stormers, but they are still just one point behind the Stormers. It is when they are in SA that the overseas challenges need to be hurt. It happened to Ulster and Edinburgh in round 12, it needs to happen again in round 13.

If it does, the SA challenge will be flying when the competition returns after the break for the Champions Cup and EPCR Challenge Cup round of 16 fixtures in mid-April. It does though require the Lions to replicate their form of Galway on their home field against the three top four teams that will be visiting them in the next two months.

The Stormers should be okay as DHL Stadium is already a near impregnable fortress, as is Loftus for the Bulls, who could go top if they come through an interesting test against Leinster, likely to be an Ireland shadow team, next week.

VODACOM UNITED RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP RESULTS ROUND 12

Glasgow Warriors 17 Cardiff Rugby 13

Ospreys 17 Munster 27

Hollywoodbets Sharks 22 Ulster 12

Scarlets 16 Benetton 13

DHL Stormers 43 Edinburgh 21

Connacht 14 Emirates Lions 38

Dragons 10 Vodacom Bulls 31

Zebre 7 Leinster 31

ROUND 13 FIXTURES

Leinster v Vodacom Bulls (Friday, 9.35pm)

Dragons v Zebre (Friday, 9.35pm)