Vodacom United Rugby Championship title holders Glasgow Warriors had to do it the hard way last season by winning both their semifinal against Munster and the final against the Vodacom Bulls away from home.
Thanks to the brilliant coaching of Franco Smith and the growth that the Warriors have undergone since the former Springbok assistant took charge in Glasgow, they hit their target by producing when it mattered. However, they would not have needed to do it the hard way had it not been for their failure to win on their two-match South African tour.
They looked likely table-toppers when they arrived in the country at a relatively late stage of the league season. But losses to first the Bulls and then the Emirates Lions hurt their challenge and they ended up having to settle for a fourth-placed finish and what the late Bok World Cup-winning coach Kitch Christie might have referred to as the low road to the championship.
The coaches' #VURC record of the four South African franchises 🧠 pic.twitter.com/EOkjjbvfqe
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) October 17, 2024
Pertinent to what they face over the next two weekends, by not winning in South Africa, it provided a significant boost to the Bulls’ challenge. It was the Glasgow defeats on the highveld coupled with the two suffered by an under-strength Leinster team in Johannesburg and Cape Town to the Lions and the DHL Stormers respectively that enabled the Pretoria team to finish second and end up hosting the final at Loftus.
GETTING BY WITH HELP FROM FRIENDS
So it could be said the Lions helped the Bulls out twice and the Stormers once. Not of course that those were results driven by patriotism. As Bulls director of rugby Jake White would probably tell you, it’s the winning of the derby games that is the biggest determinant of your chances of going far in the competition. He would base that on the Stormers' experience of making the final two years in a row mostly based on their imperious form against fellow South African teams.
With the Hollywoodbets Sharks looking much stronger this year and having sorted out their cultural and contracting issues, the Bulls and the Stormers, the two dominant South African sides of the first three years of the URC, have a more difficult passage through the derby phase of the competition. The Sharks, and arguably the Lions too, are an extra challenger for the top-four position.
But given that it’s travelling to Europe that is the most difficult challenge in the playoff stage, there’d be good reason to believe the Bulls could profit as much as the Sharks and the Stormers if the two coastal teams can knock over both the most recent champions, Glasgow and Munster, in their games over the next two weekends.
ABSORBING SA DOUBLE HEADER
The Warriors are in Durban on Saturday and Munster are in Cape Town in back-to-back games that make for an absorbing double header - with the Emirates Lions starting the Saturday fare when they face a golden opportunity of making it four out of four when they play Zebre in Parma.
🌧️ "It looks like I'm doing a weather forecast but it is about to rain tries!"#VURC couch coach Gerrie is excited to see the Springboks back with their franchises and you should be too!
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) October 16, 2024
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It is hard to say which of the two local games should be considered the biggest. Both teams need to win after coming unstuck last weekend, both need to make a big statement.
The Stormers/Munster game might marginally edge it in the sense that it is a repeat of the 2022/2023 final, but it is arguably the Sharks, with all their big Boks back, who have the better chance of winning. The Stormers don’t have their Boks back and even if they did there’d only be two of them as the others are all injured.
The DHL Stormers are yet to beat Munster in the #VURC 👀
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) October 17, 2024
Will things change on Saturday in Cape Town? pic.twitter.com/uHalKhPiZE
The Bulls start the South African interest in round five by playing Scarlets in Llanelli. If they play like they did against the Ospreys last week, they should win. They weren’t so flush in the second half in Swansea, but there was a well-publicised reason for that and it is unlikely the Bulls’ discipline will be as poor again. Or should we really be saying it is unlikely the refereeing will be as poor again?
Round 5 Vodacom United Rugby Championship previews and predictions
Ulster v Ospreys (Belfast, Friday 8:35pm)
Ulster got back on the bike last week after their poor South African tour, which significantly hurt their challenge, when they beat Connacht. But it was a close game that was influenced by a Connacht red card. The Ospreys were outplayed in the first half by the Bulls but made a better fist of it in the second, thanks to the referee as much as anything else. At home, Ulster should win.
Prediction: Ulster to win by 10
Scarlets v Vodacom Bulls (Llanelli, Friday 8:35pm)
Jake White has changed up his Bulls team and if it is successful against Scarlets it will underline the strides that they have made in terms of building depth. There are some interesting selections, not the least of them being Jan-Hendrik Wessels appearing in the loosehead prop position where he made a start for the Boks in Australia. The team is captained by Akker van der Merwe in the absence of regular skipper Ruan Nortje, who along with Willie le Roux and Gerhard Steenekamp has returned home as part of the Bok resting protocols. Canan Moodie cut the Ospreys line impressively last week and he and Kurt-Lee Arendse will be big threats again. The Scarlets shocked Cardiff in round 4 and are not to be trifled with.
Prediction: Vodacom Bulls to win by 7
Zebre v Emirates Lions (Parma, Saturday 1:30pm)
The Lions are returning to the scene of their first win in this competition, which just happened to be the first game ever played in the URC in its current guise back in 2021. There should be concerns that the Lions’ commitment to the Currie Cup will come back to bite them later, but it shouldn’t happen this week against a Zebre team that was comprehensively outplayed by the Stormers two weeks ago. The Lions had to dig deep to win against the Dragons a week ago but they have now been on tour for a week longer and will be properly acclimatised and ready for the Zebre challenge.
Prediction: Emirates Lions to win by 8
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Glasgow Warriors (Durban, Saturday 15:45pm)
Coach John Plumtree predictably rang the changes, bringing most of his phalanx of top Springboks back into the starting team for this game against the champions. That includes Bok skipper Siya Kolisi, who will play as a foot soldier while Eben Etzebeth leads. The Sharks were abjectly disappointing in Treviso last week and, to be brutally honest, they struggled on tour after their great first half in the opening game against Connacht, so this is an opportunity to put the record straight and make a statement. The Sharks comfortably beat Glasgow the last time they played them in Durban at full strength and they should do so again. The one caveat is that rain is predicted for match day, so it might not be one of those days we will see the flash of the likes of Lukhanyo Am and Aphelele Fassi, two of the returning Boks. But given Glasgow like to play a tempo game, the big Sharks forwards might ensure an advantage for the hosts if they play the conditions.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 8
DHL Stormers v Munster (Cape Town, Saturday 6pm)
There was some much-justified criticism of the role that the referee played in consigning the Stormers to defeat in Edinburgh last Saturday night, but the Stormers have it right when they say they should have been bigger than that. Being done by the ref is becoming a bit of a habit for the Stormers, who could justifiably argue the calls went against them in both games they lost. But the fact of the matter is that the Stormers lost badly at The Hive and it justifies the contention that the aura they built up over the first two seasons of the URC, where they hosted both finals, is slipping. They need to arrest that against a Munster team that has the wood over them - home and away. However, the Stormers pack monstered Munster but just didn’t get their reward the last time these teams played, which was in Limerick last November, and the memory of that suggests that if they play the right game, and are tighter than they were in Edinburgh, they might just break the Munster hoodoo. I’d be more confident about that though if Manie Libbok was playing. The team will only be announced later on Friday, but going into a game like this with Damian Willemse as the only place-kicker seems risky. Jurie Matthee might be in contention for a recall to the No 10.
Prediction: Stormers to edge it.
Edinburgh v Cardiff Rugby (Edinburgh, Saturday 6:15pm)
Edinburgh recovered well from their poor tour of South Africa, and in particular their mauling by the Lions in Johannesburg, by thumping the Stormers. They showed in that game that they are a very different proposition at home to what they are away. Cardiff have floundered a bit after starting with big expectations. It’s hard to see beyond a comfortable Edinburgh win.
Prediction: Edinburgh to win by 12
Dragons v Benetton (Newport, Saturday 8:35pm)
Benetton did what Edinburgh did later in the evening by bouncing back last Saturday, with their comprehensive win over the Sharks in Treviso being their first win of the season. They were good enough in that game to suggest that they can go to Newport, where the Dragons have lost two close games to South African teams in consecutive weeks, and win. Funnily enough, we might not say that if it were not for the log position. If Benetton were better off on the log, we might expect complacency and a possible defeat. But with just one win in four starts on their record, Benetton can’t slip up, and they should know it.
Prediction: Benetton to win by 7
Connacht v Leinster (Galway, Saturday 8:35pm)
This is the game to rival the two in South Africa for the match of the URC weekend. Connacht have been highly competitive when they’ve lost this season, and some might argue have been a bit unlucky in games against Munster and Ulster. But beating Leinster, who if they want to be can be almost a facsimile of the Ireland side, is a tough proposition. Even at The Sportsground in Galway, which is a venue notorious for visiting teams as a burier of dreams.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 8 to 12