If the current torrential rain continues as it has in Cape Town this week, the weather will ultimately favour the DHL Stormers in their epic Vodacom United Rugby Championship final against the Vodacom Bulls on Saturday.
Former Springbok flyhalf and SuperSport pundit Joel Stransky believes the weather conditions will make a massive difference, and if it is wet and slippery, it is likely to mean more scrums, where the Stormers have two World Cup-winning Springboks.
The scrum was also the Bulls' Achilles heel in the opening rounds of the competition, but they have managed to stabilise the scrum despite being at one time the most penalised team in the competition.
“I do think it will suit the Stormers more. They have a big front row and a strong bench. As much as we think as backline players we win or lose the game, we don’t - it is won and lost up front. I think. I say this with a bit of a caveat, but scrummaging has become such a massive part of the modern game,” Stransky explained on a URC conference call on Tuesday.
“If you think if it is wet and miserable, you think there will be more errors, and you would fancy the likes of Steven Kitshoff and Frans Malherbe will have a dominant effect at scrum time. If it is looser, you will have a look at the likes of Marcell Coetzee, Elrigh Louw and Arno Botha - the bigger and more powerful stack of loose forwards that can be involved in the ball carrying.
“The Stormers on the other hand don’t have that ball-carrying ability spread across the field. They’ve got Evan Roos, who is outstanding, but Hacjivah Dayimani comes with something different, not just the game for the wet weather conditions. Deon Fourie is a proper jackler.
“If it is wet and close you would think the tight phase would be a big thing and then you would have to look at the Stormers.”
Stransky said the biggest surprise of the semifinals for him was that the Bulls managed to dethrone Leinster in Dublin.
“I would guess it was a bit of a surprise when the Bulls won. If anyone saw anyone slipping up, for me it would have been the Stormers, and Ulster had the ability to beat them but the Stormers came back at the end and won it at the death. It has been the story of the Stormers' season, they have this uncanny ability to win it late.
“None of our teams started well, but they finished well and that culminated in the two teams in the final.”
The differences between the two teams, in his opinion, are quite stark, and Stransky ironically believes the Bulls will have to shift the ball more to move the Stormers around - normally an insight that is given against the Bulls by other teams.
“They are two teams that are quite different in their make-up. I think the Stormers have not just got it quite going for 80 minutes, they seem to have these lapses. I thought they should have beaten Edinburgh much more comfortably than they did in the quarterfinal.
“I also thought they were lucky to escape against Ulster twice this season, which is fortunate. But sometimes to get to a final you need a bit of luck.
“The Bulls, on the other hand, have no big names, no real stars that stand up and shine, but the sum of their parts is massive. They have a pack of forwards that at the start of this season we wondered about their ability to scrum, we wondered about their ability to dog it out and provide that physical, confrontation game that the Bulls are famous for.
“But they found a way, they play an exciting game of rugby where they don’t necessarily use that pack of forwards in the traditions of Bulls rugby. They have some players on the outside who can read the game and can finish.”
Stransky said it would be hard to bet against the Bulls, but this is a final that is too close to predict.
“I think the one downside is that there is torrential rain in Cape Town at the moment and hopefully that doesn’t put a damper on the game on Saturday and hopefully by then it has dried out and the rain has gone. But if it is clear I think we will see a really great game of rugby - the Bulls will have to move the ball around to beat the Stormers.
“The Stormers have a big pack of forwards, they have a strong midfield. Both teams have a strong midfield that control the game well, so it will be close.
“To have to predict, you’d be stupid to bet against the Bulls, because they’ve gone and beaten Leinster away, but it is hard to not pick the home side - the Stormers are just laden with talent and they have a team that rises to the big occasion.”