Why making the Stormers favourites at Loftus is a joke

You could almost see DHL Stormers defence coach Norman Laker start with surprise when the question was asked. It wasn’t so much the question that was asked in the online press conference, but the statement that went with it: “Everyone is expecting the Stormers to win”.

If that is the case ahead of Saturday’s big north/south Vodacom United Rugby Championship derby at Loftus against the Vodacom Bulls, it already reckons without some key facts. Such as that the Stormers are missing far more key players to Springbok resting protocols and injuries than the Bulls are. And Stormers coach John Dobson has hinted he may rest a few more. The Bulls do have a lot more to play for.

But it wouldn’t have been that consideration that would have made Laker start. The Stormers have been successful this season at building their depth, and the form of the fringe players when they get an opportunity may be what accounts for the Cape team’s second position overall on the URC log and first in the South African Shield/conference.

It is why those of us who half expected the Stormers to struggle with the mantle of being champions, and with it the extra commitment to the Heineken Champions Cup, have been proved wrong. They’re making a good fist of their season as URC champions. Whatever happens from here, they’ve well and truly shaken off any perception of them as being a small team.

WINNING WILL REQUIRE THEM PLAYING OUT OF THEIR SKINS

If they play out of their skins, the Stormers can win at Loftus. But here’s the thing, they will have to play out of their skins. To win in Pretoria will require them to do something that few have done at the Bulls’ home ground since Jake White took over as Bulls director of rugby in early 2020.

In fact, it is only themselves (once) and the Sharks (once) who have been on the winning side on the Bulls’ home ground in that period. The Stormers managed it on 22 January last year. That just happened to be the 143rd anniversary of the battle at Rorkes Drift, where a small garrison of British soldiers and hospital patients fought off a mighty army and the bravery was rewarded with a record number of Victoria Crosses.

That Stormers win was so unexpected back then and so rare that you might have expected Dobson to give his players medals. It was a mighty achievement and it was in fact the first defeat for White at his team’s home ground. Up to that point the Bulls were nigh invincible at home, and were annihilating opponents in a manner similar to the way the British forces were routed on that same aforementioned 22 January 1879, the day of the Rorkes Drift battle, 13 kilometres away at Isandhlwana.

BULLS UNBEATEN AT LOFTUS SINCE THIS WEEK LAST YEAR

Some three weeks later the Cell C Sharks arrived in Pretoria, and on a day when the Bulls were hamstrung by Morne Steyn being red carded in first 10 minutes, they managed to follow up what the Stormers had done. But since then, despite the perception that the Bulls have at times struggled, there hasn’t been another win for a visiting team at Loftus. We’re talking a period of a year to the week.

No overseas team has won at Loftus since the start of the URC era, and when the Bulls went into the 2021 Currie Cup final against the Sharks, they had won 21 games consecutively in Pretoria. They won that domestic decider, so make that 22 games unbeaten. And they have re-established that stranglehold at home over the past year.

Make no mistake, teams have come close. The Sharks only got knocked out of the URC last season by a last-gasp Chris Smith drop-goal after a very even quarterfinal. Lyon came close in a Heineken Champions Cup game in December, but that was against a second string Bulls team. And anyway opposition teams coming close but being unable to light the cigar only further emphasises that the Bulls at Loftus have a winning habit.

The Stormers have grown a lot since 22 January 2022. They are a team in that happy, confident space that comes with a good culture and what has now developed into a winning culture. That is also part of the secret as to why fringe players are able to so seamlessly fit in when it is needed. The Bulls will know about that, for it happened when the likes of Fourie du Preez, Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha were absent during their years of Super Rugby dominance.

But this week the Stormers are going to a venue where the hosts have a record that is as impressive as their own home record at DHL Stadium - 20 consecutive wins since December 2021.

HARDLY PLAYED AT HOME RECENTLY

They’ve beaten the Bulls four times consecutively, including that Loftus win, and perhaps that’s why some make them favourites. It is also true that the Bulls haven’t been in great form just recently. But here’s another fact - they’ve hardly played at home since November. There were two Heineken Cup games, one of them a notable win over Exeter Chiefs that perhaps more of a fuss should have been made of, but otherwise nothing.

It is a cliche to say that the Bulls are a different animal at home but nonetheless it is true. The Stormers have grown, and while White made a lot after his last defeat to the Stormers, at DHL Stadium two days before Christmas 2022, of the fact that he enjoyed dominance initially, that is precisely the point - that the Stormers are now winning against the Bulls more often than losing is a measure of their growth. They are going to have to be very good though to win in Pretoria and no ways should they be seen as favourites.