There’s a distortion to the Vodacom United Rugby Championship log that will be there until the South African teams have made up the opening round games that were postponed until February or March because of the clash with the Carling Currie Cup final.
While the Emirates Lions are currently the top local team in sixth place, they are effectively the only side other than top-placed Leinster who have picked up full points from all their games so far.
The difference being that Leinster have played three games, and the Lions two. And ditto the Vodacom Bulls, who are one position and one point behind their Gauteng rivals in seventh, while the Hollywoodbets Sharks, because they picked up a losing bonus point in their first game whereas the DHL Stormers didn’t, are in eighth to the Cape team’s 12th.
Round 4 coming in strong 💪
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We’ve got you covered all weekend… Friday to Sunday 💥@Vodacom #URC pic.twitter.com/kKqRkGAaD4
It is way too early in the competition to be concerned about log position, but this weekend’s third round is - well for the South African teams it is - nonetheless an important one as it represents a critical junction in the opening block of five matches (six for the overseas teams) before the international break in November.
The Lions have made a rollicking start, but Sunday’s clash with the Dragons in Newport is their first game overseas. It is the away games, and not the matches that they play on their home ground in Johannesburg with the odds stacked in their favour, that will determine their chances of reaching their stated ambition of making the top four, which will secure them home ground advantage in the first play-off game.
Shoutout to ‘Gaz’ who had this week’s Fantasy Team of the Week 👑
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👔 Team Manager: Gareth Probert
🏉 Team Name: GazProbert15
🔢 Total Points: 284pts
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Given they haven’t made the top eight in any of the three previous editions of the competition, it would appear the Lions’ ambition is a lofty one - but is it? Last season there was only a win or two between their ending position just out of the top eight and the upper reaches of the log.
POSSIBLE DEFINING ROUND OF FIRST PHASE
That’s how close it was and why, while it is only the third week of competition, this is a crucial round for the South African teams - they all face potentially defining fixtures for this phase of the competition. The Lions need to confirm their home form wasn’t a mirage, the Bulls should be aiming for top spot overall and that brings its own pressure, while the Stormers need to confirm by beating Edinburgh that they will not be chasing the game early like they were last season.
The Sharks came close to dropping a second successive game last week and with them and the Stormers hosting the two most recent winners of the URC after this final tour game, they will be desperate to make the improvements needed to ensure they return to Durban with two wins in three starts.
For both the coastal teams that synopsis from their three tour games will be necessary for their confidence as they prepare to host in the Sharks’ case the Glasgow Warriors first and then Munster, and for the Stormers those two teams in reverse order.
After having two bankers in the first two rounds in the form of the games played in each weekend on the highveld, there’s a much more challenging proposition facing the South African teams.
All four games are away from home and they are against teams that either have the extra motivation of needing to bounce back and launch rescue acts after poor starts, meaning Edinburgh and Benetton, or have been troublesome to South African teams over the past fortnight, meaning the Ospreys and the Dragons.
All four are games they could conceivably lose, but given the momentum picked up last week, there is reason for South Africans to feel positive - there’s no reason why we shouldn’t see another full house of wins like last week. And if that mission is accomplished, all four will be in a satisfying position - regardless of what the log might indicate.
Weekend Vodacom United Rugby Championship previews and predictions
Glasgow Warriors v Zebre (Glasgow, Friday 8:35pm)
The Warriors started poorly with an opening defeat to Ulster but since then they’ve got back on the horse. First they made easy work of Benetton in Glasgow, and then they travelled to Cardiff and picked up another full house of log points in a high-scoring game. Zebre shocked Munster two weeks ago but the Stormers brought them back to earth by effectively shutting them out in Parma. Coach Franco Smith will have noted how the Stormers did it, although at The Scotstoun the Warriors are likely to combine a lot of flash with the clinical aspects of their game. With a tough two-match tour of South Africa to follow, Glasgow need a good win, and they will get it.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 15 or more.
Cardiff Rugby v Scarlets (Cardiff, Saturday 4pm)
The Scarlets pushed Connacht all the way last week in Llanelli and will head to the Welsh capital feeling energised despite being disappointed at losing by a solitary point. They’ve won once in three games, but it could so easily have been two wins. Cardiff, despite last week’s loss in a high-scoring game against the Warriors, have made a strong start to their campaign, and after two wins they lie fifth on the log. At home, they must be strong favourites.
Prediction: Cardiff to win by 8
Benetton v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Treviso, Saturday 4pm)
Coach John Plumtree was rightly unimpressed with the performance produced by his team last week. The Sharks shouldn’t be squeaking to narrow wins against the likes of the Dragons, not even away from home with their Boks absent. But there is context, and perhaps an element of fatigue that crept in after a much tougher start to the season than a team should be put through because of the timing of the Currie Cup playoff stages. And it is also true that although the Sharks were behind by 17 at one point, they still won the game in Newport. That’s something they are making a habit of. They may need to dig deep again against Benetton, who have made a poor start to a season where much is expected of them.
Prediction: Sharks to win another close one.
Edinburgh v DHL Stormers (Edinburgh, Saturday 6:15pm)
The Stormers were very impressive with the way they handled the challenge posed by a physical Zebre team that had had its confidence boosted by a shock win over Munster the week before. The forwards effectively shut Zebre out of the game, as did their defensive system, with defence coach Norman Laker in an understandably ebullient mood during a teleconference with the media this week. It goes without saying that Edinburgh will be a lot tougher, and it would also be folly to read too much into Edinburgh’s two defeats in South Africa. Both games were on the highveld, the second one was at lunchtime, hardly the time of day that is conducive to getting the best out of a visiting northern hemisphere side at altitude. It would be more apt to take the Edinburgh home game against Leinster that kicked off their season as a measuring stick of what Sean Everitt’s men can do. They lost that by two points. The Stormers drew with Edinburgh the last time they were in that neck of the woods and it should be that close again.
Prediction: Stormers to win by less than 7.
Leinster v Munster (Dublin, Saturday 6:45pm)
Leinster got away with one when they snuck home against Edinburgh in the opening round, but subsequent to that they’ve won comfortably. It is debatable though that you can measure their most recent opponents, Benetton, against Munster, and the rivalry between these two teams is renowned. This should be the game of the weekend, but don’t bet against Leinster this season, particularly not when they are playing at home, and regardless of who their opponents are.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 10
Ospreys v Vodacom Bulls (Swansea, Saturday 8:35pm)
The Ospreys shocked the Stormers in Bridgend two weeks ago, although shocked shouldn’t necessarily be the word used there. The Ospreys haven’t lost to the Stormers in their last three games (two wins for them and one draw). There was context though, such as some rather dubious refereeing of the set scrums, and the fact the Stormers were playing their first competitive game against a team that had already played one league game. That league game though was a loss to the Dragons, and last week they weren’t at the races against Munster. So the Bulls, who were in imperious form in outplaying Ulster last week, should win.
Prediction: Bulls to win by at least 10
Ulster v Connacht (Belfast, Saturday 9pm)
So far the Irish derbies have been very closely fought, and this one should be no different. Connacht snuck home by just one point against Scarlets last week and won the game late by coming back from a 20-point deficit against the Sharks before that. In round one they only just lost to Munster. Ulster started the season sublimely by knocking over the Warriors, but were effectively blown away in their two altitude games in South Africa. Perhaps their last game at home, the win over Munster, is a better measure of what to expect from Ulster than those two games, but it will be close. And a difficult game to predict. I’m going for home-ground advantage but wouldn’t bet anything I truly value on the result of this game.
Prediction: Ulster to win by less than 5
Dragons v Emirates Lions (Newport, Sunday 3:30pm)
The Emirates Lions have got off to a flying start, but now comes a much tougher phase of their season. In fact, it is going to be tough for a sustained period, for the Lions do not see their home ground of Emirates Airline Park in the URC again until January. That means wins on the road are a non-negotiable, particularly if they are serious about their stated lofty aim of making it into the top four. The Lions have actually been good on the road in the past though, and although the Dragons pushed the Sharks all the way last week, the Johannesburg team might just have enough momentum to get over the line again. It won’t be by much, not if the Dragons replicate the fighting spirit of a week ago.
Prediction: Lions to win by less than 7