There’s that old saying that revolves around keeping up with the Joneses, or the neighbours, and it applies to the Hollywoodbets Sharks and the 10Bet Lions as the Vodacom United Rugby Championship heads into it’s fourth round.
Right now there are four South African teams in the top seven on the log.
It’s way too early to get excited about that, but the signs are promising if we are looking at the possibility of this being the first edition of the competition where we get four local teams into the top eight that qualifies you for the playoffs and, if a URC team doesn’t win the EPCR Challenge Cup, into the Investec Champions Cup.
But a lot could depend on how two potentially tough away games before the November international break goes for the Sharks and Lions respectively. They say it is winning the home games that is the imperative if you want to do well in the URC, but you have to pick up some away wins too.
In the last round of the URC two derbies were played that appeared to indicate a potential chasm between the two currently better placed SA teams, the Vodacom Bulls and the DHL Stormers. Both games against the Lions and Sharks respectively were won with something to spare. Admittedly, both winners were playing at home, but the margin of victory was wide.
The Sharks were excellent in beating Lyon in the Challenge Cup last week, but they are going to need to back up against Cardiff on the tricky 4G surface at Cardiff Arms Park, while the Lions have an equally tricky Friday night game in Edinburgh to negotiate. Edinburgh are top of the log currently.
By contrast, the Stormers and Bulls are at home this week and next week and should be favoured to win their two games - the Stormers host Scarlets this week and Ulster after that, for the Bulls that order is reversed.
The big game in this round of the URC outside of the SA interest is the one in Dublin featuring Leinster against Munster. There’s never any love lost in this Irish derby, it’s the Irish equivalent of the Stormers versus Bulls, and should be watched if you have the chance.
Vodacom United Rugby Championship fourth round
Cardiff Rugby v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Cardiff, Friday 8:45pm)
The Sharks arguably produced one of their biggest statement performances of recent times when they won in Lyon last week, but that was in the EPCR Challenge Cup. The last time they played a URC game they got outplayed by the Stormers, and while they have two wins in three starts in that competition, playing Cardiff in Cardiff is a big moment for them in terms of them showing that they can back up good performances in successive weeks.
Cardiff have won nine of their last 10 URC games and that is a record that deserves respect. However, the Sharks have welcomed back a clutch of Springboks to their match day 23 and they do appear to be on an upward trend in their performance graph and when it comes to aspects like team culture and playing identity.
This isn’t a game you should bet your house on but the Sharks are giving the impression now that they can be trusted more by their fans than was the case before.
Prediction: Sharks to win by 7 or less
Connacht v Zebre (Galway, Friday 8:45pm)
Connacht are riding the crest of a wave after their good Champions Cup win over Saracens last week plus they are playing at home. They have only one win from three games so far in this competition, but they should be way too good for Zebre.
Prediction: Connacht to win by more than 15
Edinburgh v 10Bet Lions (Edinburgh, Friday 8:45pm)
After their emotion driven performance last week when they were reeling after the sudden death of their teammate Hyron Andrews, it is going to be interesting to see how the Lions adapt to the challenge mounted by an Edinburgh team that is currently occupying the rare stratosphere for them of being top of the log.
Francke Horn returns to captain the side after missing the clash with La Rochelle with an ankle niggle.
Coach Ivan van Rooyen has reshuffled his back row for the game, with Batho Hlekani returning to the side at blindside flank in place of the injured Siba Qoma, while Sikhumbuzo Notshe plays ahead of Siba Mahashe at openside flank.
There is only one change at the back for the Lions, with Springbok Morne van den Berg displacing Nico Steyn at scrumhalf. The Lions claim not to be as bothered by some other local teams about the type of 4G pitch they will encounter at The Hive but Edinburgh’s good recent form will make them difficult to knock over at home.
Prediction: Edinburgh to win by 7
Vodacom Bulls v Ulster (Pretoria, Saturday 1:45pm)
The Bulls have been racking up the 50s in recent weeks, with the Lions in the URC and then Stade Francais in the Champions Cup being their victims. But while the big win over the Lions was an excellent performance, last week’s win was less easy to decipher given that the French team came to South Africa under-strength.
Some bookies are giving the Bulls a 17 point start and it might not be too far off but that optimiim for Bulls fans should be tempered by the knowledge that Ulster have brought back all their international players for this game.
With a record that reads one win and two draws, Ulster desperately need to win, and their selection, with former Stormers star Juarno Augustus as one of the stars on their books, endorses the feeling that this is the game the visitors are targeting on their two match tour.
They play the Stormers the following week in Cape Town and given that it is just a week before the start of the northern hemisphere leg of the Nations Championship, that might be a game they go understrength in.
The Bulls have selected a strong side but a completely changed pack. The backs are unchanged.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 12
DHL Stormers v Scarlets (Cape Town, Saturday 4pm)
The Stormers have selected for this game with half an eye on the future and half an eye on the immediate objective of ending this phase of the URC in a prime position on the log as the teams head into the international break.
Markus Muller, the sensational youngster around whom there is so much expectation, starts for the Stormers for the first time, as does Haashim Pead, the scrumhalf who was recently recruited from the Lions.
The team is captained by Paul de Villiers, who apart from being a current Bok is also one of three players in the team who has been a captain of the Junior Boks - the others being Riley Norton and Zachary Porthen.
Another recent Junior Bok playing against the Scarlets is prop Olly Reid, who will play off the bench. The Stormers have a good record against the Scarlets and whitewashed them on their own field in Llanelli last year. It might not be a whitewash, but the Stormers should win comfortably.
Prediction: Stormers to win by more than 20
Benetton v Glasgow Warriors (Treviso, Saturday 4pm)
It has been a disastrous start to the new season for Benetton, who find themselves
second last on the log. Of course, it is way too early to start making pronouncements, but the form of the Italian team is such that you’d struggle to find someone prepared to go with a Benetton win against a Glasgow side that is hitting form under the coaching of Franco Smith.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by 9
Leinster v Munster (Dublin, Saturday 7pm)
The interesting aspect of the Leinster team is that they are going in with their Irish international hooker Dan Sheehan as a No8. Leinster’s quest for vengeance after a derby defeat to Munster at Croke Park last season is writ large in Leo Cullen’s team for this Saturday’s URC rematch at Aviva Stadium with the head coach naming an all-Irish international XV, including a first start at No.8 for captain Dan Sheehan.
Sheehan is of course normally a hooker. Last year Munster shocked Leinster by winning the derby played at this stage of the season at a canter and Leo Cullen’s selection suggests he and his team have a thirst for revenge.
Munster won their Champions Cup fixture last week and also beat the Bulls and might prove difficult opponents initially but the smart money should be on Leinster, with their clear intent in this game, pulling through with a bit to spare.
Prediction: Leinster to win by 15 to 20
Ospreys v Dragons (Swansea, Saturday 8pm)
The Ospreys have won just once this season but they also have a draw on their record, which accounts for their current position within the top eight, with nine points from three games. The Ospreys were outplayed by the Sharks and Lions when they visited South Africa but they do have home ground advantage in this game.
Prediction: Ospreys to win by 7