With the Hollywoodbets Sharks understood to have taken an understrength squad to Manchester and the DHL Stormers not at full muster either it is the Vodacom Bulls who can be considered the nearest there is to a local banker in this weekend’s third round of the Investec Champions Cup.
It is hard to understand why the Sharks have taken pretty much the same squad that was well beaten in Toulouse at the start of the competition for what could be a crucial game for them in their quest for a place in the round of 16. When they went under-strength to Toulouse it was understandable because they were playing Saracens at home just six days later.
There is a proper seven day turnaround between games this time around and their next opponents, Clermont-Auvergne, are playing at home in France on the same day as they are playing in Manchester.
The French teams are also notorious for deciding at this stage of the competition whether they are taking it seriously or not, and with no points and a points differential of minus-58, it is hard to imagine that Clermont will head to Hollywoodbets Kings Park next week anywhere near full strength.
So why not go all out for this game in a quest to secure a home round of 16 game, which could be the prize if the Sharks win their remaining two games, rather than another irritating away trip at a stage of the season when the battle for position in the Vodacom URC could well be heating up?
KZN SHARKS WOULD HAVE BEEN FAVOURED AT FULL STRENGTH
The Sharks team hasn’t officially been announced yet and maybe coach JP Pietersen will have an explanation, but considering Sale are only seventh in the Premiership currently, this could have been an opportunity for the Sharks if they’d gone in full strength.
Maybe they believe they can still win, and certainly the cheeky social media chirps from the Sharks’ owner Marco Masotti this week about the “Sale Tuna” suggests he believes the under-strength side can win, assuming he does know in advance what squad has been taken to England.
But with an extended break beckoning in February, and the Sharks desperate for some winning momentum, surely this was a time to do what the Bulls are doing by going all in.
Bulls coach Johan Ackermann announced that intention after his team’s narrow loss to the Stormers in Cape Town and it is a godsend for those South Africans who’d like to see the local teams put up some kind of show in the Champions Cup to indicate they are taking it seriously. The Bulls have just a solitary point so far and are last in their group but two wins could see them go through.
MID-AFTERNOON ALTITUDE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE FOR VISITORS
Why they should be seen as a banker is for similar though opposite reasons to why we can’t be as certain about the chances of the two coastal teams. First up is the travel that Bristol Bears have to get through, with the Bulls waiting for them at home, and the second is the massive contrast in the weather conditions between South Africa and England right now.
While it is bitterly cold north of the equator and there is a storm with a name to contend with, something which may yet throw some of the games this weekend into doubt, Bristol face a mid-afternoon kick-off at altitude in the middle of summer. Let’s put it this way, if the Bulls don’t win it with their full strength team then they are in much bigger trouble than might appear to be the case on the surface.
The Stormers aren’t in any trouble and have nothing to lose in their game against Harlequins in London. It will be a win for them if they pick up a losing bonus point at the Twickenham Stoop, but their coach John Dobson believes he has developed enough depth to challenge for a win with what is likely to be a mix and match team.
Harlequins are in the midst of a crisis so they will need all the help they can get from the elements in a game that would be easier to call if we knew what team the Stormers were going to field. Unfortunately we don’t.
TWO REPEATS OF PREVIOUS FINALS
The early phases of the Champions Cup are often maligned for lacking jeopardy and big games but that is not the case this weekend. For instance after their shock defeat to Glasgow Warriors last time out, Toulouse face pressure that before the competition started would have been considered unlikely when they travel to Saracens for Sunday’s late game.
And the middle game on Sunday - it starts with the Harlequins/Stormers - between Bordeaux-Begles and Northampton Saints is a repeat of last year’s final. Talking of finals, La Rochelle’s visit to Dublin in a repeat of the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 finals, and with La Rochelle’s coach Ronan O’Gara having no love for Leinster after his years of playing against them for Munster it could be a spicy affair too.
Glasgow, now second on the URC log, will be looking to clinch a home round of 16 game and good knock-out seeding when they travel to Clermont while it is going to be interesting to see how Scarlets go against Pau given that Pau appear to be focusing on the Top 14 this year. This game has an impact on the Bulls’ chances as Scarlets are their main rivals for the top four Pool finish that will secure an advance to the knock-outs.
PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS
South African teams’ weekend Investec Champions Cup games
Vodacom Bulls v Bristol Bears (Pretoria, Saturday 3pm)
The Bulls made a massive improvement to their defensive effort in last week’s game against the Stormers and need to prove in this game that wasn’t a mirage created by the extra leg they grow when they face their fiercest rivals.
We don’t know who Bristol are bringing with them but the possible clash between Wilco Louw and Ellis Genge in the scrums is worth the price of an admission ticket. At home in a mid-afternoon game the Bulls should really have too much for the English team even though they are doing well in both the Premiership and the Champions Cup currently.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 10 or more.
Sale Sharks v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Manchester, Saturday 7:30pm)
Given that it is understood the Sharks are going in understrength for this game, there is some irony to the chirping done by Marco Masotti on social media this week. Perhaps he was trying to motivate the young team, but it is just as likely to motivate opponents who might otherwise have approached this game like it was just another day at the office.
Sale are seventh in their league and would have been beatable by a full strength Sharks team but now it is far from certain and the hosts have to start as favourites. Particularly if the weather is going to play a role. On the plus side for the Sharks is the rousing statement they would make in favour of their often maligned depth if they did win.
Prediction: Sale to win by 10
Harlequins v DHL Stormers (London, Sunday 3pm)
The Harlequins are in the throes of a crisis so that is sure to make them more desperate and determined, something the Stormers should be used to after what they faced when they played a Bulls team that arrived in Cape Town last weekend off five consecutive defeats.
We understand from what coach John Dobson said after that game that Damian Willemse and Warrick Gelant are likely to play, and there is plenty of depth at forward for the Stormers right now. But it is hard to make a call with any certainty without having seen the team so this isn’t a game you should bet your house on.
Prediction: Stormers to scrape it.
THE OTHER GAMES
Castres v Bath (Castres, Friday 10pm)
Edinburgh v Gloucester (Edinburgh, Friday 10pm)
Clermont v Glasgow Warriors (Clermont, Saturday 5:15pm)
Leinster v La Rochelle (Dublin, Saturday 7:30pm)
Scarlets v Pau (Llanelli, Saturday 10pm)
Leicester Tigers v Bayonne (Leicester, Saturday 10pm)
Toulon v Munster (Toulon, Sunday 3pm)
Bordeaux Bègles v Northampton Saints (Bordeaux, Sunday 5:15pm)
Saracens v Toulouse (London, Sunday 7:30pm)