It may be overstating the obvious, but the way the Springboks react to their own failures in the 38-22 shock loss to the Wallabies at Ellis Park will not only determine their Castle Lager Rugby Championship campaign, but also quite possibly their World Cup draw at the end of the year.
The Boks have lost their ranking as No 1 in the world and are now three behind Ireland and New Zealand. While we may argue about the way the rankings are done and what they really mean, the only important point is that they determine the World Cup draw at the end of the year.
On Saturday, what made the loss so incomprehensible for many South Africans is not the result. Australia have threatened to explode in the Lions series and were probably never as bad as many people expected.
BOK FAILURE INCOMPREHENSIBLE
What made it so incomprehensible is the Springboks’ own failure - how they surged with almost perfect rugby to 22-0 up and then lost with 38 unanswered points in the second half. How they failed to adapt, how they failed to fight, and how their defence fell apart in that second half.
For a side that have won two consecutive World Cups, they had an air of invincibility about them. They may not always play sublime rugby, but they have almost always found a way to win.
But on Saturday the cracks showed. They showed in the second half against Italy when they were 27-3 up and lost the second half, and had the embarrassment of a 20 metre maul try against them.
For so long things have worked so well for Springbok rugby under Rassie Erasmus and co, that this defeat - and against a side that exploited their weaknesses - reverberated around the world.
ERASMUS’ ENEMIES CELBRATING DEFEAT
Make no mistake, there are many people around the world celebrating this defeat. When one team dominates for so long, a defeat will send many into rapture and it is clear in world rugby Erasmus doesn’t have many fans.
The shock on the other side is because Erasmus has lifted the Boks out of the doldrums, has extinguished the quota debate and given Bok fans so much happiness over the last seven years that a bit of hubris may have crept in. After all, the joy that fans sing Zombie with a Rassie flavour may be fun over here, but across the world it is seen as arrogance.
But as the new test week dawns, many Bok fans are wondering what this one defeat means for the world champions? It was inevitable that at some point a reality check would come.
The Boks have enjoyed the luxury of rotating teams, rotating players and getting away with it.
SELECTION GAMBLE BACKFIRED
This past week (and this is in retrospect) they went into a test without a bomb squad, with a loose trio that was set on stopping Australia and not playing to their own strengths, without a recognised back-up flyhalf and with a bunch of players without a lot of test experience.
The two props on the bench had three games in Green and Gold between them. There was no RG Snyman - the first bomb squad player selected in any squad - and the confidence in Manie Libbok’s attacking abilities may have been overstated.
Aphelele Fassi will develop into a masterful player but on Saturday he was caught out of position more than once with Edwill van der Merwe having to rescue the Boks in that first half from kicks into the 22 twice.
Erasmus gambled with the squad and came up short. The senior players on the field bear a lot of responsibility as well. Was there overconfidence? It’s hard to argue otherwise when they continued to spread the ball wide deep into the game when Australia’s counterpunches had hauled them in and opened up a big lead.
WAS THERE OVERCONFIDENCE?
The “lineout move” in the midfield when they were 11 points behind smacks of that as well, especially as this is a team known for physicality and dominance. On Saturday while they dominated all the stats, the forwards were hardly more than a link in a backline game of spread it wide quickly.
The return to a Springbok pattern will come this week and the shock will probably be turned into a backlash that many expect in Cape Town. The Boks were hurt and will need to respond. Failure to do so will bring so many more questions.
But bigger than that, this Bok team needs to settle the questions that have been swirling since last year. Erasmus has been very loyal to his World Cup winners, and with good reason.
The growing chorus of youngsters looking for a starting spot is one thing, but the danger is an over-reaction, losing experience and replacing it with inexperience. The Boks rotation meant the best performance was planned for Eden Park. They may not have the luxury of so much rotation after this defeat.
ERASMUS HAS EARNED RIGHT TO BE TRUSTED
Erasmus though, has earned the right to be trusted. And he will know that things can change very quickly in rugby. On Saturday he smiled through the press conference - but it wasn’t a happy smile. It seemed - as a colleague said afterwards - that he looked like a car crash victim, trying to figure out what happened.
He is concerned, and rightly so. The World Champions were sucker punched. And they had no answer. When so many times in the past teams have hit the Boks hard, they have come back and hit back harder. On Saturday they looked dazed, uncomfortable and tired. It was a look we are not familiar with with this side.
“It is concerning. If you’re 22-0 up, you might lose a test match but not by 20 points so it’s very concerning, and it’s something we have to fix,” Erasmus said after the game.
“We lost a few line-outs with sometimes just bad approach, sometimes timing, sometimes the wrong call, and we had three weeks to prepare for these (Rugby Championship) games.”
The only way the Boks can front up now is to face the challenge head on. Hard words are needed. A response is necessary.
“When a team loses like that, the coaches must be on the chopping block, the coaches must be under pressure,” he said.
“It’s not the first time that that has happened in our careers, and I don’t care if the headlines tomorrow say that.
“We’ve been in similar situations where we’ve lost with big margins against Australia and then we had to go and beat New Zealand. We terribly want to win the Rugby Championship.
RUGBY CHAMPS NOT OVER
“I don’t think it’s over and done and dusted. I think a lot of things can still happen. A player doesn’t go and play there just by his own devices and just do what he wants to do.
“We kind of guide them and pick the team selection when the road doesn’t go your way. Maybe combinations were wrong, maybe plans were wrong, and maybe the halftime talk was terrible.
“We led 22, I think it was seven then (22-5 lead). And they scored in four minutes three tries. And I’m not smiling because of it, but it’s more an embarrassed embarrassed smile, (if) I can call it that.”
“So I can sit here and give excuses, but I must point the finger straight at me, because I really thought we were well prepared for this game, and the effort maybe showed it, but the accuracy and the precision was not there.”
SEVEN TELLING DAYS
The Boks had three weeks to prepare for the Wallabies and chose to try and run them off their feet and it backfired. Now with a seven day turnaround they need to find that accuracy and precision and give a response.
Anything less will see the doubt become bigger, and the questions larger. And while it is not the time for panic and despair, the cracks were unexpected, and the result even less so.
Chances are the Boks will repair the damage this week, but it is a wake-up call that they may have needed ahead of Eden Park.
And the coaching cliche that no team should be underestimated is a very real thing.
But this week is about Erasmus and the Boks and finding a way to respond. Cape Town may not be the biggest test of their careers, but it is the biggest test of this World Cup cycle.
How they respond will say a lot about which narrative from the weekend was right. Were they overtrained? Were they overconfident? Was it just a lack of accuracy? Where was the leadership in that second half?
Only these players and this management can answer that and turn the conversation around. One game doesn’t make a crisis, but it can serve as a warning.
The response can speak volumes as well.