Last season the teams that made the Vodacom United Rugby Championship playoffs were decided on the last weekend of league play but it may not take that long for there to be some clarity on where everyone stands this time around.
The phrase “decisive weekend” is perhaps a bit over-used, particularly in a competition like the URC which has been so tight and in which there has been a logjam in the middle reaches of the table for most of the season.
But while there might still be a numerical possibility of some teams still making it into the playoffs, and even the top four, it could be pretty cut and dried after this weekend’s 16th round.
A proviso does have to be added to that - it does depend on how the games turn out. Leinster will be expected to beat Scarlets at Parc Y Scarlets on Saturday, in which case the current ninth placed team, two points behind the seventh and eighth placed Munster and DHL Stormers, who are both on 40 points, will have to hope Munster and the Stormers lose.
If the seemingly impossible happened, and Scarlets somehow beat Leinster, then they will still be in the mix heading into the last rounds regardless of what happens elsewhere.
And Scarlets are not alone in hoping that Cardiff win at home against Munster on Friday night and that Benetton repeat their excellent performance against the Emirates Lions in Johannesburg by winning in Cape Town on Saturday.
The 13th-placed Ospreys and 14th-placed Lions effectively dropped out of the race for top eight, which signifies a place in the payoffs and qualification for next season’s Investec Champions Cup, when they lost last week.
For them the knockout round arrived in round 15. But for 12th-placed Connacht up, there is still hope as they are a maximum of a bonus point win behind the Stormers.
So Connacht have good reason to want to replicate their good performance against the Stormers, only this time go one better by actually getting across the line as winners.
Fifth-placed Benetton and sixth placed Cardiff will still be catchable, at least theoretically, by the Scarlets and Connacht as they are only one point ahead of Munster and the Stormers, but it would depend on whether those teams manage to get any bonus points, and whether they themselves get anything out of their games.
MUNSTER AND STORMERS GAMES ARE HUGE
What is clear is that the games involving Munster and the Stormers will be decisive for all four teams. Benetton certainly won’t be easy opponents for the Stormers, and Stormers director of rugby John Dobson has likened them to La Rochelle.
But a win will see the Stormers leapfrog the Italian team into fifth or sixth, depending on the result of the clash between Cardiff and Munster.
And given they only have Welsh teams to play in the final two rounds, both at the DHL Stadium, it will be hard to see them being dislodged from the top six if they get there this week.
Munster have a tougher run to the finish line as their game after the one against Cardiff is a derby against Ulster. Those games are invariably close and hard to call.
While Cardiff or Benetton wins this week won’t put them out of sight of Munster and the Stormers in the quest for a top six spot, it will make it a lot harder for the chasing teams. Which is why the Stormers are regarding Saturday evening’s fixture as such a critical hurdle to overcome.
WIN WILL CLINCH TOP FOUR FOR SHARKS
It is the same for the Sharks as they head to Ulster on the same evening. For them top eight is assured, and they are in the pound seats when it comes to finishing in the top four. If other results go their way, they could even challenge for second. However, a defeat to Ulster will still leave their current fourth place vulnerable to chasing teams who would then be within one win of them.
Conversely, if they beat Ulster, and given that they have home games against Scarlets and Ospreys to come after that, the race for fourth will be over as they would be two wins ahead with just two to play.
GLASGOW GAME A SHOOT-OUT FOR SECOND PLACE
But this weekend’s round is not just about determining the top four and there being more clarity on who finishes in the top eight.
Given that Glasgow Warriors have an away fixture against imperious Leinster to look forward to in the final phase of the league in May, the Vodacom Bulls will be in with a great chance of a highly coveted second-place finish behind Leinster if they beat the champions in the replay of last year’s Loftus final at the Scotstoun on Friday night.
The Bulls, if they can get ahead of Glasgow on the log, will be hard to stop given that their final games are at Loftus against secondllast Dragons and Cardiff. We should be wary of writing off Cardiff - they also play the Stormers in Cape Town - as they are a much improved team and there is a reason they are sixth on the log.
On South African soil though the South African teams should be heavily favoured to win.
Round 16 VURC matches
Cardiff v Munster (Cardiff, Friday 8:35pm)
Glasgow Warriors v Vodacom Bulls (Glasgow, Friday 8:25pm)
Emirates Lions v Connacht (Johannesburg, Saturday 4pm)
Ospreys v Dragons (Newport, Saturday 4pm)
DHL Stormers v Benetton (Cape Town, Saturday 6:15pm)
Scarlets v Leinster (Llanelli, Saturday 6:15pm)
Zebre v Edinburgh (Parma, Saturday 8:35pm)
Ulster v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Belfast, Saturday 8:35pm)
Log situation after 15 games: 1. Leinster 67 points, 2. Glasgow Warriors 58, 3. Vodacom Bulls 54, 4. Hollywoodbets Sharks 49, 5. Benetton 41, 6. Cardiff 41, 7. Munster 40, 8. DHL Stormers 40, 9. Scarlets 38, 10. Ulster 37, 11. Edinburgh 37, 12. Connacht 35, 13. Ospreys 33, 14. Emirates Lions 31, 15. Zebre 27, 16. Dragons 9.
Remaining matches for SA teams
Vodacom Bulls
Glasgow Warriors (a) 25 April
Cardiff (h) 10 May
Dragons (h) 17 May
Hollywoodbets Sharks
Ulster (a) 26 April
Ospreys (h) 9 May
Scarlets (h) 17 May
DHL Stormers
Benetton (h) 26 April
Dragons (h) 10 May
Cardiff (h) 16 May
Emirates Lions
Connacht (h) 26 April
Scarlets (h) 11 May
Ospreys (h) 17 May