SIX NATIONS: Bok tour opener a likely clash of champions

There is a lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and when the Springboks and France clash in Paris in the first match of the 2025 end of year tour at the start of November.

Aside from their final Guinness Six Nations clash with Scotland that presents an appetising closer to their quest to be reinstalled as European champions for the first time since 2022, France are also due to head to New Zealand for a mid-year tour in July.

Whether or not they send a full strength squad will become a talking point nearer the time.

The Boks of course only start their 2025 schedule when they host Italy in Pretoria in early July, and they face two tough away games against the All Blacks in their quest to retain the Castle Lager Rugby Championship title they won last year.

However, even if they don’t go in against France at Stade Francais as Rugby Championship title holders, and no-one should bet against that, they will still be world champions.

It does look like France and South Africa are the best teams in the world right now. The Boks proved their status as No 1 in a 2024 campaign that saw just two narrow one point defeats in games that were in the balance and could have been won on the final whistle.

France lost to England in this Six Nations, but wow, their form since then has been spellbinding.

From the evidence of their comprehensive win over Ireland, who started as favourites in Dublin, the France national team is starting to embrace the multi-dimensional style of their top club teams, Toulouse, Bordeaux Begles and La Rochelle, and are transporting it onto the higher stage.

France were imperious in bouncing back from the unexpected England loss, where they really conspired against themselves, by thrashing Italy.

And they were even better at the AVIVA Stadium, where they were given a proper defensive workout in the first half hour.

Indeed, it was their defence that won them that game as much as their attack. Ireland threw everything they had at their opponents, but couldn’t get through, and when the dam wall, it was France who broke it.

FRENCH DEPTH IS INCREDIBLE AND IT IS GROWING

That France won it so comfortably even though they lost their talisman and arguably the world’s best player, Antoine Dupont, in the first half made their achievement even more impressive.

It was a bleak day for Dupont, who later had it confirmed that he will be out for long enough for his participation in the clash with the world champions to be in doubt.

But France has depth and, as evidenced by their under-20 teams comprehensive thrashing of Ireland the night before the Dublin game, they have plenty of young talent coming through.

France don’t look like being fleeting challengers for world supremacy, they look like they are here to stay, and the South Africans, who also have good systems and a strong pipeline of talent, even if the Junior Bok results in recent years don’t reflect that, are going to need to keep abreast of them.

Given that their most recent game against France was the World Cup quarterfinal, which could have gone either way and was decided by the finest of margins, the meeting in Paris will be an important one from a psychological viewpoint.

That is particularly so given how the local teams have struggled to live with the French clubs in Investec Champions Cup matches in the past few years.

The Stormers’ win over La Rochelle, then the European Champions, in December 2023 and then the one point defeat later in the same campaign in the round of 16 game, is the only exception to the rule of French domination.

THREE TEAMS IN CONTENTION ON SUPER SATURDAY

There is no Grand Slam on the line because none of the three teams in contention heading into what has been titled Super Saturday, with all three games being played one after each other on the same day, have lost once.

But it is hard to recall when last the battle for the Six Nations title was so close and extended to more than just two teams.

Ireland looked like they were going to make it an unprecedented three in a row and a second successive Grand Slam until they ran into the French juggernaut. Their failure to even pick up a bonus point means they head into their final game against Italy in Rome third behind France and England, with two points separating the three teams.

Ireland will be expected to win comfortably against Italy, who as an aside need to rediscover their competitiveness in this Six Nations if they are to come to South Africa for a two test series with any kind of confidence.

Their good win over Wales, a result that jettisoned Wales’ then coach Warren Gatland, was forgotten when they shipped more than 70 at home against France and then nearly 50 away against England. They were also quite soundly beaten by Scotland, who hold they key to who will reign as Six Nations champions.

SCOTLAND HOLD THE KEY

If they can knock over France, something that will demand the tenacity and commitment they showed against England in London but also better kicking off the tee than they experienced that day, then both Ireland and England are in the mix, with bonus points and points differential suddenly becoming crucial.

The Six Nations is a competition that uses points differential as a tie break, and France have a points differential advantage over England of 83. So, realistically, a bonus-point win for England over Wales won’t be enough if later on the same day France win without a bonus point.

That would leave them level on points but Maro Itoje’s team would lose out to points differential.

England though, provided they do beat Wales, have made strides in this Six Nations, regardless of where they end up. You’d suggest that a big win over Italy at Twickenham should be a gimme, but that wasn’t always the case before last season.

They hadn’t beaten Scotland for five years before their win in London, so their ending synopsis of four wins in five games will exceed expectations.

But Wales could be difficult for them, particularly if they repeat the home form they showed in their first post-Gatland game against Ireland. Wales are desperate to win as their run of losses extends beyond 15, so there will be no lack of motivation.

Not that Wales ever need extra motivation when they play their neighbours from across the Severn River Bridge.

IRELAND NEED A LOT TO HAPPEN

Of the three in contention, Ireland are the team with the easiest game, but they are also the one most dependent on what happens elsewhere. They effectively need both France and England to lose to stand any chance of making it a hattrick of Six Nations titles.

Still, that doesn’t detract from the excitement of having a final day of competition start with three potential winners. If the other two sides win, it will be all on the line in the late kick-off in Paris.

In the unlikely event of both Ireland and England losing without even getting a bonus point, and them beating France comprehensively enough to deny them a bonus point and at the same time score four tries, Scotland could end up tied on points at the top.

However, in that event France will get the trophy on account of vastly superior points difference.

Round 4 Guinness Six Nations results (home teams first)

England 47 Italy 24

Scotland 35 Wales 29

Ireland 27 France 42

Points tally going into last round: France 16, England 15, Ireland 14, Scotland 11, Italy 4, Wales 3.

What the teams need

France

They just need to win to make sure as their points differential is just too superior to the other teams. Even if England win with a bonus point and they win without a bonus point, the count out will favour France in the event of them ending on the same number of points.

Ireland

The reigning champions need a bucketload of points in Rome, and England to lose or miss out on a bonus point and France to lose.

England

England need to do the business against Wales first and then Scotland to win in Paris.