Five semifinals, three Aussie showdowns for SA

India concluded their perfect campaign so far with a ninth consecutive victory, against the Netherlands, on the festival day of Diwali, on Sunday. It was the final group match of a tournament which has been dragging its feet for a while now, but the business end offers two potentially exhilarating contests.

South Africa have reached the semifinals for the fifth time, starting with their widely unexpected success in 1992 just months after being readmitted to international cricket. It will be the third time they face Australia in the last four, having infamously tied (to be eliminated) at Edgbaston in 1999 before being thrashed by seven wickets in 2007 in St.Lucia.

Having comprehensively beaten their old foe by 134 runs in the second group game, South Africa might be credited with a ‘psychological advantage’, but that was over a month ago and the tide of momentum may have shifted. Australia won seven consecutive games after two opening defeats and the Proteas were bush-whipped by India to 83 all out, losing by a record 243 runs. And yet... 

It may be a simple strategy with tactical limitations, but the Proteas’ victory blueprint is devastating at its best. Four totals in excess of 350 and five victories in excess of 100 runs make them undeniable contenders to reach their first final and win it. But they probably need to bat first.

While focus and attention have been on the eye-catching power and strength of the top-six batters and the remarkable form of Quinton de Kock and his four centuries, the performance of the bowling unit has been equally important in South Africa’s mostly trouble-free romp to the knockout stages.

The Proteas have taken more wickets in the first, 10-over Power Play than any other team with Marco Jansen alone having claimed 12. Bowling for wickets rather than dot-balls can prove expensive with field restrictions in place but the risk-reward equation has suited South Africa so far.

Kagiso Rabada, very much the leader of the attack even without the new ball, may not feature among the leading wicket-takers but his influence has been enormous while Keshav Maharaj has been the most economical spinner in the tournament. Gerald Coetzee has been a revelation, a selection gamble which has paid off handsomely. ‘Extra pace’ does not guarantee wickets but they have been delivered this time.

After decades of dominance against South Africa, Australia’s ODI record against the Proteas in the last eight years is humbling with just six victories in the last 21 matches. Little wonder that their current bullishness extends to their own performances rather than South Africa’s, although there is much to celebrate within the ranks with Glenn Maxwell’s astonishing 201* against Afghanistan and Mitch March’s 177 against Bangladesh in their last two group games lifting spirits and confidence exponentially.

Both teams will prefer to bat first although Australia will be more confident than South Africa in a run-chase. If the coin lands on the right side for the Proteas, recent history suggests they will be heading back to the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad for their first experience of the ‘ultimate game’.

If only the South Africans could have the luxury of New Zealand’s position. Sneaking into fourth place with a 5/4 win-loss ratio and facing the rampant, unbeaten home side in front of a raucous, capacity crowd, the Black Caps have nothing to lose. Except the game. Long odds and low expectations from their supporters mean the players have a ‘free hit’. Extreme underdogs in a pressure-free environment have a tendency to prevail. Can India win 10-in-a-row?

The World Cup spluttered for support for a month, gradually gained traction and could finish with the highest attendance of all time for the final, provided India are there. If it’s South Africa against New Zealand then the tournament could finish as it began here, with luke-warm interest and many thousands of empty seats. Not that Australians, South Africans or New Zealanders would care.