Disciplined and clinical performance can win it for Boks

If the Springboks go on to win this World Cup there is a good chance that any equivalent of the Chasing the Sun documentary series that focused on the 2019 triumph will feature coaches and players talking about the importance of Saturday’s big showdown with Ireland.

That’s not because the Paris match will necessarily be particularly pivotal to the South African advance from the pool stage. Even if the Boks do lose at Stade de France their advance to the quarterfinal phase will only be in jeopardy if Scotland cook in their remaining two group games before they play Ireland, and then confound expectations by actually winning that game.

The importance of this game could instead be centred on its potential to be a great dry run for a possible final against one of Ireland, France or New Zealand at the same Stade de France venue in the last weekend of October.

There was one in the previous World Cup of course, namely the opening game against New Zealand in Yokohama, where lessons were learned from defeat, and then-coach Rassie Erasmus turned the later clash with Italy in Shizouka into another dry run in the sense that it was sudden death. Had the Boks lost then, that defeat coupled with the one against the All Blacks would have sent them tumbling out of the World Cup.

However, this game is arguably much bigger and even more authentic as a preparation for the playoffs, where regardless of the opponent the quarterfinal in mid-October is going to feel like a final. The Boks play New Zealand at least twice every year because of their participation in the Castle Lager Rugby Championship. There was also never really much chance of them losing to Italy despite Erasmus’ protestations to the contrary.

RARENESS OF CLASHES MAKES THIS ONE EXTRA SPECIAL

It goes without saying that this Ireland game is far more 50/50 than Shizouka was - it is effectively No 1 against No 2 in the world. For the Boks it is also a game against an opponent they have not beaten since they scraped to a narrow win in what was then Port Elizabeth to clinch a home series win in 2016.

Subsequent to that series, which saw the hosts lose a game on home soil to Ireland for the first time (the opening match of the rubber in Cape Town), the Boks have only played Ireland twice. Allister Coetzee’s career as Bok coach had started with the Newlands calamity and pretty much ended on the November night in 2017 when Ireland ran riot at the Aviva.

The appeal of Saturday’s massive showdown in Paris is that since then, in a period of six years, we only really have one reference point when analysing what might happen in this Pool B clash - and that was a desperately close affair in Dublin last November where Ireland got home due to a quite freaky try to Josh van der Flier as well as the poor Bok goalkicking.

LIBBOK WILL BE KEY

It was in fact the last big game the Boks have played without some involvement from Manie Libbok - last week’s rout of Romania doesn’t count as a big game - and he will be key to the South African chances of translating the hype that has developed around them since the emphatic win over New Zealand in London into something concrete.

The Boks used three kickers at the Aviva 10 months ago and they all kicked a bit of a shower. In the end, the margin was close enough to suggest the Boks would have won had the kicks been nailed. Libbok does share the duties these days with others, with Faf de Klerk and Damian Willemse all lined up to kick if necessary, but so much will hinge on him holding his nerve if or when he gets early opportunities to translate any Bok pressure into points.

It goes further than that. Mention was made of Van der Flier’s try, which was dotted down on the corner flag off a driving maul, and it cues the word clinical. Ireland were clinical that night, the Boks weren’t. The kicks at goal weren’t the only opportunities the World Cup champions wasted in Dublin.

The Boks have been good in the final buildup to the global rugby showpiece event and in the early World Cup games but they haven’t always been clinical. Against Ireland they have to be, for opportunities wasted are unlikely to come around again. The kind of freaky try scored by Van der Flier needs to be scored by the Boks this time.

Make no mistake, the Irish have enough shape to their attacking game to challenge the Bok defences, and the champs will be hard pressed to keep intact their incredible record of having only conceded two tries in the eight World Cup games they have played since they lost the 2019 opener in Yokohama.

DIFFICULT TO CALL BUT SA HAVE GROWN SINCE LAST MEETING

The fact they have so rarely met over the past few years does make this game particularly difficult to call, and perhaps even more so because of the growth in both teams since last November. Subsequent to their last meeting, Ireland have won the Six Nations at a canter. The Boks didn’t do anything special in the Rugby Championship, but they have grown their game.

Indeed, the Dublin game was the last one where the Boks were really criticised for being too conservative in their approach. Boring rugby was very much a theme in the media at the start of that tour - the Boks played Ireland in the first game - but it swung dramatically the following week when they started to run kick receipt back against France in Marseille.

And while there have been criticisms of Libbok because of his inconsistency from the tee, his introduction to the Bok No 10 jersey has mostly been an overwhelmingly positive one. The Boks do now appear to have more magic in the playmaking positions that could make that crucial difference by breaking open an opposing defence system. In a tight game, which Saturday night's should be, that only needs to happen once.

BENCH SPLIT COVERS ABSENCE OF MARX

Of course it hasn’t been all plain sailing for the Boks in the buildup to this game, and the decision not to replace the admittedly almost irreplaceable Malcolm Marx with another specialist hooker is high risk. What happens if Bongi Mbonambi goes down early?

What the Boks have done to get around Marx’s absence is to return to the 7:1 split between forwards and backs that made them so unpopular after the warmup game against New Zealand. But as coach Jacques Nienaber and director of rugby Erasmus will tell you, the team are not in France to make friends, they are there to retain their World Cup title.

They will do whatever it takes, and the baseline of what is required this time is a near-perfect performance that is disciplined and clinical. Yes, exactly what will be required in a quarterfinal or final.

Teams

South Africa: Damian Willemse, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Cheslin Kolbe, Manie Libbok, Faf de Klerk, Jasper Wiese, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi (captain), Franco Mostert, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff. Replacements: Deon Fourie, Ox Nche, Trevor Nyakane, Jean Kleyn, RG Snyman, Marco van Staden, Kwagga Smith.

Ireland: To be confirmed

Referee: Ben O’Keefe (New Zealand)

Kick-off: 9pm

Prediction: Boks to edge it by less than 7