URC PREVIEW: Intensity of top four race will mean there's no room for error

The likelihood that the quest for a coveted top four finish in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship will be tighter than it has ever been this season means that there will be an immediate onset of pressure at the start of the competition this weekend.

The DHL Stormers, who start off this edition of the URC by hosting Leinster at DHL Stadium on Friday night, are a perfect example of why finishing in the top four is important. In the first two seasons they finished second and third respectively, and ended up winning one title and playing in both finals.

Subsequent to that they’ve finished fifth both times, and as a consequence they haven’t again advanced beyond the quarterfinals. On both occasions they were well beaten by Glasgow Warriors at the Scotstoun and their director of rugby John Dobson admitted afterwards how tough it is to have to cross the equator to play a quarterfinal.

Although they went two rounds deeper in the competition by making their third final, it was the same story for the Vodacom Bulls - they won both their home playoff games in Pretoria but weren’t able to win the final against Leinster when they had to travel to Dublin.

IT WAS ONLY GLASGOW FINAL BULLS SHOULD HAVE EXPECTED TO WIN

The Bulls have earned themselves a status of being nearly men in the competition, but in reality it was only the one home final at home to Glasgow Warriors that they should have expected to win and that will be remembered as a missed opportunity. Although theoretically they only had to go as far as Cape Town for the inaugural final in 2022, they really made a trans-equator trip to that deciding game as they played Leinster in Dublin in their semifinal.

Of course, Munster, who beat the Stormers in the 2023 final, proved that it is possible to cross the equator, at least in this direction, to win a final, and Glasgow did it the following year when they went to Loftus, but it is a top four finish, and preferably top two, that provides the best springboard to success in those final weeks.

The battle for top four spots gets more competitive every season and this one should be no different, with the Stormers not the only team that featured strongly in the first two seasons that hasn’t been able to get back into that same space subsequently. Ulster for instance will feel they are due a big season after two years of relative struggle by their standards, while Munster could only finish sixth last season after finishing top of the log the year before.

The formidable Irish province weren’t able to repeat their 2023 experience when they played the Sharks in Durban in last year’s quarterfinal, but will have been made well aware of the importance of having home ground advantage when they lost out in an agonising kick-off after extra time at Hollywoodbets Kings Park.

While on the subject of Irish provinces, Connacht will have former England coach Stuart Lancaster as their leader this season and could be a dark horse challenger, while Benetton were making a strong challenge for a top four finish before they were blown away by the Stormers in Cape Town.

STORMERS CRAVE POSITIVE START

The Stormers have made a habit of slow starts to the competition, and while they made up the lost ground later on in the first two seasons, in the last two they’ve been caught short. So for them a rare start in Cape Town, with their only previous home game in the first game being played in Stellenbosch in the second season, needs to be taken advantage of.

They will be on the road soon enough, with their tour to start in the third round, so they will be going all out to get wins both against a Leinster team that will be without its British and Irish Lions for this first game (and of course Springbok RG Snyman) and the following week against the Ospreys.

If they get that right, they will be able to go overseas feeling more confident and that they have a platform to play off in their quest for a top four finish that they haven’t had in the past.

SHARKS FACE TOUGH TOUR

The Hollywoodbets Sharks by contrast start with an away tour, and considering that their opponents on the road include Glasgow and Leinster, the two immediate past winners of the tournament, anything they get from the trip will be a source of relief.

Opening in Glasgow on Friday night immediately after the Stormers game will be a tall order for John Plumtree’s charges at a venue where the hosts don’t often lose. The Sharks, like the other South African teams, will be without their Boks, which will make their task harder, but coach Plumtree knows his rank and file players better now after spending two seasons at the franchise, and they in turn know him well now too. So hopefully that will count for something.

DEALING WITH DISAPPOINTMENT KEY FOR LIONS

The Emirates Lions go to Cardiff on Saturday night and it will be interesting to see how they have dealt with a second successive agonising loss in a Carling Currie Cup final. It is anticipated that the Lions will discover later in the season that they have repeated a mistake from last year by chasing the domestic trophy as hard as they did, but for now they should be battle hardened and sharp. That means they have a chance of beating Cardiff, although with the Welsh teams having something extra to play for in these initial stages of the season, victory is something that they will have to fight hard for.

That something extra referenced above is the uncertainty that must have descended on the body of Welsh players when it was announced that there is an intention to cut the number of Welsh regions from four to two. That could move from being intention to fact in a few weeks, so it is no exaggeration to suggest the Welsh players are fighting for their survival as professional players.

It will be interesting to see where that desperation gets them, and it is true that with the exception of the Dragons, who ended last, the Welsh challenge in the URC was much more competitive last season.


BULLS THE ONLY LOCAL BANKER THIS WEEK

If there is a South African banker in this first weekend it is the Bulls, who get the advantage of hosting the Ospreys in an early Saturday kick-off. If it is a hot day to combine with the altitude factor, it will be a nigh impossible task for the visitors.

The Bulls have a new coach in Johan Ackermann but ironically will be playing with a squad largely built by the man he replaced, Jake White. Handre Pollard is of course with the Boks and we hear Nicolaas Janse van Rensburg is injured currently so not all of White’s acquisitions will be in action against the Ospreys, but the former coach has left the building at the very time that he was getting his wish when it came to recruiting a squad capable of taking the necessary step of graduating from being beaten finalists to tournament winners.

Liverpool won the Premier League last year when the team Jurgen Klopp built played under the new manager Arne Slot and the Bulls can hope for a similar effect. Leinster are a tough nut to crack, the Sharks will be dangerous if all their marquee players gel, but the Bulls do again look like the next best team in the competition when you look at squad depth. Ackermann will be hoping they can punch above their weight when it matters in the big games and make the step up from playing the recent Arsenal role of being repeat runners-up.

Weekend Vodacom United Rugby Championship fixtures (first round)

DHL Stormers v Leinster (Cape Town, Friday 19.00)

Glasgow Warriors v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Glasgow, Friday 21.05)

Ulster v Dragons (Belfast, Friday 21.05)

Vodacom Bulls v Ospreys (Pretoria, Saturday 14.00)

Zebre v Edinburgh (Parma, Saturday 16.05)

Scarlets v Munster (Llanelli, Saturday 18.30)

Connacht v Benetton (Galway, Saturday 19.00)

Cardiff Rugby v Emirates Lions (Cardiff, Saturday 21.05)