SIX NATIONS UPDATE: Major change of narrative as halfway mark arrives

There has been a change of narrative on several fronts as the Guinness Six Nations reaches its halfway point with the third round of fixtures at the weekend.

There’s been a change of coach, the favourites have been toppled, and the side that had gone a long run of fixtures against top sides as the losing team has finally broken that drought and can start believing again.

For Wales Saturday will represent a new beginning as they start life under a new albeit temporary coach following the decision apparently made mutually for Warren Gatland and the nation he excelled with in his first stint but failed dismally with during his second stint to part ways.

But for Matt Sherratt, the caretaker coach who was seconded to the role after doing well with Cardiff this season, it can’t come tougher than it does in his first outing at the helm - Wales face log leaders and now favourites for the title, Ireland, on Saturday, with the one saving grace being that the match will be played at the Wales home ground of the Principality Stadium.

England coach Steve Borthwick can breathe easier as his team head into arguably the plum game of the weekend against Scotland, with rugby’s mathematicians now no longer tallying his sequence of defeats at the hands of top tier teams following his side’s epic last gasp win against France last week.

And lastly France head to Rome on Sunday facing the reality that they are no longer chasing a Grand Slam to salve the wounds of their 2023 World Cup exit but for them the consolation prize of winning the Six Nations, with the deciding game in that quest set for 8 March against Ireland.

That is providing they beat Italy, and don’t laugh at the suggestion they might not, because they were lucky to draw with Italy in last year’s Six Nations.

If Italy win their rise will start becoming the talking point in the competition. Last year they didn’t just draw with France and beat Wales, they also beat Scotland.

They’ve now beaten Wales often enough - thrice in the last few years - for that to no longer be a surprise, and one thing that has not changed for this coming weekend is that Wales will start out in the wooden spoon position, with just their solitary losing bonus point in the reverse in Rome in the second round to show for their efforts so far.

BOTH SMITHS TO FACE SCOTLAND

We did say there would be aberrations, but the England win over France did slightly challenge our contention that the Six Nations is divided into three different levels - Ireland and France way out in front, Scotland and England in the second tier, and Italy and Wales competing to avoid the wooden spoon. Put France ahead of Ireland, and that was the anticipated finishing order.

It is only a slight challenge in the sense that a review of the England/France game would not be complete and thorough if it did not point out that France were playing away and really should have won with something to spare.

Seldom has a top team dropped as many passes and fluffed as many scoring chances as France did at Twickenham and they will be kicking themselves for a missed opportunity to keep their Grand Slam hopes alive.

Having said that, England quite emphatically did what they had failed to do since they had beaten Ireland in last year’s Six Nations - they closed a game out. They did more than that, they won it at the death, something few who have seen them give it away at the death in such a long sequence of matches would have foreseen coming.

You got the impression that the English media who had got used to following the same old narrative almost didn’t know what to say after that result. It confounded all the theories and wasn’t expected, although at Twickenham it should always have been seen as possible.

England weren’t far away in the games they had lost, with the Bok nine point win in London last November being one of the rare occasions there was more than a score in it.

For a set of people who often find it hard to find a balance between overdoing the purple praise and being too defeatist and acerbic, the reaction was a bit out of character - the England media are now waiting to see if that win over one of the world’s top teams signified the start of a proper turnaround or whether it was a mirage.

What better team to present a reality test than Scotland, who have not lost to England in five years. A loss to the Scots is still seen as a major setback, but a win will be noted as an achievement given how rarely it has happened in recent times.

Much of the focus switched after the win over France to the roles played by the two Smiths, flyhalf Fin and Marcus, who was playing fullback. The consensus is that the 22 year old Fin is the long awaited answer to England’s need for a world class flyhalf, but there is debate over whether Smith should continue in his out of position role at fullback.

Borthwick has opted to keep the examination of that combination alive by retaining them in their positions for the Scotland game, with Marcus retaining the place-kicking duties.

CONCUSSED PLAYERS LIKELY TO PLAY

When Scotland backline stars Darcy Graham and Finn Russell collided heavily during their team's disappointing surrender to Ireland at Murrayfield in Round 2, it was rightly assumed that both of them would miss the England game. Think again.

Reports out of Edinburgh suggest both are progressing well through their concussion protocols in their team’s warm weather camp in Spain and now may be ready to play at Twickenham, although it will hang in the balance until they have returned to full training on the eve of the game.

Part of the concussion protocols is a 12-day stand down rule, meaning they can’t take contact int that time, and as the Scotland/Ireland game was played on a Sunday that means Friday is the first time they can train fully.

If they do make it it will come as a significant boost for Scotland, who frankly were never in the game against Ireland and desperately need to maintain their winning form in Calcutta Cup matches if questions are not going to start being asked about the continuation of Gregor Townsend’s role as coach.

Scotland have become a good middling team, as have England, but there is an expectation for them to start making some progress, and the Ireland clash, or crash, was supposed to be a litmus test for them in that regard.

But there’s no opponent that the Scots enjoy beating more than England, and they will be motivated by the knowledge that a triumph at Twickenham will be an unprecedented fifth successive win for them.

For England, who were set the target of improving on last year’s third place finish, this is a big game as they’ve already played the top two teams and only have Wales and Italy after this.

While much focus will be on the two Smiths, the man who may hold the key to England’s chances is flanker Tom Curry, who was sublime against France and really should have won the man of the match award.

DORIS TO MISS CARDIFF CLASH

The good news for Wales is that Ireland will be without three influential players, including skipper Caelan Doris, when the log leaders come visiting on Saturday.

Doris has a knee injury while hooker Ronan Kelleher has sustained a neck injury and prop Tadhg Furlong is still out with the hamstring injury that kept him out of the games against England and Scotland.

Otherwise it is business as usual for Ireland, who are the one team playing this week who don’t have a change of narrative. For them, the Grand Slam is still on, which is more than can be said for any other team.

They should of course be wary of the change of coach effect that can sometimes galvanise teams. Sherratt hasn’t had enough time to substantially change anything in the Wales approach, and his bosses are rightly being criticised for their lack of succession planning.

Everyone knew Gatland was close to the exit door, but Sherratt’s appointment appeared to take place in a haphazard manner.

Former Springbok assistant Franco Smith, who has coached the Glasgow Warriors to success in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, is featuring prominently in the speculation about possible replacements.

But although he apparently does want to coach international rugby again - he has done the job with Italy - he’d need to give any offer careful consideration before accepting because it is patently obvious that the problems in Welsh rugby extend way beyond just the identity of the coach.

That said, the writing was on the wall for Gatland when his team surrendered so meekly to Italy. It was supposed to be a big effort game for Wales, but perhaps their attitude to their coach was summed up by their limp effort, with the final losing margin of just seven points flattering the Welsh.

They were outplayed for most of the 80 minutes and a false gloss to the scoreline was achieved through two late consolation driving maul tries.

Caretaker coach Sherratt though hasn’t shied away from the pressure since taking charge, and made it plain that he is chasing the win against Ireland.

That may seem fanciful, but it does show the right mindset, and there are changes in the air for Wales under the Cardiff coach, with the new coach ditching Gatland’s longstanding attack coach Rob Howley among others, and also recalling the experienced flyhalf Gareth Anscombe along with two other specialist pivots in Max Llewellyn and Jarrod Evans.

THIRD ROUND GUINNESS SIX NATIONS FIXTURES

Saturday

Wales v Ireland (Cardiff, 4:15pm)

England v Scotland (London, 6:45pm)

Sunday

Italy v France (Rome, 5pm)

SECOND ROUND RESULTS

Italy 22 Wales 15

England 26 France 25

Scotland 18 Ireland 32

HOW IT STANDS

Ireland 10 points after 2 games

France 6 points after 2 games

England 6 points after 2 games

Scotland 5 points after 2 games

Italy 4 points after to games

Wales 1 point after 2 games