URC PREVIEW: Big moment in Bulls’ quest for top two
The significance of the Vodacom Bulls’ narrow win over the DHL Stormers in Cape Town last week was that it was an away game for them at a venue they hadn’t won at before in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship.
Added to that was what is to come for them in the competition - they’ve played all their away derbies and only have two overseas games to come.
Admittedly those two games will be tough, as they are against the champions Glasgow Warriors and Munster, but if the Bulls can refortify their fortress after the dent sustained in a different competition against Northampton Saints, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to win all seven home games.
Given that they play Leinster the week before the Investec Champions Cup round of 16, which will almost certainly mean the runaway log leaders come to South Africa with an under-strength squad to play the Bulls at a venue where they’ve never won, the three home derbies should be their toughest remaining fixtures at Loftus.
The Emirates Lions visit the week after this and in the last few seasons they’ve done better against the Bulls away than they’ve done at home. And a week after that it is the return clash with the Stormers, who have enjoyed more success than any other team visiting Loftus in recent years.
The Bulls will be favourites in both games, but the point is they won’t be as heavily favoured as they will be when they play overseas teams.
CRUCIAL PHASE
So this phase is crucial for the Bulls in their quest for the top two finish that will secure a home run through most of the playoff phase. The Bulls are two points behind second placed Glasgow Warriors but they have a game in hand, so are well positioned.
Win the three derbies, starting with Saturday’s clash with the Hollywoodbets Sharks, and they could find themselves in the pound seats when they go into the games against overseas teams later in March.
Certainly you’d imagine that Bulls director of rugby Jake White would want to go into the away game against Glasgow, who are their most realistic challengers for second spot (Leinster will finish top, there’s no debate over that), either level with Franco Smith’s team or ahead of them.
Winning at the Scotstoun on 25 April will be a tough task, and a loss will decide the race for top two against them if they go into that game behind the reigning champions.
But the Sharks could be challengers for a top two spot too if they win at Loftus. Vincent Tshituka’s team are six points behind the Bulls at the halfway point of the competition (for them) but can cut the gap to one or two points if they win in Pretoria.
Which is what makes this game one of double significance for the Bulls. A win will in some senses feel like double points for them.
LIONS' LOWLY POSITION IS ILLUSIONARY
The same can be said for the Emirates Lions and DHL Stormers who clash 60 kilometres away earlier in the afternoon.
The Lions look like they are languishing as they are currently 13th, three positions behind the Stormers, but that is an illusion if you consider the Johannesburg team has only played eight games against the 10 of the Stormers.
The four point advantage the Stormers have can be cancelled out on Saturday, and they will still have two games on hand on the Cape side, as well as two games in hand on the team currently eighth. That is Edinburgh, who have an advantage of just five on the Lions, and one on the Stormers.
So the Lions, like their fellow Gauteng team, have a lot to play for and a lot to gain.
The knowledge they are heading up the M1 next week to play the Bulls should be extra motivation to get the job done against the Stormers.
There are a few other games that will have a big bearing on the jockeying for a top eight finish, such as Munster hosting Scarlets, Benetton against Ulster and Cardiff going to Galway so this break from action in the Six Nations so that the URC can take centre stage should provide an absorbing watch and a potentially interesting twist in the narrative.
It's a full complement of #VURC fixtures this weekend 🥳
— SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) February 14, 2025
Check out the two South African derbies headlining Saturday's action 🤩🇿🇦 pic.twitter.com/EiPtpraXMl
VODACOM URC WEEK 11 PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS
Ospreys v Leinster (Swansea, Friday, 21.35)
Leinster will have fringe Ireland internationals back in this bye weekend in the Guinness Six Nations and we saw how formidable they are even with most of them out when they comfortably beat the Stormers in Dublin three weeks ago.
The Ospreys thrashed Benetton last time out and are on the move again after a change of coach and they are at home but this is Leinster they are playing against…
Prediction: Leinster to win by 10
Edinburgh v Zebre (Edinburgh, Friday, 9:35pm)
Edinburgh are one of the teams on the borderline when it comes to the battle for a top eight finish so this is an important game for them. Zebre have shocked a few teams this season but there’s too much on the line for Edinburgh for there to be any complacency and they are playing at home.
Prediction: Edinburgh to win by 12
Emirates Lions v DHL Stormers (Johannesburg, Saturday, 2:30pm)
The Stormers comfortably dealt with the Lions in Cape Town before Christmas and are arguably a better team with more depth than their opponents but in Johannesburg, particularly in an early afternoon kick-off in summer, they are a whole lot more formidable.
The Stormers have never lost to the Lions at Emirates Airlines Park in the URC, but there have been some very close games and this will be another of those.
Prediction: Lions by less than 7.
Vodacom Bulls v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Pretoria, Saturday, 5pm)
Everyone knows that because they have so many Springboks the Sharks really need two good teams in the way that Leinster have, and this may be their opportunity to prove they are moving towards that point.
You wouldn’t call the team to take the field at Loftus a second-string combination, for Bongi Mbonambi, Vincent Tshituka, Lukhanyo Am, Ethan Hooker and Jordan Hendrikse are playing, and there’s little to choose between the starting scrumhalf Grant Williams and the rested Jaden Hendrikse.
But if you look at the players missing they are not far from it. So they go in as rank underdogs, which is a position teams from Durban have profited from in the past. But after last week’s scrumming performance in Cape Town it is hard to see the Bulls losing.
Prediction: Bulls to win by 8
Munster v Scarlets (Limerick, Saturday, 19.15)
The Stormers aren’t the only team that were consistent challengers in the first years of the URC that are struggling on the log this season, and Munster are one of those.
Unlike the Stormers they are in the top eight though and can climb higher if they beat Scarlets, who are one point ahead of them in sixth. Munster won’t be missing that many players to the international squad so should win to move closer to a top four challenge.
Prediction: Munster to win by 8
Benetton v Ulster (Treviso, Saturday, 19.15)
Ditto from the above when referring to teams that like the Stormers have fallen a bit from grace. Ulster are on the same number of points as the Stormers, but points differential gives them ninth place to the Stormers’ 10th.
The log could see a lot of movement when it comes to the jockeying for top eight this week, with 11th placed Benetton also bunched together with Ulster and the Stormers on 23 points.
Who will win? Don’t have a clue as Benetton will probably be without most of their players on international duty and they got smashed by the Ospreys last time out. There again, Ulster aren’t what they were and look vulnerable.
Prediction: Ulster to win by less than 7.
Connacht v Cardiff Rugby (Cardiff, Saturday, 21.35)
Connacht are always difficult in Galway and there must be some uncertainty in the Cardiff ranks now that their impressive head coach Matt Sherratt has been seconded to be the Wales stand-in following the resignation of Warren Gatland. A Cardiff loss will be good for the South African challenge as they are currently challenging the Sharks for a top four spot.
Prediction: Connacht to win by 8
Dragons v Glasgow Warriors (Newport, Sunday, 16.00)
The Bulls are likely to win in Pretoria and if they do they will go into second place above Glasgow and have to wait until this last game of the weekend to see if they stay there.
It is likely that Glasgow will win because the Dragons have been rank this season, but the visitors will be missing at least half their team to international duty and the Dragons can be difficult at home on some days.
This might just be one of those days but as the Dragons log position indicates, even when they are competitive they don’t tend to get over the line.
Prediction: Glasgow to win by less than 7
Log situation:
- Leinster 48 points after 10 games;
- Glasgow Warriors 37 points after 10 games;
- Vodacom Bulls 35 points after 9 games;
- Hollywoodbets Sharks 29 points after 9 games;
- Cardiff Rugby 29 points after 10 games;
- Scarlets 27 points after 10 games;
- Munster 26 points after 10 games;
- Edinburgh 24 points after 10 games;
- Ulster 23 points after 10 games;
- DHL Stormers 23 points after 10 games;
- Benetton 23 points after 10 games;
- Ospreys 22 points after 10 games;
- Emirates Lions 19 points after 8 games;
- Connacht 19 points after 10 games;
- Zebre 16 points after 10 games;
- Dragons 8 points after 10 games.
