URC PREVIEW: More settled coastal teams suggest SA success

There are a lot of positive things to be said about the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, but one of the remaining negatives of the competition from a South African viewpoint is the logistical disadvantage that local teams struggle with.

 While northern hemisphere teams come here just once a season, and usually on one overnight flight, it is a different story for South Africans - they head across the equator several times in the season if you add in the participation in the Investec Champions Cup, with games in the two competitions often poorly timed. It was poor timing that led Jake White to take an understrength team to what should have been a prestigious Champions Cup quarterfinal last season.

Couple that with the fact that the SA teams are still often doing the travel the hard way, like the Hollywoodbets Sharks did last week when they flew to Galway via Maputo, the Middle East and Dublin, and you can understand why there are at least some top local players who privately confess they year for the days of Super Rugby.

Back then it was considered tough touring Australia and New Zealand, and there too there was a disadvantage, but at least there was just one four match tour, and two long flights - to the Antipodes and back.

Of course though there are benefits, and those probably outweigh the negatives, and being committed across so many competitions has had the effect of growing SA’s rugby depth, even if it doesn’t always make economic sense and the top franchises can say hallelujah to the cash injection provided by their equity partners in that regard.

CURRIE CUP SCHEDULING NOT URC’S FAULT

It is also hardly the URC’s fault that the Carling Currie Cup was scheduled for when it was, and the fact they had to play a domestic final before going to Galway probably played as much of a role in the Sharks not being at the races in the second half against Connacht as their travel.

The same can be said for the DHL Stormers in their defeat to the Ospreys, which also included a second half fade, although in their case the rescheduling of the first round derbies to accommodate the Currie Cup led them to be underdone, and not the other way around.

The good news though from a South African viewpoint is that both the coastal teams should feel more settled this week. At least both have claimed to be, and it makes sense - the buildup week to their games against the Dragons (Sharks) and Zebre (Stormers) won’t have been impacted by travel.

And although the Dragons did shock the Ospreys two weeks ago and the Zebre knocked over 2022/23 champions Munster in the shock of the tournament so far, the Sharks and the Stormers should both be strong favourites to win. The two Gauteng teams, the Emirates Lions and the Vodacom Bulls, have altitude in early summer in afternoon games to their advantage, so it could well be a weekend where the SA teams succeed where they fell just short last week by making it a perfect round of four victories.

Given their respective finishes on the final log over the past few seasons, the game of the weekend is the Bulls against Ulster at Loftus, with the visitors needing to stand up from their defeat to the Lions last week.

The same does count for both Edinburgh, who play the Lions, and Ulster that counts for the Sharks and Stormers - they should be more settled. Plus more acclimatised to the altitude. But they are playing away at venues where the hosts should win or they just aren’t as good as we think they are.

ROUND 3 PREVIEWS AND PREDICTIONS

Scarlets v Connacht (Llanelli, Friday 20.35)

Scarlets broke ranks by being the first Welsh team to express interest in leaving the URC for the English Premiership, something there does appear to be appetite for in the Welsh rugby public (meaning an Anglo-Welsh league). So far in their seasons in the URC they’ve done little to suggest they’d add to another league and will be up against it against a Connacht team that did well in recovering at home to the Sharks. The important words though are at home - Connacht are seldom quite as good away from home. This will be a close game.

Prediction: Scarlets to win by less than 7

Cardiff Rugby v Glasgow Warriors (Cardiff, Friday 20.35)

Glasgow recovered from their opening round defeat to Ulster by thumping Benetton at home in round 2. Again, the words at home are important - Glasgow are particularly hard to beat at The Scotstoun, where they haven’t lost for ages. They aren’t bad away either, as their wins in Limerick and Pretoria to win last season’s competition testify. So they should be okay in Cardiff.

Prediction: Glasgow to win by 10

Emirates Lions v Edinburgh (Johannesburg, Saturday 13.45)

Another of those silly kick-off times. Silly that is if you want the spectators and the players to be safe and comfortable, maybe not so silly if you are the Lions, who should be favoured to win in a game at altitude in the early afternoon (well it’s just about lunch time really). They were even earlier last week, when the Lions produced the best South African performance of the weekend to beat Ulster. Provided they’ve buried the tendency to be inconsistent that blighted them before, the Lions should do something similar against Edinburgh.

Prediction: Lions to win by 9

Vodacom Bulls v Ulster (Pretoria, Saturday 16.00)

This is the game of the weekend from a South African viewpoint. The Bulls have all their Springboks back, while Ulster need to respond after last week’s defeat down the road in Johannesburg. The Bulls weren’t all that flush against Edinburgh but the return of some star players should lift them.

Prediction: Bulls to win by 8

Benetton v Leinster (Treviso, Saturday 18.15)

Benetton are reckoned to be many to be likely challengers this season, but they didn’t look like it when they lost heavily to Glasgow last week. They need a response, and at least will be at home in Treviso this time, but Leinster looked like they were picking up momentum when they beat the Scarlets last time out after a narrow squeak against Edinburgh in round 1. They could be pushed close on Benetton’s home ground but must start as favourites.

Prediction: Leinster to win by 7

Dragons v Hollywoodbets Sharks (Newport, Saturday 18.15)

The Sharks made just one change to the side that lost late against Connacht, which can be seen as an endorsement of the intensity put in during the first part of that game. What happened after that? Well, it’s been written enough now, let’s just call it the factors that skipper Victor Tshituka mentioned but didn’t list. The Sharks won away against the Dragons en route to EPCR Challenge Cup success last year, and should do so again.

Prediction: Sharks by 12

Munster v Ospreys (Cork, Saturday 20.35)

Note that this game is being played in Cork, and not Munster’s more regular venue of Thomond Park in Limerick. It is unclear what that might mean, but Munster have to bounce back from their shock defeat to Zebre. In fact, they were fortunate to edge out Connacht in the first round, so they need to start improving. They beat Ospreys in last season’s quarterfinal and unless something has gone horribly wrong with Munster in the off-season, they should produce a similar result.

Prediction: Munster to win by 14

Zebre v DHL Stormers (Parma, Saturday 20.35)

The manner of the Stormers’ loss, being defeated in a game they should really have won and looked like winning for much of the way, against the Ospreys will be seen by some as the same old story when it comes to overseas games for the Cape team. The truth though is that the Stormers have turned around their overseas drought since this time last year and there was enough even in defeat in Bridgend to suggest they should prevent Zebre from repeating last week’s giant slaying of Munster. If they don’t, then they are in trouble, and it will be the same old story, in the sense it will be repeating the sequence of 2023/2024.

Prediction: Stormers to win by 8