Boks announcing later will keep England guessing

It has been a trend for the Springboks in the Rassie Erasmus era to announce the team for a Saturday game early in the week, usually a Tuesday. The premise has been we know what we’ve got and they may as well know what we’ve got as we are confident this team will do the job.

However, given how Erasmus in his second stint as Bok head coach (he was director of rugby in the four years between the 2019 RWC triumph and the one in 2023) has mixed up his selections from one game to the next in the name of experimentation and growing the depth of experience, that has changed.

And may explain why the trend of an earlier announcement has changed, with the team announced for last Sunday's game in Edinburgh only being made on the Friday, in other words two days before the game. The team for Saturday's Twickenham test against England will only be announced on Thursday.

England, who have lost flanker Tom Curry and wing Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, both of whom suffered head injuries in the loss to Australia at Twickenham last weekend, won’t be 100 per cent sure of what team Erasmus will select this weekend.

It can be assumed that after making 11 changes for the Scotland game, Erasmus will revert mostly to the team that clinched the Castle Lager Rugby Championship with a 48-7 win over Argentina in Nelspruit a month and a half ago.

That was the strongest Springbok team and the result underlined that. Yet, returning to a full strength team doesn’t necessarily clear up what Erasmus might be thinking in key positions. For instance, it was Manie Libbok, and not Handre Pollard, who lined up in the No 10 at Mbombela Stadium.

And he played a blinder, winning the man-of-the-match award with a performance that reminded everyone of the dynamic he can bring to his team’s attacking game.

TWICKENHAM WILL REQUIRE A RELIABLE GOAL-KICKER

It would be assumed that for a Twickenham test, which is likely to be hard fought and tight, Erasmus won’t want to risk starting without a reliable and tested frontline place-kicker. The Libbok move worked at Mbombela because he was freed from the kicking duties, with scrumhalf Jaden Hendrikse doing the kicking from the tee instead.

Hendrikse kicked the early goals but was less successful once he got deeper into the game. All opportunities for posts against England will need to be taken. So Pollard, who is also the right option if you are looking for a measure of control and calmness as opposed to tempo and the frenetic energy that prevailed against the Pumas, will probably start.

But unless they have spies at the Bok training sessions, the England coach Steve Borthwick won’t know that for certain. And the identity of the Bok flyhalf, be it Libbok or Pollard, does make a big difference to how his team should prepare for the game.

The edge that the Boks have because of the uncertainty that makes the later announcement the common sense thing to do.

FULLBACK POSER

Yet it doesn’t end just at flyhalf. After his brilliant breakthrough season for the Boks, Aphelele Fassi should surely be the starting fullback, but Willie le Roux has the experience of playing against England at Twickenham before and also brings crucial aspects to the Bok attacking game with his distribution skills.

Le Roux’s ability to help out as first receiver is an important cog in the Bok attacking game when he plays, and may be even more important for the addition of a bit of unpredictability when Pollard plays than when Libbok, or for that matter Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, is at pivot.

LAW ADJUSTMENT INCENTIVISES BOX KICKING

Perhaps an even bigger area than those two for England to ponder over before Thursday is scrumhalf. Hendrikse did not produce his best game for the Boks in the No 9 jersey at Murrayfield, and struggled with the pressure placed on him by the way the Scots attacked the breakdowns, not always legally.

Hendrikse tends to take a step that the other two scrumhalves in the squad, Grant Williams and Cobus Reinach, don’t do before clearing the ball from the base, and it gives the impression of slowing down the Bok attack.

Williams has made a difference for the Sharks with his greater pace around the park and incisiveness around the fringes when he has come on for Hendrikse recently, and it happened again late in the game at Murrayfield.

However, while Williams seems the right fit for the tempo game, the law adjustments around the shielding of the catcher in a contestable kicking duel has made the box kick more important again as it has created a proper contest for the ball and therefore a proper attacking opportunity. Hendrikse is the go-to man if that’s what you are looking for and if he is afforded better protection by the referee in London than he was in Edinburgh that is even more so the case.

Let’s not forget he was the scrumhalf in that big win in Nelspruit where the Bok attack cooked like it had seldom done before.

Reinach, who some of the England players will know well from his years both in England and Europe as a whole, was one of the players who played no role last week so could well be Erasmus’ choice in that he is vastly experienced and even though 34 now is also very quick around the field.

RASSIE HAS INTERESTING BENCH SPLIT OPTIONS

There should be less uncertainty from England over who will start for the Boks at forward, with regular skipper Siya Kolisi and his fellow loose-trio teammates Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jasper Wiese certain to return to their starting roles while the Boks have strong interchangeable front-rows. Bongi Mbonambi tends to start at hooker with Malcolm Marx bringing the impact and that should be the case again.

Where Erasmus could confound though is in the split between forwards and backs on the bench. He went seven/one last week, in other words to his most radical bench selection of last year’s World Cup final, but it is unlikely he will reprise that at Twickenham.

Indeed, given the England defensive frailties exposed by the Wallabies, this might even be a time to go five/three, which would accommodate Le Roux and Libbok, or maybe even Lukhanyo Am, who showed at Murrayfield that he has his old stepping ability well and truly back as part of his armoury.

Erasmus probably won’t do that, the smart money should be on a six/two split, but who knows what he might do. There’ll be at least some element of doubt for England, and that will remain the case until Thursday’s announcement.